Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA Investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your weekend was fantastic as well. We’ve got some exciting things to talk about, don’t we? What a comeback today following Friday’s flash crash. An absolute heist that took place in the crypto markets. We’ll spend a little time on that, too, because we’re talking.
We’re talking about rank criminality here, folks. That’s what’s going on. We’ve called this now for three years the wild west of free market capitalism. Yeah, there you go. There’s your exact example. Announced China tariffs late on a Friday when there’s no liquidity. Crash the markets into the close, and then crypto just completely falls apart because there’s no one there to buy. But more importantly, somebody or some bodies had their short positions ready to go and sizable ones, and they just peppered the stock, just peppered crypto, bitcoin, all crypt0.
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Some of these cryptos just disappeared. Like the more illiquid ones, the true shit coins just went to zero, and there’s just no liquidity. This is. This is not the definition of a deep and healthy market. As much as we like bitcoin, as much as we are a fan of financial engineering, what’s happening in the. In the land of cryptocurrency. And by the way, I’ll just give you a little teaser. We are working for our VRA members here.
We’re going some pretty special here. We think we’ve got a new cryptocurrency we’re going to recommend. We have not done this. We’ve been bitcoin and ether. Ether was early on, but primarily we’ve been bitcoin. We’ve done extremely well there. Gains of 2,280%. This is our first recommendation of Bitcoin in 2017 at 2000.
And we’ve got something new we’re working on. So it’s a little premature. I don’t think that. Premature. I’m very excited about this. Haven’t seen anything quite like this. It’s very, very different. Anyway, yeah, there.
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There has to be an investigation by the CFTC into what happened on Friday. There has to be, because it’s a. It’s a big chink in the armor. Again, this is. This is ranked criminality that we just watched. This is a. This is a. Like a gangster heist that we just watched take place on Friday.
And over the weekend, bitcoin fell all the way to 103. And I think that was low 103,000. Now it’s right back to 115, of course, and look, the resiliency is good. It’s good that it bounced back. But do you have an interest in investing in a market that. Where you want to put serious money, right? Like gold money. Okay. Or Tesla money, You know, pick your favorite stock.
Do you have an interest in investing a lot of money in a cryptocurrency, Bitcoin or otherwise, where you can see that kind of volatility and that shorter period of time? Because I tell you, that’s the kind of question a lot of people are asking. They thought, you know, bitcoins become much more stable, it had become less volatile. That’s all good. That’s what a developed market begins to do. And then this kind of a garbage happens, and it is absolute garbage. But again, this is the wild west of free market capitalism. That’s not going to change. And we’re going to continue to see events like this.
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Now, I doubt there could be any prosecution. I’d be surprised if there’s any serious investigation, even from one point of view. Hey, you know what? We’re all big boys and girls, and it’s up to us to do our research and due diligence and make sure we’re properly diversified in our investments so we don’t get taken to the cleaners like 1.8 million traders did, apparently on Friday and over the weekend, they’re just completely washed out. Wiped out. You know, I know there’s no crying in baseball, but at the same time, if bitcoin wants to be considered to be in the League of Gold, and it’s not, it’s not close, but if bitcoin wants to be considered in the League of Gold and Silver, by the way, then there has to be some regulation to prevent garbage like this happening. And I doubt there’s anyone listening that disagrees with me on this. But anytime you start throwing word, you know, throwing the word regulation with cryptocurrencies, there are a lot of people that just go, no, no, you know, because they’re the ones that are doing this. Okay? They’re the ones that are doing this.
And a lot of scumbags, a lot of scumbags in that group, a lot of shit coins that I. Again, I. Our advice has always been, you know, unless you really know this space, and I know a lot of you do, unless you know this space, stick with what you know, stick with the granddaddy of them all stick with bitcoin or if you know, I know a lot of people now are getting excited about ether. I’m not one of those because there’s no supply cap. For me I want the supply cap of Bitcoin at 21 million coins is what does it for me that’s a of course with along with the marvel that it is of financial engineering. But for me it’s the supply cap because I just like you know what, I’m going to keep buying this and I think I have a pretty good idea in about 20 years where it’s going to be and I think it’s going to be a real big number and it’s because of this supply cap because once that, once again all these every, every four years of having takes place because more and more and more difficult and expensive to mine Bitcoin. I like the way that math works but that’s me again. I just, I.
We always encourage everyone just do your research due diligence, make sure you’re properly diversified so you’re not one of these 1.8 million traders that wind up having their, you know, because it’s margin. If you’re using anywhere from 10 to 100 times leverage, I think you already know how it’s going to end. I mean don’t you have a pretty good idea how it’s going to end? Yeah, I think you have to know how it’s going to end. Unless you just find some way to put a stop in make sure you get out. Unless you’re really on top of your game. Traders that use 10 to and that’s what they’re doing, using 10 to 100 time leverage to trade Bitcoin are asking for. You’re asking to be you to be wiped out. And that’s, that’s, that’s typically what’s going to happen.
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I give the same advice to people that come to me and say hey, I really, I really want to become a more aggressive trader. And you know, I see the work you guys do. I want to try to apply the same kind of moving averages and kind of, you know, VRA system methodology to be more of a day trader. I’ve got the time. I’m retired now what have you. And I wanted, I’m like my first advice is to forget you what you just said because I know very few people in my career, very few people 10, maybe my whole career that have actually made money day trading because it’s just, you know, it’s great until it’s not. It’s great until all of a sudden it’s horrible and life’s too short for that, especially when you reach a certain age, you know, you don’t want to have to start over again. So I think the key here is this, is that bull market.
You know, you don’t need to be hyper aggressive. You know, I think this, this bull market, I don’t think I actually, I believe I know this bull market is going to be unbelievably rewarding for a long time and we don’t have to take those outside risk to try to play catch up, right? Or to reach a goal that we have of turning, you know, 100,000 into 10 million or something. I’m going to do it in five, 10 years, right? You know, if that, if those, if those are your, if those are your goals and ob, more power to you, I’m rooting for you. But, but that’s very, very hard to do, which is why I know so many day traders that have wound up succeeding at that objective. Now, again, a true day trader, we’re talking about somebody trading for quarters, right? Somebody trading very, very tight, very tight. Great discipline. That’s a different thing from the average person just saying, hey, I’m gonna go, I’m gonna go, I’m gonna day trade, right? So just to be clear, but the market came roaring back today after the flash crash on Friday. You know, we put out a piece on Thursday where we said, you know, this, be ready, you know, watch your leverage.
Because this is the setup where something, we’re going to have these, we’re going to have these flash crashes, we’re going to have again, wild west free market capitalism. Look who’s president at any time. We know what he can say. It did surprise me, by the way. I got to tell you, it did surprise me that when Trump said, okay, boom, we’re going to put 100% plus on top of the other tariffs on China and on top of that, we’re going to export controls. It did surprise me that the market reacted the way that it did. I thought we were past that. I thought we got to the point where people are like, you know, that’s just Trump being Trump, but it’s not real.
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You know, if you follow these prediction markets like Kalshi and Poly Market, right? They, they have, by the way, this is live betting. This is, you know, and this is extremely accurate stuff. If you don’t follow it, you should. We’re doing some work on this area as well, because I think it’s really going to be a Big part of our future as as opposed to some of the other options out there. You can bet on anything. You can, you can buy, I should say you can buy and sell anything anytime you want to. There’s like a hundred topics, maybe that’s too few. There’s a lot of topics you can, you know, place a directional wager on.
And, you know, they had the odds of Trump, I think almost immediately they put the odds of Trump actually enacting these tariffs. I think I saw 20%, and I think that’s about right. But the market certainly didn’t act like that, did it, on Friday. Certainly crypto market. But again, what happened to the crypto market? That was a, that was a gangster heist. That was a complete criminality. There is no question about it. And, you know, we’ll see again if anything comes of it.
But by and large, look, we’re still in a massive bull market. We’re still very much in the early innings. We needed a shakeout. We’re extreme overbought levels. It’s October. This is when you tend to have that volatility. And we just came roaring back today. I’ll talk about that more in a moment.
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I also want to say congratulations to President Trump. It looks like we may have peace. The Middle East, I mean, this, it, if it is, it’s a, it’s miraculous because look how long we’ve gone with just, this is, this is normal. This is, if you live in the Middle east, this is your normal right. And there’s another side to that coin. And that side is the, the reason the markets are going up so much in that part of the world. If you look at a map where these two big major rebuilding projects are going to take place, I’m talking about Ukraine and Gaza and actually broader Middle East. They’ve got some very, Trump’s got some very big projects in mind.
If you’ve been paying attention to the hints he’s getting, he’s putting out and the team he’s put together. Middle East, I mean, these people literally have more money than God, okay? I mean, we’re talking oil money here. So we’re talking about trillions, trillions of dollars that will be, that will go to rebuilding projects when the Ukraine, Russia war ends, then I do think it’s going to happen. And Gaza. And so when you look at the US Stock market, I don’t even think we finished in the top 25. We’re not in the top 25 of returns for global markets so far this year through 2025 that was through last week. Not even the top 25. And we, you know, we had a pretty good comeback from April, but you know, these, look at a map.
You know, to me, I haven’t measured it, but to me the distance between Ukraine and Gaza looks almost like it’s from Houston to Dallas. I mean, they’re right across the, the sea from each other. And so that area is going to be infused with trillions of dollars in rebuilding projects with funding coming from all over the world. Because again, as we’ve covered ad nauseam, we have an ocean of liquidity, not just in the US but around the world. There’s never been a time like this. So little debt, so much money and it’s all got to go somewhere. Why do you look at commodity complex. Look, look at, look at again, any inflationary asset, we’ve been pounding the table.
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They’re all rising, they will all continue to rise. And yeah, we may have a level of inflation because of the demand for these commodities and for these various products, but it’s going to be very manageable. And more than anything, it’ll be overwritten by the innovation revolution. That, that innovation is going to keep pressure on prices of pretty much everything. Right? So, but again, you know, it’s just, it’s just the amount of money going everywhere and equities, housing, gold, silver, bitcoin, maybe our new crypto project we’re going to tell you about later this week, I believe have a, have a world of potential and they have and they will continue to. You know, it’s funny, over the weekend what I saw were a lot of these perma bears. You know, I’m on social media like a lot of you are, of course. And you know, especially after Friday, you know, here came all the Robert Kiyosaki’s of the world.
You know, I told you the next crash was coming. I told you in my third book in 27 years ago, the next crash was coming or whatever. This guy’s predicted 100 of the last two bear markets, right? And like so many of these charlatans and grifters that just live to sell books and you know, have their, I don’t know, silver and gold commercials and whatever else they do. They’re of course their events where they command a lot of money to speak because they, he does have a big name. But you know, they’re just not good at what they do. They’re not good at helping actually people make money. Now the recommendation of gold and silver have done quite well. Don’t get Me wrong.
But it’s all the other areas, the things they push people in, where they’ve gotten destroyed in. But certainly, you know, these, these warnings over and over again, here comes the next crash. That’s really what I’m talking about over the weekend. And it’s just, it’s based in nothing. It’s based in nothingness. And I just know so many people that are impacted by this. And again, we covered this a lot. I get it folks.
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The 2008 financial crisis and the housing crash, it wasn’t that long ago. Still very fresh in people’s memories and minds. I understand that, I get that. But you know, we got to look past that because this time ain’t that time. This could not be more different than that time. And to all those, the crash callers and the bubble top callers and saying we’ve got extreme leverage and the whole thing’s going to implode like 2008. I saw that a lot this weekend. Again, for our newer folks here.
No, that is not what’s happening and it’s not what’s going to happen. We have MTO money supply. That’s all just cash. Cash equivalents is an all time high. 22 trillion. All right. That’s the opposite of too much leverage. That’s not enough leverage.
We also have 7.7 trillion in money market accounts, also an all time high. People are still scared and they’re still parking money in money market accounts and in CDs and in bonds. That’s changing. Animal spirits are coming back. But that’s a process. And again the people saying, oh the housing market, we’re just, we’re just one event away from another 2008. No, we’re not. You’re a liar.
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You don’t know what you’re talking about. Shut up. 40% of homeowners have no mortgage. Obviously it’s an all time high pay off their homes. Average home equity in the country is 70 now, more than 70%. Also an all time high. Once again, this is the opposite of a bubble. This is the opposite of extreme leverage.
There’s 34 trillion sitting in home equity. That money is going to continue to cut, especially when rates fall. That money is going to come into the economy, into stocks, into more housing. This is all going to feed this melt up cycle that we’re going to go through in all these inflationary assets. It’s already started, but we’re so early. And as far as American companies, people like to talk, oh, do you see the level of bankruptcy level bankruptcies In American companies hit like if, I don’t know, I don’t even know where they’re getting that from. It’s the most made up thing I’ve ever heard. US companies we’re talking about now, in this case we’re Talking about the SP 500 has a debt to market cap at 50 year lows.
50 year lows. US balance sheets have literally never been stronger in history. Again, the opposite of extreme leverage or a bubble. So you know, it’s easy to get caught up in what happens in crypto and go, okay, that must be indicative of something, you know, broader happening throughout society, throughout the economy. No, no it’s not. It’s just criminality in that space because it’s still a new asset class. And you know, you got, you got bad people doing bad things. But don’t, don’t, don’t think that’s, don’t, don’t think that could, is indicative of an economy that’s in trouble because it’s not.
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Again, we’re looking for Q3 earnings. Was kicked out tomorrow by the way. Q3 earnings start tomorrow. Really, you know, kick off with the big banks. Tomorrow we get JP Morgan and Citi and then on Wednesday I think it’s bank of America. And then we go on from there. You know, we’re, we’re, we, we’ve been, I think it’s right if more, not more right than anybody else on earning earnings this year. And we don’t track everybody but you know, we’re certainly in that top group and we’re looking for 13 to 15% earnings growth for the third quarter.
Frankly, I’d be surprised, I’ll be very surprised if it’s below 13. I think we’re about to enter a cycle now as we have the last three quarters. We’re going to have earnings growth well above 10%, 15% again. This is how we get to 5% GDP growth and then beyond. And again, this is the cycle we’re in. You if you’ve been with us at all, you know, that’s been our story for three years and that continues to be, to be our view today on Tesla. This is interesting. Tesla got a buy recommendation today.
If you saw the stock today, good day by the way, for everything really, wasn’t it? The markets closed pretty much at the highs of the day. Very close to it. Good, strong smart money hour. We really didn’t get a big dip today. I kind of thought we’d get a sharp open. I really, we were hoping for a dip. You know, honestly we Were hoping that people would overreact the markets that open up big and then the shorts would have the power to come in and drive this down and scare people. Right.
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We really wanted to go from a sharply higher open down to maybe Dow Jones minus 3, 400. And then we were ready to. We already had our targets picked up for parabolic options and for what we’d add to in the, in the VRA portfolio and we just didn’t get it. And that’s because the shorts don’t have any power. The longs have all the power. Buy the dip. I mean it was lasted Friday. I mean, there you go, right? But again, we had a very strong close today.
Led by Russ 2000 today finished up 2.8%. Good to see small caps bouncing back because they got hit pretty hard on Friday. Nasdaq today up 2.2%. Semis today up 4.3%. Big deal with Broadcom and open AI as you may have seen. And again, these are going to continue today. One of our favorite stocks in your 10 bagger is smr, which is new Skill Power. Tyler actually found this, well, I think about a year ago we’re up like 140% in it and it was up 14% today.
And nuclear is so early. And I see a lot of people that are poo pooing this story like, oh, it’s come too far too fast. The market caps are too big. I’m like, no, man, you have no clue what’s coming with nuclear. All right, Just find your favorite nuclear store. You could probably, you know, pick any of a handful we like smr. OKLO is another good one. I know a lot of you like, but we like, we like SMR because the insider selling at OKLO is a little scary.
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And SMR is the only one small scale nuclear company to receive full Nuclear Regulatory Commission approvals. And they have, and they’ve got a number of projects. I think that about based on their orders, based on what they’ve ordered. And we know this from their quarterly reports, they’re going to announce a number of major projects very soon and they’ll move at lightning pace. I think that though I believe Instead of waiting eight to 10 years it takes to get these things built, I think we’re looking at four to five years. Again, this is Trump, you know, this is Trump wanting to move everything in lightning speed. Get rid of, get rid of all these regulations that aren’t required and they’re just not necessary anymore. I know that’s scary for some people to hear that about nuclear, but it’s a different ball game here.
And so I think that you’re going to see SMR announce a number of projects similar to what we’ve seen, you know, with data centers. I mean doesn’t it make sense that SMR would announce about 10 different deals all over the planet with a single company? Because obviously these data centers are everywhere, they need to be spread out, etc. So again there’s just so much opportunity in this market, so many great stories that make a lot of sense. But the Tesla guy, I’d never seen this guy’s name before, this analyst, I’d never heard of his firm or him, but he’s getting at least partial credit for the move higher. Tesla’s up today 5.2% to 435 at 21 bucks a share. And here’s what he said. The firm he writes for is Melius Research and his name is Rob Wertheimer. Again never heard of him but he got a lot of coverage today.
But I guess because of the move, although the stock would have been up big today anyway, he’s got a $520 price target which is, that’s lower than ours. So I don’t think that’s it. But I liked his quotes because it sounded like, it sounded like he’s been reading our work. He says we see Tesla Sierras as must own. Sound familiar? The disruptive force of AI will wreck multi trillion dollar industries starting with auto. Yes, he’s exactly right there. AI will disrupt industries in cars. A self driving robo taxi will replace a household second car.
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And Tesla is well capitalized, well positioned to capitalize on AI trends. Tesla and the Musk ecosystem can and will in a combination of tech and design, manufacturing do what no one else can replicate today. And I think he’s just right. This is interesting fact set still says that only 47% of analysts that follow Tesla have a buy on it. 47% that if that’s not the biggest buy signal you’ve ever heard, tell me what is for Tesla? So again, love the story here and I, I think, I think Elon’s got some surprises for people. You know our year end price target has been 500 but our technical target, again there’s a big long term triangle here, pattern in place that points to 598. I actually think that’s probably the more likely target by year end.598 again it’s435. Now would I be surprised if Tesla hit 7 $800 by year end? Absolutely not.
Absolutely not. Because the retail is all over this story. It’s institutional that doesn’t like it. And as we’ve seen time and again, retail is about to own institutional once more. And they certainly will with Tesla. Final note, before we get to the internals and let you go, you know, governance closed down, I thought, didn’t we, didn’t they tell us the market was going to go down? Isn’t that what they said? Oh my God, it’s going to be pandemonium. That. The other thing is, and this is, again, we’ve talked about this a little bit.
Both houses of Congress are out of session, they’re in recess. You really don’t find a more bullish environment than when Congress is out of session. So, you know, we’ll hope for a dip and see if we can’t get an opportunity at some positions. We certainly have to do that in parabolic options, don’t we? We do have a couple industry targets though, and we’ll share this with you tomorrow. But again, we’re well positioned. It’s not like we have to go add new positions. We are, we are stocked to the brim with the stocks and the holdings that we want to own. And that through the third quarter have us up 41%, you know, for the year.
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And I think there’s a, I think there’s an outside chance we finish up the year 60 plus percent, which would be a good year. And I think next year is going to blow that away. I think next year is going to be such a barn burner. People have no idea what’s coming. People have no idea how good next year is going to be. All right, in the internals today again, these are very good readings here. As you expect with a day like this. We had 4 to 1 advanced decline for NASDAQ.
Excuse me, NYSE. NASDAQ was positive 3 to 1 advanced decline. Up volume for NYSE was 83.7. That’s a good reading. NASDAQ 69, we had about 20 more stocks hit 50 week high than 52 week low. Sector watch today also very strong. 9 of 11 sectors finished higher. Almost nothing to the downside to the upside.
Technology up 2.5%. Consumer discretionary up 2.3%. Commodity watch today. I mean, wow. Gold 4130 right now is trading just off the highs of the day. Up $129 on the day. 3.24%. Know we’re the original gold bucks here.
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I think you know that pretty well by now, don’t you? Silver today up 7.4%. It’s in backwardation, meaning that spot prices are trading higher than futures prices. And that means there is a big problem in the silver market. Physicality, baby. Everybody wants to own it. And this is when you get massive short squeezes. Silver did nice trade. Now this is December.
So silver at $50.77, we’re looking at all time highs. Little golf clap for silver and gold while we’re at it. I mean what, what absolute champs. What the amount of wealth. And this is what you’re not going to hear. You won’t hear this talked about because folks, we’re talking about my generation and older. We’re talking about guys and girls in their 60s, 70s, 80s, 90s, even hundreds that have been stacking gold and silver for decades. And they’ve never told anyone.
They haven’t bragged about it, they haven’t tweeted about it, they haven’t put it on insta, they haven’t told their family. They just stack it and they’re just like, God, I, you know, I really love to tell someone because this is really cool. I’ve got millions of dollars now in gold and silver and that used to be like only 100 grand and. But you know what? This is, this is the way, this is, this is the way for long term gold and silver holders. We’re the original Hodler, very proud of that. And it doesn’t mean we don’t like bitcoin, but again, this gold is, Bitcoin is not gold and silver. It just never will be. It never will be folks, because you lose electricity, you lose your login information, you know, you lose, you’re wiped out.
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Literally. It’s gone. Not with gold, not as least as long as you know where it’s stored and you haven’t told a lot of people about it, right? But anyway, it’s just fantastic. We’re very happy for everyone listening that’s been stacking gold and silver for a long time and for the, for the gains that you now have because guess what, they’re just, they’re just getting started. We talked about this last week, talked about in Charles Payne show as well. For the first time I think in my career we’re seeing true and honest price discovery take place in gold and silver. The days of manipulation from JP Morgan and central banks, at least if it’s not gone, it’s been muted and now we’re seeing honest price discovery. As I said last week on Charles’s show, gold should have been $4,000 announced 10 years ago, should be 10,000 today.
That’s not just, you know, that’s just not me just trying to have a good sound bite. That’s how I feel. If you know me, that’s how I felt for a long time. And we know this. JP Morgan pled guilty, as did other banks. JP Morgan in 2020 pled guilty to a 920 million dollar criminal penalty with three different federal agencies for manipulating gold prices lower for many years, for decades, frankly. So again, all the planet, all the stars appear to be aligned here. And there simply is no reason that gold and silver shouldn’t continue higher.
That’s exactly what we expect is going to happen. Again, our long term price target on Gold is 15,000. And frankly, that may be too low. All right, what else today? Oh, other commodities. Copper up 4.8% again. We got to rebuild. We got these rebuilding projects around the world, don’t we? Copper is going to be using all that copper. Last trade, $5.12 a pound.
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Crude oil today bouncing back 1% to 59.56. And following the day, bitcoin after again Getting smacked down to 103. Last trade, 115,675. All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hope you had a great day, an even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.