VRA Investing Podcast: Bull Market Personality Traits Pointing to Higher Prices – Kip Herriage – June 18, 2024

In today's episode, Kip explores this structural bull market driven by abundant global liquidity, hot IPOs, and upcoming mergers and acquisitions. With both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs again today, Kip breaks dow ...

Posted On June 18, 2024Episode 1407

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About This Episode

In today's episode, Kip explores this structural bull market driven by abundant global liquidity, hot IPOs, and upcoming mergers and acquisitions. With both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq hitting all-time highs again today, Kip breaks down the VRA's bullish outlook with long-term price targets for the Dow Jones at 100,000 and Nasdaq at 40,000.


Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the Daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Today. Feels like a Friday, doesn’t it? At least for those in the market as tomorrow, the market is closed for Juneteenth. And we come back again Thursday and Friday. Of course, a shortened, shortened week this week. Hope you had a good day. This is a monumental day today for several reasons. Number one, today was marked the 31st day of 2024 that we had all time highs. And the SB 500, I believe it’s 20 some odd days in Nasdaq that we’ve had all time highs this year. And that’s just going to continue to be the case, folks.

I see a lot of Wall street market strategists that are now raising the price targets. We’ve never done that here, really. We have a long term price target. This is the bull market. That takes the Dow Jones to 100,000. We’re at 38,000 to change now. And this is the bull market. Takes Nasdaq.

This is the bigger one. Takes Nasdaq to 40,000. We’re at 17, eight now. So that’s our long term target. I actually think we’ll be on the low side of both of those because it’s going to be a long, this is going to be a very long term bull market because, again, it’s structural in nature. This is what so many people continue to miss. I was supposed to be on Charles Pain show tomorrow, but not going to be able to be on it. I’ll be on next week, and I hopefully can have this conversation with Charles about the fact that as a structural bull market and a structurally strong economy, things are happening here that just aren’t being picked up by most metrics.

And you added the fact that global liquidity is such a, you just can’t even, it’s hard to put into words. The amount of liquidity is down there. Money is everywhere, and it’s chasing deals. And we haven’t even gotten to the hot IPO part of the market, haven’t even got to the hot mergers and acquisitions phase of this bull market. So we have a very long ways to go. I think picking annual targets doesn’t make much sense, except that we continue to believe we’re going to have a lot of years of 2025, 30% returns in the s 500 and probably better in Nasdaq. And if you’re a decent stock picker or ECF picker, as we like to do, then I think you’ll do very well in this market. But yeah, monumental day, all time highs again, Nasdaq, SB 500.

And of course, today marked the day that Nvidia for the first time became the world’s largest public company, surpassing Apple and Microsoft. What an amazing story. And we’ve been along for the ride. We have. As everyone here knows, we own Soxle was three time leveraged ETF for the semis. About 20% of that portfolio is in Nvidia. So we’re not in a direct holder, but we’re very indirect, very much an indirect holder in Nvidia. And we just crossed another big barrier today from the past pound the table call that we made on SoXl, the bear market lows of October 13, 2022.

Soxl today was up 1000%. We’ve made ten times our money in that leveraged ETF. So, you know, to the folks out there that say leveraged ETF’s shouldn’t be used, I’d say fine, just stop, don’t, please don’t use them. Let this be the terrain of market professionals that understand how these things actually work and the fact that there are six, seven, eight, maybe nine or ten leveraged ETF’s that you can use, use responsibly and if you have the ability to time the market. Time in the market takes discipline, but it’s also in some ways more art than science. But you just have to simply know how to use discipline, how to buy, when to sell. There is a time to sell. We’re not there yet, by the way, for Soxel, again, because it’s bull market and the semis is just getting, it really is just getting started.

Got a very long ways to go. But again, we cross the barrier today. Thousands of gains from the bear market lows of 2022 in Soxville. So congratulations everyone that held on along the way. And again, we think this bull market is just getting started. Dow Jones today finishing up 56 points. Kind of a quiet day today, frankly. Up just over one 10th, 1%, s 500 today up a quarter of a percent rose 2000 today up one 10th, 1%.

Nasdaq up just five points on the day. So again, very quiet day. Ten year yields continue to falter, now down to 4.21%. Those yields will continue to fall again. We got retail sales numbers, excuse me, almost over this call, do not know what it is. Taking everything to God’s green earth naturopathically to get rid of it. It’s almost gone. But yeah, retail sales were not good.

So you think about it, think back to last week we had one good number. That was the jobs number. Right. The employment number for the month of May. That came in strong. But think about everything else. Literally everything else has come in. Leading economic indicators, consumer sentiment, now retail sales.

We had the CPI and the PPI data, both which showed considerable disinflation, continues to build. All of this data is not pointing to an economy that’s running away with a big head of steam. It’s pointing to economy that needs a little help because the Fed is way too restrictive. At five effective Fed funds rate of 5.33% bid. Ask a five and a quarter. Five and a half, effectively 5.33% is the fed funds rate and the ten year yield is 4.2. Something’s got to give here. The Fed should have just stayed the course and now they started whacking with the system and now they’re saying, oh, and it’s not just inflation, now it’s employment too.

What? Make up your mind. This is the problem that I’ve always had with these very smart, dumb people, is that they like to tinker with things and now they want to be the center of the universe. They see that they can be, they like being the cool kids at the lunch table and they tend to stay there. And that means I like to micromanage. And that’s when they start making mistakes, and that’s what they’re doing here. The Fed is going to cut rates this year. We’ve been consistent with this. We said two to three times this year, the entirety of 2024.

We think that’s where it’s going to come. However, however, if they wait too long to cut, then they get into embarrassment mode again. They have to embarrass themselves again. Instead of doing a quarter point cut, maybe doing two or three of those this year, then they have to jump to do a half point cut. Or maybe if something gets goofy with regional banks, they have to jump in and do a three quarter point cut. And that’s the sign of desperation. No one wants that. No, because that’s not good for stocks and we don’t want that.

Right. So I really don’t think that’s going to happen. I think the bottom line for this economy is that it’s, again, so structurally strong, the Fed does this. The Fed sees what’s happening with AI. Let’s see what’s happening with tech growth again. When you have tech, the largest tech companies in the country, investing more than $100 billion back into their own businesses in this kind of a powerful upgrade cycle, you know, a couple things. The economy is on rock solid footing and never short the market only belong stocks. Then again, we also have, of course, our ultimate right, the semis.

Our ultimate semis. I just covered that, didn’t I? Hitting all time highs again today. I mean, this is just a house on fire. SMH is mitf up another 1.7% today? The numbers are just downey of 40% in the last two months, up 238% from the bear market lows against Sox hole. The three time leverage you have hit 1000% up from the bear market lows. And yet. But you have a lot of people still doubting it. A lot of people thinking this is a house that’s built on sand.

This is not. This is a house with a really solid foundation. As a reminder, most of the things that are happening now had their birth from the.com, from. From.com. these are all ideas that started then, and it’s just taken all this time to perfect them and really build them out. And again, the fascinating thing for me is that we haven’t even seen where this is going to take us yet. We just know that AI seems like a pretty interesting idea. Little scary as well.

But these things go wrong. We all know about Skynet, right? And Terminator. I mean, you listen to Elon Musk talk and it’s not too far from the truth. These things could happen. So, yeah, we got to keep an eye on it. But from a growth point of view, we don’t even really know what this is going to do yet. We just know that all of these companies want to, want to buy all these advanced chips from Nvidia that they can, and now what are they going to do with them? Well, we’re going to find that out, aren’t we? But I think it’s going to be. We’re going to see a lot of marvels take place throughout the economy and in favor of mankind.

And I think we’re looking at a very, very cool place, a very cool time to be alive in history, I think. Excuse me, again, at the end of the day, that’s what we’re going to remember as these years march forward. Everybody always asks, okay, I missed Nvidia. What’s the next Nvidia? No, the next Nvidia is Nvidia. That’s what one of my great friends, Ed, I’ll just say first name. I know he listens to this podcast. He’s a resident Silicon Valley expert, a true semiconductor chip expert. That’s what he keeps telling me.

There is no other Nvidia it’s Nvidia. And so I think that Ed’s right and I think that we’ll continue to buy Soxl and certainly on dips, add to positions using, adding another pool position to trade with. Again, it’s three time leverage. Some really good options there with things we can do. But I will say that I think there is another Nvidia. I think the next Nvidia is Tesla. I really do. I think the next Nvidia is Tesla.

Look, we’ve been pat on the table in the stock for a long time. I’ve loved the heritage family, has been a fan of Elon Musk for a long time and owned the stock for a long time. And I think the Tesla is going to be an unbelievable story from an investment point of view and just an accomplishment and invention point of view. Most of you know the story, but it’s like owning five companies in one, right? We know we got the EV, the EV story, but part of that is battery, right? Battery storage. They’re doing that not just for EV’s. They’re using these massive batteries to store electricity, power, electrical power all over the world. Again, this is not a story a lot of people know about. And then, of course, you got the new robotics division.

That’s Optimus. If you heard Elon Musk just this week, it thinks alone that could be worth $30 trillion for the company. So you run the numbers and you start saying, ok, that sounds crazy, but when you run the numbers, if they price these robots, Optimus robots, at $20,000 per household or $20,000 per purchase, if you will, if they’re making $10,000 per optimist. And you see, okay, they’re going to sell 100 million of these. What? Yeah, you start seeing real quick, no, we’re talking about legitimately having a trillion dollars in revenue from one product. And that doesn’t even factor in what’s going on with the robo taxi, which, of course, is going to change the entire landscape for automotive, everything in this country. So this is like owning a lot of companies inside of one. Everyone’s really, really, really exciting.

If I were Elon, he just announced yesterday he’s got, what do you say, Tesla 4.0 or something like that. The next iteration. Get ready. The next iteration of Tesla is coming. I probably spin each one of these companies out to his own public company. That’s probably what I would do. I keep a controlling interest. That can be done in a very creative way, by the way.

So he even owns more of each company than he does now collectively as a whole. I would probably do that and then have each of these as a publicly traded company. And that way the light is shown on each company. See what I’m saying? Now, Wall street analysts are forced to look at, let’s say Optimus is the name of his robotics company. Analysts are. Folks are forced to look at that and value that on its own basis is, for example, think about SpaceX. SpaceX is private. It’s owned by.

He’s the largest investor. But it’s not part of Tesla. It’s a private company where they’re already dying. It’s something like $150 billion that Tesla’s not valued at much more than that right now. Tesla’s valuation is what is a. Pull up real quick here. Tesla’s market cap is $588 billion. So they’re valuing SpaceX at one quarter of Tesla.

So imagine if they were to do this with Optimus. Do it battery storage, battery research division, and then do another with robo taxi, and then have Tesla, the EV company. You can see each one of these would probably begin to carry a market cap much, much larger than it would as a whole, individually. Instead, that’s what I would do. I’ve heard no rumor that he’s going to be doing it, but that’s probably what I would do if I really want to just bring maximum value to all of these assets and increase my individual position, ownership position in each one. So we’ll see if someone just shoots this podcast over to him. My guess is he’s already thought about this, that he’s probably got it on the whiteboard. We’ll see.

Maybe he’s going to do it. Saw an interesting interview the other day with an employee that’s worked with engineers, worked with yellow mus for a very long time, who said in the interview, as a woman, she said, I went through the interview process, and it was fascinating. She talked about how that went, and she worked with all these division heads, and they’re drawing up actual problems that they’re working on right now. So it wasn’t just random questions or getting to know you questions, or how would you handle this? Or what are you afraid of? None of that stuff, right? It was serious questions about, how would you handle this? We’re doing this right now. How would you help us design this? And so when she got hired and she had to meet with four different division heads before she got hired, she found out that all these people work together. You know, they’re all separate in their own divisions, but they all work together. All these cubicles are just right there next to each other. And then she’s walking down the aisle, and there’s Elon Musk’s cubicle just among everybody else’s.

And I’ll just wrap with this. She said that one of the Funny stories is that there are times where Elon’s working so hard that he gives the employees a challenge to see who can keep him up the longest, to keep him from sleeping. And because that’s, that’s the kind of work ethic this guy has. And I’ll just say, I also know another engineer from ways back. I’ve told this story a few times, haven’t told in a while, who told me that. He said I could never use his name when I told this story. If I added the end to it, you’ll see what I’m talking about in a second. He said that they would go home.

He said, I cannot tell you the number of times that we would go home and not have an answer to a problem. But Elon would stay the night, and we come back, and in the morning, he had the answer to the problem. He figured out the problem. He said, it’s the dangerous thing, he said, and this is the part he told me I couldn’t use his name for. He said, I don’t believe that aliens walk among us, but if they do, Elon is absolutely one of them. All right. And it was the way he said it, it kind of got my attention. It was like he didn’t really laugh, you know what I mean? So I kind of thought, okay, well, this is interesting, right? But anyway, I think Tesla is the next Nvidia.

I think it’s going to be the largest companies to ever exist on planet Earth within probably five years, maybe seven. But I think it’s easily, easily a ten bagger inside of five years. This means going to have a $5 trillion market cap inside of five years. Again, Tyler talks with us all the time. We have three companies now with market cap of better than 3 trillion. Of course. Microsoft, Nvidia. Right.

Microsoft and Apple, in that order. We have three with more than three worth more than $3 trillion. Where is this number going to be in a few years? Holy cow. This is that bull market, folks. Let’s stay locked in, especially when we see things like this. I just can’t get over this. This is the damnedest thing I’ve ever seen. The fear greed index as of end of last week, was it fear territory? It’s still there.

It’s still there. I read it up yesterday in the letter. It was at 38. It’s 42 today. That’s still in fear territory. We have all time highs. 31 all time highs this year. Yes, 500 almost every day now.

Both S 500. Nasdaq hitting all time highs. And the fear and green index, one of the widely used sentiment surveys. Not a survey, it’s an index. Is still in fear territory. I if you’re a contrarian, you can only say one thing. Thank you. Thank you for this gift.

This is a gift from God. This is, this is a straight up buy signal. It’s a straight up, back at the truck buy signal. When you see this happen, there’s just no other way around it. Okay. And I hope it continues. Staying in fear territory so we can, you know, watch this 1200 gain 100% this year or something, because this many people, this bearish, it just makes no sense, but it tells you the world we live in. There is a sign up of negativity.

I’m absolutely convinced of it. The more I write about it, the more research it, the more I look into it, the more I think about it, the more I believe it to be true. And it is. It’s there. I can’t fully explain it, but it is there. The number of people that just don’t believe you when you tell them how good the economy is, it’s just, they look at you like, what are you crazy? Do you not watch the news? Do you not watch box? Do you not watch CNN? Do you not know how bad things are out there? I’m like, no, I don’t. And things are really good. I don’t know what you’re talking about.

But, hey, if it’s working for you, you keep doing it, right? I wrote this up this morning also because there are repeating patterns. Technical analysis, the basis of technical analysis, repeating patterns. And so I like to look for repeating patterns in the markets. And they give you a personality trait. Every bull market’s got their own, and we’re seeing it right now. Number one, we know the obvious one, right? This bull market’s being led by tech, the semis. In tech, every great bull market says QE. Every, every move by the bull and bear market is led by the semis.

And so when you see the semis doing what they’re doing, you only really have to know one thing belong the market. That’s all you have to know. We’re getting a little stretch. I’ll share that chart probably on Thursday. We’re getting towards the top end of that channel. That relative strength channel we share with you so often of the semis SB 500. We’re getting near to that top line, but we still have a little ways to go. But it’s still on full on bicycle without question.

If anything, we might just get a short term pause or shakeout. But remember, we have what’s happening next week. Yeah, that’s right. Next week is true. Front running week in advance of beginning of month and begin. We don’t just have the beginning of the new month. We got beginning to quarter. We got a lot of money going to be plowing back into this market from pension funds, retirement plans, I mean, obviously, stock purchase programs.

So much money comes into the market every month. And so the smart money starts front running that in advance. So next month, excuse me, end of next week, we’ll only be talking about monthly money coming in, but quarterly money. So you get the double whammy. A lot of money coming into equities at that point. And also, the thing is now, believe it or not, as Tyler said yesterday, we’re almost at the end of Q two. We’re going to get Q two earnings, which are going to be blockbuster again. And I think, yes, I saw from FactSet was that they’re expecting earnings to grow by 9% in the quarter, and that’s not bad.

But if fact sets at 9%, analysts are always wrong. On the low side. What are we looking at? 1314 15% earnings growth. This is why stocks keep going up, because earnings are rising rapidly. This is not rocket science, but that’s what’s happening, and that’s why the market’s going to continue to plow higher. So that repeating pattern of the semis and tech leading, we think that that’s going to continue. The other thing that’s happening again today, we’ve had this repeating pattern of weak opens and strong closes with great smart money hours happened again today. So again, we finished not at the highest of today, but all four index finished higher.

We were lower earlier today. Again, today was a quiet day, not a great example. But the rest of this week, last, all of last week, every single day we saw this happen. Smart money is a final hour of trading. And maybe the hour or so that leads up to it. That’s a real tell. We pay attention to it. Those have all been incredibly bullish and very strong.

And then again, the internals have been hideous. Right. Everyone’s talking about it. My guess is if everybody’s talking about it, then everyone’s aware of it. It’s not a surprise. It’s not going to happen. But the eternals have been bad. Breath has been horrible.

And we’ve seen, again, we only have, like, 45% of stocks trading above the 50 day moving average, the SB 500. So you’ve seen a lot of damage beneath the surface, but still, the markets keep hitting all time highs. That’s another tell. Your generals are leading and they’re keeping the rest of the market up while we go through this intra market correction. And it’s really a rotational theme that continues to play out. Again, extraordinarily bullish. If you can have a market that takes a breather instead of having to fall five, six, 7%, that’s a huge win. This market’s got a Teflon feel to it, and the best bull markets do.

Nothing sticks to it. They only go higher. And so it feels like there’s a magnet, again, forcing it higher. And again, there is. It’s called rising corporate earnings. So these are the exact patterns that, of course, again, sentiment is another one. Right. You just can’t believe that these sentiment surveys are so bearish when the markets are all time highs.

But these are the reasons that I would never be short this market. You can’t be bearish on a market like this. It’s showing all the personality traits of a market that wants to do one thing only, and let’s keep going higher. And so I find that the Fed does encourage, by the way, keep them where they are. The market does not seem to care whatsoever. Of course, it would help housing stocks. It would help a lot of people out there. So, yeah, we still think they can do it, but a market clearly does not care if they cut rates or not.

All right, let’s talk about the internals, and let’s go for the short one day off tomorrow as we celebrate Juneteenth. The internals today were better. We had quick refresh here. Yeah, they have not been ugly. Excuse me. They have not been pretty. They’ve, in fact, been gnarly, but they were better today. Nyse, one and a half to one positive.

Advanced decline. Nasdaq only negative by about. What is this, 400 issues? Not much there. Nasdaq volume, by the way, was positive by $800 million worth of trading. That’s pretty decent size. NYSE also posited by about $500 million worth of trade today. So you’re seeing a bit of a bounce back in the eternals today. We did have more stocks hitting in a 52 week low and 52 kai, but not much at all.

But that was a negative. I would still say this is a mixed deposit report, and that’s more than we would say of late. But again, it has not mattered. It just, it has not mattered. You can’t say that about a lot of markets, but when you can say the internals don’t matter, they haven’t mattered and the market keeps going higher. Again, that’s a never shorted, dull market. You know, that’s kind of market. You don’t short.

You have to respect it, in my opinion. In our sector watch today, also a little bit better, we had eight sectors finished higher, three finished lower, led to the upside by, again, quiet day here. Financials and technology, both of 610% to 1%. To the downside, communication services down seven tenths 1%. But again, eight finished higher, three finish lower. That’s what matters most in our commodity watch today. A bit of a bounce back here. This is actually what we expected.

Value stocks and precious metals miners to begin rallying because they shouldn’t have been hit the way they were in the first place. But it is a buying opportunity. We believe gold today up $15 an ounce at 23.44. Silver up three quarters 1%. That’s at $0.21 an ounce at 29.61. Copper today up 1% to 449 a pound. Looks like a great buy on this, on this little consolidation correction here. Crude oil today up another 1.3%.

Love the chart here. Crude oil. Certainly energy stocks look fantastic in our charting system, in our very investing system. We are buying these stocks here. Good value, really good value here. Again, crude oil today, $80.78 a barrel. And finally today, bitcoin, which has been, look, if you pull out, if you zoom out a little bit and take a look at the chart, you see it’s had a trading range from the middle of March of anywhere from 58,000 to the all time high is 73,000. And now we’re stuck at 60, just right, at 65,000.

Right now, just $5 under 65,000. So we’re kind of in that middle of that range. That’s consolidation. I shared my theory the other day as to why I believe this is happening. I think that major buyers, serious institutional buyers, like sovereign wealth funds countries and of course, major corporations globally are buying bitcoin. But they know if they buy it and announce it, which they would have to, that it’s going to run it up. So what they do is they would, if I were them, and I’m assuming this is what they’re doing, makes more sense than anything else, I would partner up with Blackrock or whoever, and say, listen, we want to start with a billion dollar position in bitcoin. Okay? How can you help us? If I was Blackrock, I’d say we’ll short, we use the futures market to short it.

We use the futures market to short it, and then we’ll deliver that position to you as one locked in position of $1 billion. And then when they take the position, they then, you know, that cancels the short sellout. So then they’re long. Now, at that point, they have to announce it. Right? And so then they’re a little bit better about the price running up, having it been announced. Okay. This is very common in the investment world. There are a lot of very effective strategies to do something like that with swaps, etcetera.

But I think that’s what’s happening here. In the interim, it places pressure on bitcoin because it’s selling. It looks like it’s selling. But the point is, there’s a buyer there, right? There’s a buyer waiting for it to take the whole Thing in one block. I think that’s what’s happening, and I think it’s probably happening in many places. Again, 70% or so of all US investment money managers, financial advisors, etcetera, still cannot buy bitcoin. It’s not been approved by their internal compliance departments. That’s the process as well.

So we’ve HAD the public buying. We have a lot of excitement about it all for very good reasons. And I’ll just say the same thing I said about tesLa. I have a few positions where I just buy them because I buy them regularly, and that’s what I do. I’ve always felt that way about gold, to a lesser extent. Silver against silver’s cumbersome. You get more size for your buck with gold, as far as storing the stuff. Right? And I’ve always liked the yellow metal.

I said I felt a way about gold. I’ve never hesitated, never lost an ounce of sleep over buying gold on a regular basis. Same way about bitcoin. Don’t have any trepidation at all. We’ve traded it once, we’ve done very well in it, and now we’re back in. For the long run, I think everything you buy here is going to be come back to us gold. And like gold has. And also Tesla, again, it’s a stock that I just.

I find myself just thinking about Tesla a lot, you know, in my all time and researching the company. I’m watching an Elon Musk documentary right now that I look forward to. Really getting into since we have a dow tomorrow. Right. And I think that that’s a stock that’s going to make us all incredibly wealthy. And it’s a very cool story to know. And now this in Texas, it feels, even feels more like home to get to know him and the story better. But there are stocks like that that I buy and I just don’t, I always look at if the price is down, it’s a gift.

And I really do. That’s really always been the approach to Warren Buffett. It was the approach of Peter lynch. If it’s down, it’s on sale. Thank you very much. Blue light special. Here we go. All right, folks, that’s it for today.

Hey, again, hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again Thursday after the close.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 Global liquidity fuels optimistic market predictions and performance.
03:04 use leveraged ETFs responsibly.
08:24 Concerns about AI advancements but potential benefits.
10:48 Elon Musk predicts $30 trillion value.
13:42 detailed interview process with engineers.
17:56 Strongly believe in good economy, despite skepticism.
19:50 Surge in market money and Q2 earnings.
22:41 Bullish market, no care for rate cuts.
25:59 Theory: big buyers quietly buying and shorting.
29:16 Invest in stocks when prices are low.

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Episode 1415 | July 02, 2024
VRA Investing Podcast: All-Time Highs, Tesla’s Surge, and Contrarian Investment Strategies – Kip Herriage- July 02, 2024

In today's episode, Kip takes a deep dive into current market trends and explores why he stands firmly as a contrarian investor. We'll unpack Tesla's recent 10% stock surge, and fresh all time highs from the mega-cap tech companies like Microsoft, Apple, and Amazon, and all time closing highs from our major indexes. Tune into today's VRA Investing Podcast to learn more!