In today's episode, Kip covers the major market trends that every investor needs to keep their eye on this week. We’ll cover the critical role of semiconductor stocks this week and the bullish momentum in Bitcoin that could lead to a parabolic move. We’re also discussing Tesla's promising news with regulatory support, the ongoing situation with Russia and Ukraine, and why gold and silver remain steadfast recommendations in our portfolio. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Kip Heriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Hope it was fantastic as well. Let’s get right to it. We got a lot to talk about.

I’m going to get through it pretty quickly. We have some major themes happening here. And this is really, I think when we, this is when as investors, we get paid. This is when it really makes sense to pay attention because major major trends development is taking place right now. I’m going to cover this a little bit with you today in the semis. Of course, that’s our leading sec, a leading sector. It leads up and down and something very big is about to happen. We want to make sure the semis do what we think they’re going to do because if they don’t, this market’s going lower.

And so the semis are the most important group this week. And I can tell you there is nervousness, there is some anxiety about this. That’s just normal. You know, it’s just normal because we are in a big bull market again. Second year, big bull, third year now big bul market back to eight years of 20% gains. That tends to be very, very bullish. And of course, now we have Trump in office and you know, we’re not quite, not quite to the inauguration yet. And look, he is going to shake things up.

[00:01:09]:
And so that’s, that can be a little rocky. But the bottom line is Trump is going to be. What’s the best adjective? I don’t know, Magnificent for corporate earnings and for U.S. economy, because that is what the case is. So anyway, we’re in the best three months of the year right now. November, December, January. We’re about to enter not only the best, really the best time of the year, period this end of November into December is an extraordinarily bullish time as well. Of course, as we all know, we’ve heard this many times over again.

There’s now $7 trillion setting your money markets, trying to find a home. Look, rates have been stubbornly high. So people are probably okay with that money sitting in the money market right now, but they’re not going to be as rates move lower and that is what rates will continue to do. That’s been our call now for some time and we continue to see that being the case. So, you know, we’ve looked last Tuesday as we alerted you at the time the market hit extreme overbought readings. That’s just a time. As we said at the Time, we’re not taking profits here. It’s a time to use discipline and it’s not a good time to put new money to work.

[00:02:25]:
It’s just that’s the worst time. And since then our index had fallen 2 to 3%, some falling worse than others. But bottom line is we’re just in a very, very, we’re in a very bullish timeframe. So we’ll talk about the semis more in just a moment because again, this is the week, this is the make or break week for the semis right here. Which means that’s the same thing for the market. Bitcoin. Very, very bullish. Time to own bitcoin as well.

We’ve been of course pounding the table on bitcoin, as you know. And why would we stop now? It’s only going to go higher again. Our year end target from the beginning of 2024 has been 100,000. I expect we’re going to blow through 100,000 this week. This is the kind of momentum that’s in place right now for bitcoin. Serious money coming in and these pauses I think will be very short lived. So I do look for a strong move through a hundred thousand. And remember this is also a seasonally a very, very good time to own bitcoin.

[00:03:22]:
And the last three havings in bit in December. Of the last three havings, which was 20, 20, 2016, of course now 2024, the last three, excuse me, last two, 23, excuse me, the average gain has been in the month of December alone for bitcoin. So you can do this quick math there and see that we’re gonna, if that, if, if that continues to be the case, yeah, we’re blowing through a hundred thousand, most likely going to 120, 130,000 by year and minimum. And who knows, this thing is about to take on a life of its own. And it’s just going to be a, it’s going to be a moonshot. The parabolic is going to be a parabolic moonshot for bitcoin. But seasonality, that’s the point here, is very good. And by the way, you know, there was a time where bitcoin led equities and we talked about this, it happened for about two and a half years and it was just, it was, it was, it was a golden use of ability to use market timing by following bitcoin.

[00:04:28]:
That’s not the case now. Bitcoin is lagging, it’s not leading. But that’s also can be used to your advantage even though it’s not leading if it’s lagging. If it’s lagging, you’re picking up speed. That tells you we’re not reversing yet. And that has been the case. So, you know, just going to point that out. I think that the bitcoin and the markets are synced up together right now and they will continue to move higher.

Also Tesla, you know, you may have seen the news overnight. Tesla finished up today nicely. Tesla today up right at 5.9%, up at 19 bucks a share as I speak, at $340 a share. Word has leaked out that the Trump administration is going to be very friendly to Tesla and his good friend now Elon Musk. And the Trump administration plans to ease regulations for autonomous vehicles in the US that benefits one company more than all others combined and that’s Tesla. So, yeah, stock is looking very good. Of course, last week it hit extreme. We’re bought, we polished our buying.

[00:05:37]:
That didn’t last long, it was two days and then we started buying, you know, Friday. And again, very, very nice gains here. So, you know, there is some trepidation about what’s happening also with, with Russia. I’m sure you’ve seen this news as well. Russia now has been given approval by the United States to track to attack Russia. Ukraine has been given approval to attack Russia deep inside of Russia using advanced U.S. missiles. And that’s, that’s not what you want to see if you, if you think this war is coming to an end or the money laundering operation is coming to an end with Trump taking office.

So, you know, this is really a goal today was that big. Of course, that’s one of the reasons the goal was that big today. Although the charts look fantastic. Might as well talk about it now. You know, we focused on Friday on, on gold and the miners, specifically on the miners. GDX, the gold miner ETF traded down exactly to its 200 day moving average while also hitting our most oversold designation, extreme oversold on steroids. It’s this combination and doesn’t happen a lot, but it’s this combination of hitting the two being in a primary and a bullish trend, that’s your primary trend and then having a correction, a pause correction down to the 200 day moving average while at the same time seeing our four momentum oscillators and the VR investing system all hit oversold, extreme oversold levels. That’s extreme oversold on steroids.

[00:07:07]:
It’s at the 200 day moving average in a bullish uptrend. These are very rare These are rare events. They happen. Right? But I say rare. We might get these per sector, maybe per sector a couple of times a year. This happens just like this. And so this is an extraordinarily bullish time, we believe, to own the miners. Of course, they lead.

And so we want them to lead. They led today. Let’s take a look here at GDX. GDX today finished up 4.3% gold, today finishing up just under 2%. Of course, gold again was up partially on the risk that are now ever present again with Russia and Ukraine. But at the same time, you know, look, we’ve been bullish on gold for a very long time. I shared this this morning, in case you haven’t heard this. I’ll share it again.

You know, I first recommended gold in 2003, silver as well, along with the miners, first time. And we’ve never taken it. We’ve taken our buy recommendation off the miners, but we’ve not once taken our buy recommendation off of gold. And the reason is we use it, we save in gold instead of fiat currency. And, you know, over the years, I’ve caught some flack from financial planner types for that, saying that that’s, that’s far too risky. Kev, what do you, what do you. Well, how could you tell someone did they got, you know, they keep 20% of their portfolio in cash? How could you tell someone to keep that in gold? Well, here. Here’s how, here’s how I could tell someone to do that from night from 2003, when I recommended gold, silver and the miners for the first time.

[00:08:42]:
It was my second letter of the VRA in 2003. From that point in time, if you’d invested $100,000 in a US money market account, compounding at 3% after inflation, that 100,000 today, 21 years later, is worth $64,000. That’s right. You lost $36,000 in the trade. However, if you invest that $100,000 instead in gold, and of course, we love physical gold, maybe gold coins. Take your pick, though. You know, it’s. You’re just don’t know.

You know, just. You won’t go for the intrinsic value, for the meltdown value, maybe gold eagles would serve you well. But from that same time frame in 2003, 21 years ago, $100,000 vested in gold today would be worth 700 more than $700,000. So 700,000 versus 64,000. That is why we save and gold and silver and now Bitcoin too. So we have, we have another option with Bitcoin being another good store value. And it absolutely is absolutely also a hedge against inflation. Final point on gold.

[00:09:53]:
If anyone thinks for a second, even though we’re going to downsize the government, right. We’re going to get rid of a lot of ridiculous cost. Look, we have so many issues with debt. A money printing machine in the United States is going to have to continue. And so, and that’s the case for the world too. Matter of fact the world’s got a lot of work to do for the catch up with where we’re going to be with Vivek and with, with, with Musk, you know, bringing down our expenditures. Right. And getting rid of ridiculous suspending we’re doing here.

But the rest of the world doesn’t really have that kind of a initiative in place. So yeah, globally debt totals are going to continue to rise. Fiat currency money printing will continue to soar and that is why gold continues to be one of the best investments you can make. Silver as well. We focus primarily on gold here. We’re about 80, 20, 70, 30 gold to silver. But we do own and recommend both. Also back to the semis here.

[00:10:57]:
Okay, I mentioned a minute ago the semis, they’re 15% below the July 11th all time high. Did you know that SMH, the semi ETF is 15% below its all time high? Just as our broad markets reading all time after all time high. That’s interesting because that really shouldn’t be happening. That is a testament to the strength of this market and the broadening of this market that the semis, your most important leadership group, they can go down 15 or be still. They went down 28 from, from the July highs. We had a brutal three week bear market of 28. I think a lot of us remember that. But we’re still 15 below those July 11th all time highs.

And for the broad market to be able to do what it’s done, that tells you how strong. That alone tells you how strong this bull market is. However, here’s the however because this has been in place since 2008 when the US started quantitative easing in style if you will. The semis have led in every bull market and every bear market. They either lead higher or they lead lower. Well if you know what I just said there, the semis have not been leading higher. That is a troubling sign. The semis are 2% above the 200 day moving average.

[00:12:18]:
Now having said all that, what do I think is going to happen? I think the semi are going to, are going to get serious wind at their backs, likely starting with Nvidia earnings on Wednesday. But if that doesn’t happen, if Nvidia disappoints and this group gets hit, there is downside exposure for the market that people should be prepared for. I’m just saying that what are the odds? I think slim frankly. But again, we have to acknowledge what the reality is. And that’s the reality. Now we got some news today. Again, smci, which is a super. What is this? I’ve never, never invested in this one.

SMCI is super microcomputer, another chip maker. Now this thing got added to the S P 500 and the stock was at 122. It’s 24 now. And that’s after being up 32%. Yeah, 32% today. Okay, so this stock got down to a low of 17 last week. Again added to the SB 500 at 122, hit 17. That was recently.

[00:13:22]:
This is the worst addition to The S&P 500 likely ever, certainly in a compressed period of time. But you know, now SMCI is getting some positive news. It’s likely their stock is not going to be delisted either from the index or from the S500. And it’s likely that the worst case scenario is not going to become a reality because the SMCI and Nvidia do business together. So I’m not going to get too, too much in the weeds on that because again, I think this is being resolved. I think, I think this, this, this washout and SMCI is like over. I think today now up 33% is probably telling us that. And I think that the stakeout, which was a bear market, right? Three bear market.

I think that that’s over now. I think that we’ve held up. I think semis are cheap. Barron’s put out a. There’s some news on SMCI now. Okay, Nothing, nothing. All that news. Worthy barons put out a piece today that agrees with us and says look, this, this sell off in the semis is overdone.

[00:14:28]:
This will remain the leadership group. This is probably the most important point. AI is real. The innovation revolution is real. And we’re still in the first inning. So when you get an opportunity to buy the leadership group at 15% all time highs, when the rest of the market continues to hit all time highs, that’s an opportunity. That’s how we’re approaching it. If we’re wrong, we’ll know Wednesday, folks, after the close, we’ll know Wednesday.

And if that’s the case, I Think we’ll have a market that’s in some trouble? I do not think that will be the case. To be very clear, we are buyers of the semis soxl, a three time leveraged semi etf. We’re long there. We’re buying call options in the in our parabolic options program. So again we’re betting on the bullish case winning out here. That’s our strong belief. But now we’ve told you both sides of the story. So if we’re wrong, we’ll know on Wednesday afternoon.

[00:15:24]:
How about that? All right folks, let’s get to the to the internals today. Not actually pretty good. Tell you the truth. In our first of all in our area refresh. All right fans decline was slightly positive for NASDAQ again today in our markets NASDAQ was our leader of 610 to 1%. That’s what you want to see. By the way, just FYI, the semis meaning SMH also up 6/10 of 1%. Technically this is a textbook move today because the semis slightly outperformed Nasdaq.

That is a textbook scenario that you we saw slightly today but we did see it and we haven’t seen it much lately because the semites have been getting brutalized. Okay. But again, good day for the day for NASDAQ. Rough 2000 up to 1/10 of 1%. SVF hundred up 410 1% only the Dow is lower in the day down by 55 points. No damage at all done here. So again in our internals, NASDAQ slightly positive. NYSE also a little more positive.

[00:16:34]:
NYC than NASDAQ was as far as advanced decline. Volume solidly positive for Nasdaq. What are we looking at here? What is this? Two and a half to one positive. Pretty good day there. Also NYC finished up. What is this? One and a half to one positive. So pretty good readings there. We did have about, we had about a hundred more stocks here in a 52 week low than 52 week high.

But no grape takes there at all. Sector watch. This is where we have some really good news. We had our 11 SPF 100 sectors we had 10 of them finished higher. Led to the upside by energy again. Oil higher on Russia, Ukraine troubling possibilities. And oil was up big today. Energy stocks today up over 1%.

Communication surgeons up 1%. And consumer discretionary also up 1%. To the downside again very little. Industrials down just a fraction of a percent in our commodity watch again good day here. Technically this group is oversold on steroids. Ready to rally and again, we believe this is the bull market of bull markets for precious metals and miners. That’s been our theme for a couple of years now. We’ve been right.

[00:17:49]:
Why would we change our story now? Gold today of $45 an ounce. It’s up 1.8% to 2616 an ounce. Silver also a big up 2.7%. That’s 82 cents an ounce at 31, 25. Copper today also nicely one and a half percent at $4.12 a pound. Crude oil again, this is a big day for crude. Been a while since we’ve seen this kind of a day. Crude oil up $2.19 a barrel.

That’s a big 3.2% at 69. Still, still below 70. $69.11. And again finally on the day here, cryptocurrency Bitcoin91172. That’s up 2.2% over the last 24 hours. You know, it’s the all time high. It’s right below. I mean it’s $2,000 below all time high.

[00:18:42]:
We’ll probably get that tonight. And again, I really do believe that the move to 100,000 tech going to happen in the very near future. So a good time to be long and strong. I don’t know that I would buy here. I don’t know that I would buy here. It is overbought, but certainly not a time to sell. All right folks, that’s it for today. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.