Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today. It was certainly an interesting day of market action today. We got a lot to cover here today. We’ll try to do so quickly, but we began the day with economic reports, more earnings data out as well. And throughout the session we did see a couple of all time highs today as well.
We’ll cover all of that and more here today. But out of the gate this morning, at least in futures trading, our major indexes were lower this morning until we got the latest look at GDP. We got Q3 GDP, the first look at it back today coming in just slightly below estimates of 2.9% coming in at 2.8%. So still I saw a lot of speculation about the economy out there today. 2.8% at the end of the day is still solid growth. Right? We may not be growing at the pace that we all want to, the pace that we know that the US Economy can grow at, the potential of the US Economy when animal spirits are actually unleashed on this economy, as we saw from Trump’s first term. But again, 2.8 growth is certainly not a contracture anything contractual about this economy here. So certainly not a bad reading there.
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And from there we started to get some life in our major indexes out of the gate this morning we saw the small caps go positive first, followed by all of our other major indexes as well. And the NASDAQ did hit an all time intraday high during the session today. So I’ll get to our market action here, more so in a minute and break it down for you. But we’ve also got some big economic data coming back. Also I’ll just briefly mention ADP jobs report came in above expectations. You know, we talk about this here often. Whether it’s inflation data, economic data or jobs data, many of these are heavily manipulated. And we get the jobs report, the big one, the non farms payroll on Friday, again ahead of the US Election, we would not be surprised at all to see another heavily manipulated number, a number really skewed by the amount of government jobs being created.
Jobs that people don’t really want. Right? These aren’t innovation jobs. These are just getting by kind of jobs really. You know, we talk about this here often as well. In the jobs number you see a lot of manipulation of people who do lose a good job and then have to take two jobs in order to make ends meet. And yet they still count this as a net one positive job for, for one person right in these numbers. Heavily manipulated statistics, very tough to find any real data there. But it’s not the news that matters, it’s the market’s reaction to that news.
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Then tomorrow we’ll get the latest look at inflation with PCE data coming out. This is known as the Fed’s favored gauge on inflation here. So it’ll tell you a little bit about the Fed’s next steps which we also have a Fed meeting coming up here in just seven days as well. And right now, as the CME’s Fed watch tool is showing, the expectation is for a 25 basis point cut, 94.6% odds. Currently for a 25 basis point cut there was a big a, a large substantial percentage probability, I should say of a 50 basis point cut just a month ago in this data. Now a roughly or no, it is a 0% probability according to the CME’s Fed Watch tool of a 50 basis point cut with a roughly 5% chance of the Fed staying put. I would imagine that whoever gets into office really is what’s affecting that decision because we all know that the Fed is not apolitical as they are meant to be, right? Heavily skewed towards the Democrat party. But looking now onto our markets for a quick second here.
Well I will point out as well the 10 year yield was lower earlier in the session, still finished down on the day by about 2/10 of 1% at a 4.26. So again at the open today, all of our major indexes were lower. We got a midday rally. It looked like it wanted to continue for this market but ultimately we finished closer to the lows of the day which is not what you want to see here. And it didn’t help that we had AMD’s earnings yesterday. AMD was down, let’s see where they finished here, down over 10% on the session today. SMCI also had some more financial troubles today as their auditor is now saying they cannot trust anything from their books. SMCI which if you remember earlier this year went on an absolute tear.
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One of the best performing stocks of the year, absolutely up over 300% from peak to trough, trough to peak in this scenario. Now it’s almost come full circle here. The Stock was down 32% on the day today. So that certainly didn’t help our market action here. But before we get to our market action today, we had some big earnings after the close today where we saw beats, you know, these weren’t bad Numbers here we had Meta and Microsoft both reporting top and bottom line growth. However, that’s not what investors were looking for. They were looking for the guidance. They were looking for them to crush expectations and it just didn’t quite meet those levels.
Let’s see what those stocks are doing in after hours trading right now. Internet’s going a little slow here. Bear with me. All right, we’ve got Microsoft now higher in after hours trading was slightly lower earlier. Meta was definitely lower after their report, still down 1.7% on the day to day. So not exactly the reaction that we were looking for here. Coinbase also reported earnings after the close today. Did see good growth over the last year however missing on estimates down 2.4% which is you know, interesting here that Coinbase hasn’t performed better with Bitcoin nearing another all time high here.
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We’ll get to that later in the podcast and then don’t forget tomorrow is another massive day of earnings. We get Uber before the open tomorrow. Then we’ll get Amazon, Apple and Intel after the close. So stay tuned. We’ll be reporting on those here as well. All right, so now looking at our major indexes on the day to day, as I mentioned, we did finish lower across the board, finishing close to the lows of the day today, although we got some intraday highs here which I’ll cover as well. Small caps did finish down our lead with we’re right right with the Dow for our leadership on the day down just over 2/10 of 1% to 2,233. The Dow Jones also down 2/10 of 1% to 42,141.
Next up the S&P 500 down just over 3.10 of 1% to 5,813. And lastly here the Nasdaq which did hit an all time intraday high during the session today, did ultimately finish down half a percent to 18,607. You know it doesn’t help when you have the semis down 2.4% on the day to day. Although we look at this as is pointing to will be a buying opportunity, we’re still closer to overbought levels than to oversold levels here. You know this is when we’ll use a little bit of patience here but we’re ready to get back to adding positions here and we believe the smart money move continues to be by the dip. There’s just so much uncertainty out there right now. We hear it from clients every day, hear it from people I talk to that everyone is so worried about the selection and rightfully so. And we’re seeing it show up in sentiment indexes as well.
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The Fear and greed index just hit its lowest level in a month and a half here. Still slightly in greed territory. Just barely, just three points away from neutral at a 58. You know that this one could come down a little bit. We also get back the AAII Investor Sentiment survey tomorrow, which we saw a massive drop in bulls week over week last week. We do expect that number to come in lower again tomorrow. Again we’ll use these pullbacks as buying opportunities here. Yo is interesting on a day with the Nasdaq.
I get to the Nasdaq finish lower. We still still hit an intraday all time high earlier in the session. Yet sentiment is nowhere near excessively bullish here, which as contrarians we do like to see that. Next up, looking at our internals on the day to day, we did have better readings earlier in the session, but we did get more advancing stocks than declining stocks on the NYSE. Slightly negative on the NASDAQ today. 52 week highs to lows were our bright spot on the session. Coming in over three to one positive on the nyse, not quite as positive but still positive on the NASDAQ here. Then lastly, volume coming in negative for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq but just barely.
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So so no real red flags there from the internals. You know less than ideal numbers sure, but not bad numbers here. Next up taking a look at our sectors on the day to day. We finished with six out of our 11 sectors higher on the day today. So probably our bright spot here. And we got another all time high here as well from the communication services sector. You know we talk about this here often. It’s mostly made up of Google and meta.
So it helped that Google was up a big 2.82% on the day to day. Think about that as well. This is a nearly two and a quarter trillion dollar company. So yes, a 2.8% move is a a very big move here. After that we had financials, real estate and materials higher on the day. Our laggard on the day was the tech sector so not what you want to see. Followed by consumer staples, utilities and health care. Finally here for today, our VRA Commodity watch.
We had gold crossing above $2800 an ounce for the first time ever today got up to 2801 so just barely crossed that threshold now still up 610 of 1% at $2799 an ounce. Now we got silver down 1 1/2% on the day to $33.93 an ounce. Copper now essentially flat on the day at $4.36 a pound. And oil trying to rally back here above $70 a barrel, up 2.8% to $69.09 a barrel. And finally here, bitcoin, you know, trying to get back to those all time highs. At the highs of the day today got to $72,900 of Bitcoin. That is $840 away from its all time high at 73,740. Bitcoin still up half a percent on the day at $72,752 a Bitcoin.
Folks, that is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up@vraletter.com, click the podcast link at the top, and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.