In today's episode, Tyler examines the market's positive performance and analyzes how it signals potential Presidential outcomes. He discusses five key investment themes predicting a Trump victory and explores the remarkable impacts on Tesla and Elon Musk based on the outcome. Lastly, Tyler examines the compelling case for a continued market rise regardless of who wins the election. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day today. Welcome to Election Day. I know that this has been day that just about everybody has been waiting on for some time now. Hearing it a lot from a lot of people out there. Whether it’s anxiety or confidence about this election, I think the most the emotions are just all over there, all over the place to hear today.

But I hope you all were able to get out there and vote today. Or an early voting on the stock market front. It was a good day today, which was one of our five key investment themes to watch for today that we viewed as predicting a Trump victory coming here for us this evening. So we’ll take a quick look at what we wrote to members here this morning with our five key themes. In the first and likely most important, was the market itself rallying today. We looked at this as being indicative of a Trump victory here and especially what we saw in the small caps leading the way today. We think that that is a good sign. There is an extra tell here, if you will, as Trump tariffs would encourage US Based small businesses.

[00:01:38]:
You’d see money from overseas coming back, plants being built more so here in the US and for a number of other reasons, we expect small caps would do well in a Trump victory. The second here being Tesla, as Elon Musk has really staked a large portion of his reputation here on Trump’s presidency. The look, the future for Elon Musk looks very different depending on who is in office. You know, one of the things I’ve talked to a lot of people about recently, if you saw the starship launch where they were able to catch the rocket out of air with the chopsticks is what they call them, the arms that they caught the rocket ship with. One thing that might amaze you to hear is that in order to get the permission to launch one of their starships, it took longer to get the paperwork done to be approved for a launch than it took to build the most recent iteration of the rocket itself. Absolutely astounding levels of bureaucracy when it takes longer for a piece of paper to get across a desk than it does to build a rocket ship. You know that something is terribly, terribly wrong. But we saw it just this week with Dims in the mainstream media or just dims with a big platform in general, calling for Elon Musk to be either censored or reject his ownership of Twitter.

Right. That Twitter should be Censoring more people or Dim’s calling for other companies to step up and replace SpaceX and Starlink. Right. For them to lose contracts with the government. Not based off of grounds of merit. Right. But purely based off of emotion. That is again, astounding levels of corruption in the government.

You know, think about what SpaceX and Starlink has done recently. SpaceX just rescued two astronauts from orbit from the International Space Station that were stranded there by Boeing where Boeing received double the amount of funding that SpaceX did for the exact same project. Right. So SpaceX did it cheaper, faster, better, and yet they try to demonize SpaceX. It’s criminal levels of, of corruption there. Really it is. And think about what Starlink has done. Giving free Internet access to the, to the thousands, if not more, tens of thousands after natural disasters like we’ve seen during hurricane season.

[00:04:35]:
You can’t tell me that didn’t save lives. Giving people access to communication outlets during that time. So we had SpaceX saving astronauts from orbit. We had Starlink saving lives after national disasters, natural disasters, and they tried to demonize this guy. So I think it’s safe to say that Elon’s, Elon Musk’s future looks very. There was also another dim talking head out there who called for arresting Elon Musk. Right. So there’s no doubt that his future looks very different depending on who is in office.

But so good to see Tesla up over 3 and a half percent on the day to day. We look at that as another tell. Interest rates were the next one which we said would go higher if they were, if they were predicting a Trump when we started out the day positive, but did finish slightly lower. You know, we’ve talked about this downward trend in yield, so it could be a little bit of that as well. We had a pretty good bond auction today. So after the close here we really would probably rate that one at about a 50, 50. The next one here being bitcoin. There is no doubt that Trump is the pro bitcoin president.

Someone just put this out today. I’ll see if I have it here in my notes really quickly that bitcoin as a, as a crypto as a whole under the Biden Harris administration has had to spend over half a billion dollars in legal fees, you know, just to get through things like loophole or jump through hoops for the sec, all kinds of different things. And Trump has already come out and in faith and endorsed really in favor of bitcoin. So Bitcoin being up 3% on the day, we Would look at as another tell here as well. Then we had djt, which is Trump media, otherwise true social right, which came out of the gate strong today, was up over 13%, then got halted, sold off, incredibly got back to positive, ultimately ended up closing down about 1%. Really a weird day of trading there with the halts, multiple halts on the day today. So I guess we could look at that one as negative since it did finish down on the day. But overall we got three out of the five positive here and again, two out of the five that were negative had some strange things going on.

[00:07:09]:
So we still look at this as telling us that the, that the betting market odds still in the favor of Trump as well. But just talking about the market and our five factors here, we would say that Trump wins coming tonight. That remains our view. It’s been our view here for some time now. It’s just a waiting game at this point. The one key point to really remember here is that in recent history, the market goes up no matter who has won, especially after the election. And remember, just two presidents in recent history have exited office with a lower stock market. The exception here being Bush who came in near the peak of the dot com bubble and left office amidst the 2008 financial crisis.

Then before that, you have to go all the way back to Nixon to find a president where the S P had negative returns. So we, we would see if, I mean again, if Trump’s in office, we think it’d be a phenomenal period. But even with Harrison office, you know, the establishment, we talk about this here often as well. The establishment is firmly invested in this market. This is where they save their money as well. They don’t want to see the stock market implode because it means it would hurt their bottom line as well. So they don’t want to see that either. But after the last 10 elections, stocks have increased in value nine times out of 10 with a median gain of 17.2% one year later.

So we’ve talked about this here for some time as well. No matter who wins tonight, we do expect the stock market to continue higher from here for very different reasons. You know, for Trump, it’s deregulation, tariffs on, on international products, but mostly a booming economy, Trump tax cuts, what we’ve deemed what we called the Trump economic miracle. Now, under Harris, you would be looking at a, a very manipulated type of stock market. What we really wrote the big bribe about, when the stock market remains near or at all time highs, it’s very tough to complain when people come home from work and see that their 401ks are sitting at or near all time highs. It makes people less likely to complain about things at the end of the day. We would call that financial manipulation. But again, key point being that no matter who wins, we do continue to see the stock market heading higher from here.

[00:09:49]:
The one area where we where you could see some issues is in a contested election but we think those would be short term issues as well. All right, so looking at our market action on the day before I get to that though don’t forget although it’d be easy to right now that we also have an FOMC meeting tomorrow. You know, with, with the election going on this is really taking a back seat here. Excuse me, the meetings on Thursday. Excuse me. And the the odds remain here for a 25 basis point cut. Those odds were at about 100% just yesterday. Now a 2 1/2% chance of the Fed staying put.

That we’ll see. We think that the Fed has telegraphed it so much the continued rate cuts that 25 basis points does still firmly remain our view here. But stay tuned. We’ll be reporting on that here as well. I’ll be back Thursday with the podcast. We’ll get back to video then as well. I had a few minor difficulties with video the last couple of podcasts so I’ll get back to that here though on Thursday. All right, so taking a look at our market action on the day to day again, small caps having a good day today the again and we look at that as another tell here of a Trump victory.

Small caps leading the way up 1.88% to 2,260. Next up here the NASDAQ up 1.43% to 18,439. And I’ll also point out here just what you want to see. Semis leading the way up 1.65% on the day today. Next up the S P 500 up 1.23% to 5,782. And a very broad rally here from the S P 500 finishing with over 444. Over 440 of the 500 names higher on the day to day. That is what you want to see.

[00:11:54]:
And lastly here the Dow Jones up 1.02% to 42,221. And just what you want to see from this group transports leading the way up 1.74% on the way and just barely shy of hitting a 52 week high here as well. You know interesting that in the last 30 or so trading sessions, we’ve only had two 1% movers. October 31st, the spooky Halloween where we got a 1% sell off. And then the day before the election or the day of the election, excuse me, up over 1%. So there’s been some interesting trading action here, although pretty quiet really without the 1% kind of moves here. But I just thought I’d point that out. All right, next up here, looking at our internals on the day to day, back to back days here of very good internals.

We had way more advancing stocks than declining stocks today. Coming in over 4 1/2 to 1 positive on the NYSE. Just shy of 3 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ. 52 week highs and lows also coming in positive on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. Coming in over 2 to 1 positive. Well over 2 to 1 positive on the NYSE. Just slightly positive though on the NASDAQ. Lastly here, volume coming in with a big 80% upside volume on the NYSE.

That’s got to be the first time in a while that we’ve seen a reading like that from volume and 77% upside volume from the NASDAQ today. So overall very good internals on the day. Next up here are sectors. We finished with 11 out of our 11s P500 sectors higher on the day to day. Excuse me. So good to see all 11 sectors higher. We were led by Consumer Discretionary which is not far away. Just if I’m not mistaken, pennies away from an all time high there, followed by industrials and utilities.

[00:13:59]:
Then our laggards on the day, if you want to call them that, materials, energy and consumer staples again, all of those still finishing higher on the day today. Finally here for today, our VRA commodity. Watch some green on the screen here. Gold now up a quarter of 1% to 2,752 2. Silver up half a percent to three $32.78 an ounce. Copper now up 7/10 of 1% to $4 and 46 cents a pound. Let’s run one quick screen there. Yes, copper finishing up again, 7/10 of 1% now.

Oil higher on the day as well, up nearly 8/10 of 1% to $72 a barrel. And finally here for today, Bitcoin also higher on the day, up 2.85% at 69, $261 of Bitcoin. Did briefly get back above $70,000 of Bitcoin earlier in the session today folks. That is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market Close can sign up at vraletter. Com, click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. So make sure you get out there and vote today. Hope you have a great day.

We’ll see you back here again tomorrow for the Close.