In today's episode, Kip breaks down the exciting day of trading that saw our major indexes finish higher across the board, led by Tech and the Semis. Kip also covers the latest in the commodity market and what the VRA expects for the future of precious metals. Lastly, he dives into this morning's disinflationary PPI data. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope your day was a good one today. If you are long and strong in this market, then you had a very good day today. Almost didn’t matter what you own now. Some did better than others, but it’s a very good day to really across the board and especially in the areas that we care the most about technology. We’ve been loading up on the semis and adding a new position in the Nasdaq 100 Leveraged ETF there. If you’re with us, you know what I’m talking about. And bitcoin. Had a good day. I love bitcoin here. Gold. Gold is nearing all time high. I’ve got some data on that that even when I see it, frankly, it surprises me because gold and the miners, this is a stealth bull market.

It’s been so incredibly powerful, you know, much, much stronger than the equity markets have been from the bear market lows. But even surprises me when I see it because it doesn’t feel like that, you know, it doesn’t feel like that’s been the case, but it certainly has been. And again, it’s a stealth bull market. I think we know, we know the signs to look for. I’ll cover those in a minute. When this thing really goes parabolic. And that is what’s going to happen here. Physical gold, silver, and miners, especially the junior miners, because they have yet to move.

But when the junior miners move, folks, you got to understand, I’ve been around. I’ve been around this group for a long time. I remember being in the room with my dad when he bought gold about a week before the peak. When you go for the very first time around, when I guess Reagan had just been elected, we were 15% inflation, 20%. 50% interest rates. No, sorry, 50% inflation towards interest rates. My dad got a cd at 19%. He also bought gold at the top and he paid again.

[00:01:52]:
We didn’t see those prices again for a couple of decades, but, you know, it helped get me hooked because the broker that was telling him about it made the case, you know, the reasons to own gold, and they were all great reasons. So it always just stuck in my head. But since then, you know, I paid a lot, a very close attention, not just to physical gold and silver, but really the miners, because that’s where the explosive moves happen. And yeah, we’ve had a good move, but we haven’t had explosive move, certainly not the junior miners. They have been deadville, completely dead on arrival. But that’s just energy that’s being built up. And it’s frustrating because they just sit there. In some cases, they go down as gold goes higher.

It makes no sense at all. But I was going to come back to it. I don’t want to forget. Let’s just cover it. Now, the reason that happens is there is so little institutional interest in the miners, period. But number two, specifically in the junior miners, because like any small cap or micro cap, look, small caps have been in a bear market for two years. We’re just coming out of that, you know, small caps now have hit new 52 week highs just before this latest shakeout. But the miners have been in a much more severe bear market again, even as gold is hitting all time highs.

[00:03:14]:
So it’s really frustrating. This is just energy that’s being built up. And this is why we’re big believers in monthly dollar cost average, specifically in our VRA ten baggers. Folks, I’ve done this a long time. I know the benefits and the rewards from dollar cost averaging in your favorite investments. This is, if you haven’t heard before, you have to now. You’re going to have to hear my Peter lynch story one more time. Peter lynch, one of my heroes when it comes to investing.

He was a stock picker, and was he ever ran Fidelity Magellan, still to this day, the top performing mutual fund money manager. Now, mutual funds aren’t what they used to be, of course, but when he was, we didn’t have ETF’s and Peter Lynch’s manager money, right? He was Fidelity Magellan. It was Magellan’s largest fund and he managed it. And he averaged something like 28%. Can you imagine, 28% a year in a mutual fund? And he really, really likes picking small, medium to mid cap stocks. That’s not easy game to do when you manage that much money. The story with lynch is that he invested, he said he invested in what he knew, and that’s what he recommended that investors do. Buy what you know, invest in what you know.

Number one, if you know something, you’re more apt to be able to find the best investment, right, if you know the field. And number two, if you know it, you’re interested in it. So now it’s a win win. Once you start buying a position, now your heart’s in it, your wallets in it, right? Because you got hard money in the game, you got skin in the game. And so that’s why double cost averaging really works. Start with a small position and continue to build. Your interest level builds. And then you watch what happens.

[00:04:59]:
You get to know the company, you start to understand the price movement of the stock, the channels, how it, how it trades versus the oscillators, all these kinds of things. And then, well, really, I remember first reading this, going, what? You know, remember I was young when I read this. And it’s like, yeah, I don’t make any money in my average holding for like the first three to five years. But after, after about year five, that’s when it gets fun. So Peter lynch made most of the money in his investments that he made in years five through ten or on. He was, he didn’t believe in selling unless it was a reason to sell. Management change, right? A product stops working, changes in the marketplace, changes in regulations, things like this that would impact it. Otherwise he was long and strong.

As long as, why pay capital gains taxes if your investment now is really starting to pay off and you’re reaping the rewards of being a long term investor? So I’ve always been hooked on that. I’ve also seen the benefit of personally and in our recommendations of being a long term investor. So anyway, that’s what I think is happening now with the junior miners, miners in period gold, really? Because again, it’s a stealthable market that we’re seeing here, but it’s not, it’s going to be that way for long. I don’t think so. Central bank gold purchases, right, at all time highs. We know that the wealthy are stocking it away. And again, yeah, I love bitcoin, but you know, my gold position is far bigger than my bitcoin position, okay? And I’m starting to. Starting to not even that out, but I am starting to allocate more to bitcoin that I am to gold, just because I think over the next five to ten years, the move we’re going to see as bitcoin gains more acceptance and as the blockchain has more uses and we see tokenization, digitization really start to take off.

[00:06:58]:
Bitcoin is just going to become, it’s going just to become another currency accepted as that. And these doubts will go away. Look, there’s never going to be a risk free time to own bitcoin. That’s just not going to happen. And that’s why when I see people that are all in and they’ve got everything, they’re Hodlers and they’re all in on bitcoin, they got all the money in it. I wish I could sit them down and have a conversation and just say what if. What if, right? What if this is a CIA creation or some other nefarious. And let’s face it, that’s what the CIA is, or other other global intelligence apparatus and institutions.

What if this is a creation of them, by them? And what if one of these days, it’s just going to go, everything’s gone, because, you know, no one can tell you with even a 70% likelihood that bitcoin could not be ripped off and stolen. I’ve never believed that. That’s not possible. Okay, so there are just like, with every investment, there are big risks in bitcoin, you never go. But number two, you never go all in on any investment, okay? Unless you just don’t believe in buying stocks at all and you’ve got all your assets in your home or other assets, again, that you know and that you understand. It’s fine. I’m not saying you have to be in stocks, but other. In an.

[00:08:26]:
In a normally diversified portfolio, you would never, ever, ever put everything into one investment. Okay? Now, I think we all know that. So there are risks to bitcoin. But anyway, the point being, gold is. Look, it’s. It’s. Well, here’s the data. I’ve got it.

I shared it this morning in our letter. Again, I’ll share it now before I forget about it. From the bear market lows of October 2022, the s and P 500 is up 36%. Pretty good. Doesn’t include today. Right. We added another almost 1.7% today. All right, so we’re now close to 38%.

But anyway, from the October 2022 lows, SVF hundred is at 36%. Gold is up 56%. Almost twice as much as the SB 500. Again, when I talk to people like this, they’re like, are you sure about that? That doesn’t sound right. What? No one’s really talking about cold. It’s a stealth bull market, right? The most powerful kind. And then this is even better. The gold miners being GDX, the gold miner ETF is up 62% versus 36.

It is up double. I’m sorry, that’s not quite. You see what I’m saying? We’re approaching double, Bill. So again, phenomenal strength here in both gold and the miners, and no one’s talking about it. It is clearly a stealth bull market that is going to change. I don’t know exactly what’s going to, I think, what will happen here. I do know what’s going to happen. Follow GDX.

[00:09:56]:
Here’s your tell. If you’re looking for one tell as to when you should really begin to load up. Now go all in, but really load up on the miners. Okay? Be it to nugt, which is the two time leverage gold miner ETF, which we also recommend, and to own, or again, your favorite junior miner, whatever you want to, you know, in the space you want to own. But follow GDX. Followed the volume of GDX. The volume today was 13 million. I cannot.

That is. That is horrible. Horribly low volume. It was up 1.1% today, by the way. But GDX gold miner Tf only traded 13 million shares today. And if you want to pull up a long term chart. And when this group was really on fire, the last time it was really on fire would be the biggest bull market of all, which began, let’s see, began in 2003. But GDX didn’t exist until 2006.

But just from the financial crisis lows of 2008, where everything crashed, including gold, including the miners, everything crashed because again, in liquidity events, everything goes. And so that’s also something we have to be aware of. But GDX, I mean, it just absolutely soared. The GDX went from, look at it now, the lows of 2008, it was about $15 a share, and then by within three and a half years, it was $63 a share. So it went on a serious tear. But it’s the volume. Volume really started averaging about. I mean, you’re looking at 70, 80 million sheer volume during the heaviest time.

[00:11:44]:
But even during normal times, volume was still 40, 50 million shares a day. And again, we’re getting 13 million shares. Today was a low day. But anyway, that’s what you watch, because when the institutions finally show up to this group, and they will, when they finally show up to this group, remember, miners have been hurt. One of the things that hurt the miners has been the fact that inflation’s really hurt them. Their cost to mine have gone up so much that it’s eaten into their profits from the higher price of gold. So that’s just, that’s the reality, right? They haven’t been able to pass these higher costs on. Executives of mining companies are not the sharpest tools in the shed.

They’re nice people, but a lot of them hedge their own production, which never made any sense to me as an investor in a mining company. I’m frankly not looking for safety and security. I want you to be pure. I want pure leverage to a higher price of gold and silver or whatever the. The metal is, right? I want pure exposure to that group. But a lot of these guys get cute and fancy with it because they, you know, they know all their buddies at larger buying companies are hedging. So the first chance they get, they start hedging. What does that do? Limit your upside? I don’t, why would I want to invest in a company that does that? Especially not a junior miner.

[00:13:08]:
That’s really a sign to sell. If you’re involved in a junior miner that’s hedging their production, there’s no, no reason to own that. There’s just, there’s two, there’s better companies that give you pure, a pure play exposure. So. Yeah, but they’re not, they’re just not, they’re not advocates. They’re, this is the thing probably drives me the craziest about this group. They’re not advocates for their own industry. They don’t, they don’t, they don’t rally around the cause of gold and silver.

They don’t, you, you’ll never hear them ever, ever hear 90 98% of mining executives talk about the manipulation that’s been taking place for decades in gold and silver. Yet they won’t talk about it now. They ask them these questions. Why is it, you know, Joe Smith? Joe, why is it that I talk more about the manipulation that’s taking place has been proven many times over, including in court. You know, Goldman Sachs have been found guilty. JP Morgan has been found guilty of manipulation. This is not a secret. These are criminal cases, by the way, not just civilization.

Criminal cases. Right. Jamie Dimon involved in some of these. Why don’t you raise the specter of manipulation taking place in the mining, in your business? And they’re like, I don’t, they just don’t have it. They don’t have the gumption, I guess. And I don’t understand that. It makes no sense to me. So, you know, you got to be careful which miners you pick.

[00:14:36]:
That’s why, by the way, it’s, why would you like ETF’s? We use ETF’s now more than ever. That comes with the risk as well. Because when you had big sell offs like a week ago Monday, when the yen carry trade blew up for a night, and we wake up to Japan’s market down 13.4%, the Nikkei Dow, and that’s why we fell 1030 points on the Dow Jones on Monday. That was the reason. It has nothing to do with a supposedly weak employment report from the Friday before. This is all on Japan because Japan is the ultimate black swan risk. That’s the ultimate black swan risk right there. And so I really understood Monday’s decline because we were all worried about, okay, what’s Japan going to do Monday night when they open again? What’s going to happen here? Is this going to turn into, all right, this is what we’ve been worried about.

And it didn’t, you know, within two days, they regained all but 1% of the losses. And I think they’ve now recouped all those losses from that, from that, from that week ago Monday. So, but the problem with ETF’s is that when everybody owns them, most investors now, their exposure to the market is through ETF’s and index funds. So when you have big downdrafts in the market, these funds don’t have a choice. They have to sell. They might keep five to 10% of their funding cash, but if they see a big, they have to sell. And that’s what creates the cascading effect and that creates the massive selling pressure that we saw last Monday and that Japan saw again. That’s where their selling pressure came from as well.

[00:16:15]:
So it’s a global problem. It is a problem, but that also works both ways. That also works both ways when we saw it today, didn’t we? So, enough about the golden miners. I’ve made my case. There is going to come a time where the miners finally start to pick up. It might take gold at 3000 an ounce. I don’t know. But I do know, and we’ll cover this next.

Inflation is, it’s collapsing. Let’s just call it what it is. I have to tell you, I get a little frustrated with people that keep talking about how bad inflation is. That is not a story of today. That’s the story of last year. Now it’s a story of disinflation. And this is what we’ve been talking about. We’ve been pounding the table on this.

[00:16:57]:
A lot of people called us some fairly bad names for thinking that we didn’t really understand how the average American is being hurt. That never had anything to do with what we were talking about. Yeah, look, I’m an, I’m an Americana. I’m an average American. I understand how prices have gone up on everything. Fortunately, I’m not in the second America. I was born into it. I was raised through it right.

I understand what it’s like to be broken, not have two, three meals a day. Believe me, I understand what that pain’s like. But, you know, I worked my ass off and now I’m not in that second. I’m in the first American, by the way, that’s how that works, by the way, to the whiners and complainers out there. That’s how it works. You know, you won’t work everybody else, then guess what you’re going to wind up having. You might have to get in your sixties like me, but you’re going to wind up having success. And so stop complaining and understand what you think about your bring about.

Right. But the point being is that disinflation clearly is the theme. Now, we saw it in the PPI data today as just a great backdrop and a great set setting for gold, silver and the miners because we’ve got these catalysts coming up. I’ll talk about, about those more in a moment. Some really hyper bullish catalysts that are being front run now. And this is what we’ve been talking about. Right. Tyler covered it yesterday.

[00:18:14]:
Great podcast yesterday, talking about this very fact, this very topic of disinflation and the fact that, yeah, guess what, China, Asia, european, Europe, now they are exporting deflation. That’s the theme. That’s the theme that everyone should start getting ready for. And that’s why interest rates are going to plummet from here. And this sort of cuts both ways. We made the case when inflation was starting to skyrocket that there’s a flip side to that coin. You can make a very bullish case, a reason to own equities and of course, gold and silver and other invest bitcoin during times of inflation. And it worked, didn’t it? Because they kept going up.

But the deflationary theme, that’s really what the Fed is always, and central banks globally have always been most concerned with the one word that they hate the most is deflation. And that’s why we also pounding the table on the worst pitch here in history. Jay Powell, who’s now made his fifth major policy error since getting a job in 2018 from Trump, by the way, because the one word that bankers don’t like is deflation. That’s the word that scares them the most. Because in a deflationary environment, guess what starts to employ lending debt. That is something. Because if you and our entire system is based on debt, so if that starts to decline, you know, this is why they wanted to create inflation. This is why forever, they’re like, we just want to get to 2% inflation and we’re good, you know, so then they overdid it, of course.

[00:19:51]:
Money printing the plan, demic, we all know the story there. But I think, again, this is the case we’re making with China and the rest of the world now exporting deflation with the PPI today, which came in cool. This is another friendly inflationary report. Then disinflation clearly in place. The next thing is the Fed should be very careful about, if they don’t cut quickly, deflation could start to scare the markets again. That’s just, again, the fifth major policy mistake that Jay Powell’s made since he got the job. They’re light on everything, but just remember this, the fed never leads anyway. They always follow the market leads.

That’s what’s happening now. The ten year yields down to a 3.85%. And, you know, last October it was 5%. So what’s, what hasn’t changed? What hasn’t changed is the fed’s funds rate, which is still an effective 5.33%. So we’re. I mean, we’re. They’re so far offside, you know, more than a percent and a half offside right now. Way too restrictive.

And they should. They should really be watching the data even more carefully and they should start cutting. And I think it’d be, you know, as Tyler said, if they cut too quick, then that sends the wrong signal. That sends, oh, God, we missed it. Here comes a recession. That’s what. That’s what they’re worried about. I’m not worried about that.

[00:21:22]:
If they make the case that we’re not cutting because we’re worried about a recession, we’re cutting because we’ve been way too restrictive and we want to make sure we killed inflation, guess what? We did. Now we have pure disinflation, deflation, and now it’s just time to right the ship. We’ve got to. It’s. The economy’s fine, but we’ve got to right the ship. We’ve been too restricted for too long. The fed funds rate today, frankly, should be four and a quarter. That’s where the Fed.

Not 5.3. It should be four and a quarter. And so I think you’re going to see, I think they’re going to cover each by half a point in September. I think the odds are 50 50 on that right now, quarter point versus half point. But either way, it’s just a great setup for equities. Again, that’s one of our big, big drivers here. But it’s, again, a great environment for gold, silver and the miners. When the move takes place, it will be parabolic.

And again, they’re already outperforming. So that’s good to see. So, again, we’ve been pounding the table, as you know, on the semis. We’ve been adding positions there along with the Nasdaq 100. We’ve got three catalysts and this has really been our theme for the week. This is what we said was going to happen. Front running again, let’s go back to last Monday. I think it’s instructive because again, I’ve done this a long time, almost 40 years.

The best buys of my career have always come on a sharply lower open on a Monday following a weak Friday. What did we get? That’s exactly what we just got, right. 1000 point decline in Dow Jones last week, worse than Nasdaq, worse than the semis. But that was the buying opportunity. That was it. Those are the lows. And from that point we’ve said, okay, that’s another buy the dip opportunity. That’s what this will prove to be.

[00:23:13]:
Add to positions or put new ones on. We’ve done both. But, and we started pointing right away to the catalyst that will be front run. And as I said often this over the last year to two years, front running is taking place at a speed that I’ve never seen before. And this is really important. You’ve got to know what events are coming up over the next two to four weeks, in some cases longer. But over the next month, here’s what we know is happening, and this is why the markets are moving higher. They’re front running.

What’s about to happen. J Pal, first of all, has Jackson Hole pressers August 24. That’s ten days away. Okay, so the markets know what we’re about to. The CPI data tomorrow, again, should be friendly, just like the PPI was today, we’ll be surprised. Matter of fact, I almost guarantee you that it’s going to be. How do I know that? Because the way the market did today, because of what the market did today, this administration leaks worse financial data, economic data, worse than any administration of my career, worse than any administration ever. What they do is criminal.

If anybody else is doing it in a normal time, of course we’re not in normal times. We’re the Wild west now. You know, it’s predator and prey. This is, this is, this is, this is Gunslinger time. That’s just where we are. You know, we’re at that stage of the Roman Empire, wherever that was. If you know that, you use it to your advantage. But you know, it’s, it is a more dangerous time, but it’s also time you be more aggressive because they’re just not going to prosecute things that they used to prosecute.

[00:24:40]:
That’s just not happening. Well, we know that. Let’s just, just know that. And you can use that to your advantage in situations like this, because they’re leaking, they’re not going to be prosecuted. So guess what? They’re going to keep doing it. That means we have a tell. That’s how we use it. We have a tell.

And today we saw the tail. I can almost guarantee you. I’ve been on this limb a few times. If, you know, you’ve listened to the podcast much, I’ve said today the market was either up or down big. Guess what? The data tomorrow is going to be weaker, strong based on today. And so, yeah, that’s what’s going to happen. We’re going to have very good CPI data tomorrow. I’d be shocked to see anything other than at least meeting the estimates for CPI.

But again, the Dow today, let’s cover the markets. I’ll come back to our catalyst. Dow Jones today up just over 1%, up 408 points. Our loser on the day was the Dow Jones up 1%. We’ll take that. SB 500 up 1.7% today. Russ, 2000 up 1.6% today. Our leader, textbook.

Right back to textbook bill, folks. Nasdaq up a big 407 points, up 2.43%. And that’s, again, that’s exactly textbook. What you want to see. Here we go. Let’s get the semis, because that’s, that’s really shows you textbook. I mean, this could be, this could not be more textbook. Smi, smh.

[00:26:01]:
The semi ETF up more than up 4.1%. Nasdaq up 2.4%. Almost two to one. There’s your tell. Semis lead the attack. Tech leads the broad market. And when you get back into this kind of setup with the chart that we see now where we’re miles and miles away from being overbought, right, coming, bouncing off the 200 that, you kidding me? But the semis, Nasdaq 100, Rust 2000 in this shakeout we just went through all hit the 200 day moving average or sliced through a little bit and bounced back going as they hit extreme oversold levels on our VRA momentum oscillators. This is, there is no stronger buy recommendation in a bull market from the VR investing system than what we just saw.

And that’s, that’s what, that’s what we said to you at the time. It is scary, though, even for me. When you see something, you’re like, God, this could get worse, this could get ugly, couldn’t it? But you just have to suck it up and you have to buy. If it weren’t you could always put stops in, so there’s your protection. But no, we felt pretty confident about this call. And again, today’s textbook. We had great internals as well. And again, the other thing, really strong smart money hour.

And that’s what tells me the CPI data tomorrow, we closed at the highs of the day across the board. This is as bullish a day as you can get, frankly. Okay, so here are the catalysts over the next month. Jackson Hole presser, Jay Powell Presser, Jackson Hole, Wyoming on August 24, he’ll be full on dovish, telegraphing the upcoming rate cutting cycle, which, of course, is the return of easy money policies, which ultimately means we’ll have more QE. I don’t know. We’re in the roaring 2020s innovation revolution. I just don’t know how long it’ll take. We’ll have more qe in the future.

[00:27:54]:
There’s zero doubt about that. But we’ve had a reset. We’ve had a reset, and now we’re entering this period of extraordinarily strong economic growth based on the innovation revolution. I don’t think they’re going to need to have QE for some time. Now. That’s really where I’ve come around on this. But at the same time, rates still will continue even though the economy is going to remain strong. 5% GDP growth here.

We’re going through a very, we’re entering a very special time here, even more so if Trump’s elected, although I don’t think it really matters, but as far as the market’s concerned. But if Trump’s reelected, look out. My God. Innovation revolution on steroids. This is going to be, if you listen to the spaces last night with Elon Musk and Trump, you heard it right there. I mean, these guys are clicking. They’re on the same, they’re on the same, you know, multi billionaire wavelength. Okay? And they, they’re already finishing sentences.

Musk is going to work in his administration and kind of a cost cutting innovation kind of a capacity. And yeah, these guys are their best buds now, pretty much. Right. And that’s a very good thing, I think. So if Trump wins and look out, this thing is going to go crazy. Okay? But either way, I don’t think it’s going to matter. I think the markets will keep going higher. What’s happening with the economy? Again, innovation revolution disruption taking place, that’s going to continue to force rates lower because innovation and disruption is disinflationary, slash, deflationary.

[00:29:25]:
It’s going to bring prices down of everything. That’s what innovation does, so. But I don’t think we’re going to have true easy money policies returning for some time, but race will still plummet. So that’s that. We get the best of both worlds here, don’t we? The second catalyst, of course, is Nvidia earnings on August, 2814 days from now. Again, they’re the market leader. They launched the entire AI craze. It was Nvidia.

And, yeah, they’re still the leader. Great buy on this pullback. We don’t own it outright. We own the leveraged ETF soccer, which, of course, has about a 20% exposure to Nvidia. So, yeah, we own Nvidia, but we do it through an ETF. We just like the diversification. And you get actually either equal or better performance than you get with Nvidia. So I like that.

To me, that’s a win win right there. We’re really happy with that decision we made. But, yeah, we do own Nvidia, just again through an ETF. But Nvidia, without question, is the market leader. And the stock, of course, got slammed again. We had a 28% bear market in the semis. Three weeks, folks. Three weeks, 28%.

And so what a screaming buyer. We actually bought a little early on socks, where we added another position we’ve been longing now for a couple years. We added a trading position, bought a little early, but it won’t matter at the end, when socks was hitting, you know, 80, $90 to $100 a share, it’s 35 now. It will not matter what we paid for it. But, you know, you never like to pay too much or something, right? I just. I didn’t think we were going to slice through the 200. I didn’t think we’re going to have a 28% correction bear market. I thought it’d be more like 20%.

[00:31:06]:
So we just missed it really by day. It was that sell off on Monday. We missed it by. If Japan had melted down, we would have had a really good day on that month last Monday. So there you go. But again, the market’s going to keep front running. Indeed, earnings going to be a great number, I can almost assure you of that. And then the third big catalyst, of course, is next month’s Fed meeting, which is September 17 and 18th.

The decision on September 18 to cut rates. The only thing we don’t know is it will be a quarter point or a half point, but they are going to cut. So the front running is what’s powerful again. It’s happening faster than I’ve ever seen in my career. And combined with really good second quarter earnings, you’re looking at better than 10% earnings growth. Operating margins also hit an all time high. People aren’t talking about this. I think I’ll write that up tomorrow.

Operating margins at an all time high. Corporate America is cooking with gas. And remember, their debt to market cap is at a 50 year low. They just don’t need the money. They don’t need the debt. That’s so much cash flow. They don’t need it. People don’t understand the leverage that’s been built up in corporate America.

That’s why stock prices are going to continue to go higher. This is as bullish a setup as I’ve seen in my career. This is going to be stronger and better than 1995 to 2000 unless something like world War three or some other disaster happens. That’s always why you diversify. Who knows? Just don’t have those things happen. I can tell you that my confidence level is better than 90%. That this will not only be a more powerful market in 95 to 2000, it will be much longer lasting decade two. This is a special time.

[00:32:52]:
That’s why we keep saying stay locked in. This is when you build generational wealth. Let’s do this together and, you know, buy the dips, right. That’s going to be the theme for a very long time because of getting the innovation taking place. Very exciting time to be alive. And with this sigh up of negativity in place for those that can see through that smokescreen as a contrarian, it’s a little easier. Then you really start to pick up a feel for the markets. And you understand when you have these big shakeouts, oh, yeah, they’re a buy.

Yeah, they’re going to be a buy for a long time. And so that’s really kind of, that’s where we’ve come down on this. It makes it. It makes our case a lot better. But we wrote it all in the big bribe. You know, we wrote this two years ago. So that’s our playbook. You know, we’re just going off our playbook.

So far so good. All five mega trends we identified are accelerating. And so this is going to be, we think, a really, really good bull market. And we got some great. By the way, the fear greed toddlers told me the fear and greed index is a 25. Can you believe this? It’s still extreme fear. I don’t really follow this day to day. I knew that, you know, we were at like a 22, 23, we got to a 17 last week on the Japan craziness.

And I just thought, by now we’re back to a 35 or 40. We’re still at 25. That just tells you, you know, people, people are out of this market. This is a key point to understand where you are in the, in the cycle, in the bull market cycle. And we see this evidence crystal clear. The first money to leave the markets, the hot money that typically just bought at the top, they were like, they were buying July 17, and that was the day the market peaked. And that hot money probably just came in like a week before, because that’s what the public, the herd does this, right? They buy high and sell low. And so when you have a big shakeout, they’re also the first to sell.

[00:34:50]:
And so, unfortunately, it’s a lesson that we all have to learn. You’re not supposed to buy high and sell low. It does work the other way around, but we see it and how quickly these sell offs happen and these sentiment indicators flip to extreme fear so quickly. That is not the sign of an evolved bull market. This is a sign, textbook sign of an early bull market. Very important distinction there. If you understand that distinction. Again, it’s another tool to use that gives you confidence to buy the dip.

Look, when this changes, we’ll tell you when it does, here’s what will happen. The fear greed index and these other sentiment gauges will have shakeouts, and they won’t fall. They’ll be greed or extreme greed. We’ll have big down days or down weeks, and they’ll barely budge. They’ll just stay at greed because then I, people will just start to expect buy the debt. They’ll think that just, that just, that’s the way this works. This is that bull market. But we are, frankly, we’re years away from that.

We have, we have a window here of, I think, two, three, four years to make a lot of money before the public starts to really understand what’s happening here. That’s how pervasive and powerful this psyop of negativity is. Again, it’s the indoctrination and the propaganda has worked, has it not? But again, if you know it, use it to your advantage. This is, this is just a great setup. And finally, the analytics toddler talked this yesterday. Ryan Dietrich does great work. This is, this is really remarkable. I think after the carry trade meltdown, of course, the Dow Jones fell over 1000 points.

[00:36:31]:
The VIX, the volatility index went from 23 to 65. Okay. Peak fear. Here’s what history tells us about these kind of big moves going back to 1990. This is how happened 92 times going back to 1990 when the VIX has spiked past 50. So, you know, from whatever to past 50, VIX spike high, right. The SBF hundred has then been higher one year later. 98.9% of the time, getting 91 of 92 times.

The market’s been positive one year later with an average gain of more than 30%. This is. This is definitely actionable analytics right here. So we’re going to keep referring back to this one. Good job, Brian. Thank you. For what? A good guy. I don’t know him personally.

I kind of wish I did. This guy. His work benefits all of us and not a lot of people like that. He doesn’t seem to have much of an ego. And who couldn’t use more people like Ryan Dietrich in your life? Thank you, Ryan. Great work. I will find a way to repay the favor one of these days. You have my word on that.

All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. Again, good dial around today. The internals today. Up volume today for NYSE was just under 80%. Good day there. Nasdaq was right at 73%. Advanced decline four to one for Nyse. Nasdaq three to one on advanced decline.

[00:37:57]:
Again, solid, solid day here. We did have more stocks at a 52 week low than a high, but it was like 163 to 178, so really inconsequential. It’s always a lag effect with. With that reporting. Anyway, good internals and our sector watch confirmed here as well. Ten of eleven sectors finished high in the day, led to the upside by technology. 3%. What you want to see.

Consumer discretionary, up 2.4%. I think Tyler said they hit a new 50 week high. All time high today. Good strength all around. The only loser today was energy. That’s because oil was down today. And our commodity watch today. There we go.

Gold, 2505. So we are what, $17 an ounce below, depending on which reporting service you use, futures or cash, what have you. But the one we use is 2505 and it’s up a buck on the day. And again, that puts us right at $17 this year. Announced below. All time high. So for today was flat on the day. 27.

90. Copper today, also flat at $4.06 a pound. Crude oil down. There’s the culprit. Down $1.41 a barrel. That’s 1.7%. 7865. The rumors have been that Iran was going to attack Israel.

There was some war premium in crude oil, and I guess the word broke that they’re maybe going to back away from that. We’ve sent, like, 37 aircraft carriers down there, so maybe. Maybe that’s the deterrent that worked to protect Israel. Another story for another day. I’m not sure which country lease which, tell you the truth. Actually, I drew a pretty good idea. Won’t get in that today, though. But I wish we had someone that protected us like we do Israel.

[00:39:47]:
How about that crude oil? 7865. Again, on lack of concern about Iran attacking Israel, I guess. And finally, the day bitcoin. Bitcoin had a pretty good reversal here. Up now 7% on a seven day period, but 3.5% in the last 24 hours. Last trade here, 60,928 again, my minimum target. I’m not sure what Tyler’s is. My minimum target.

We agree on most things. We don’t have the same targets. I don’t even know Tyler has a target for year end. I know he’s ultra bullish on bitcoin. 60,900, last price I’m looking for. 100,000 minimum by year end. Yeah, I know that’s coming up pretty close now. I’m not.

I’m not changing that. Because when it moves, it’s going to. It’s going to be parabolic. And then cycle high of 250,000. Next two to four years is my price target. So again, it’s another great asset to buy. The dip on. Another great inflationary asset to own.

Okay. May not be a perfect store value. Give it time. Right now look at the trend over the long run. Yeah. It’s been a phenomenal store of value. No one can debate that. All right, folks, that’s it for today.

Hope you had a good day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close. Bye.