In today’s show, Kip breaks down a stellar day on Wall Street, highlighting new all-time highs for the S&P 500 and major moves in sectors like small caps and semiconductors. He digs deep into the market's broadening strength, th ...
Don’t look back to the market is closed. Good Thursday after everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a good day today. Going to keep this a bit brief today. Let’s get right to it. Another Good day today. S&P 500 closing at all time highs today, big 8/10 of 1% today of 53 points.
But the winner today, and this is, I think we’re going to see this happen more and more as this market continues to broaden. One of the themes of this bull market that should continue to play out right now, Russell 2000 today, small caps up 1 point, almost 1.3% today. Nasdaq again, market leader up for 1% today. Dow Jones today up a big 350 points today. What’s interesting here about this market, and this is a theme that we’ve been talking about a lot here, by the way, semis today led everything up 1.4% today. But this theme that, that really is not being talked about nearly enough. And it’s shocking to me, frankly. Not surprising, but shocking is something we’ve talked about often.
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Here is what’s happening in the bond market, what’s happening with interest rates, what’s happening with liquidity. There is an ocean of liquidity out there and it’s driving everything. Cover this this morning in our VR letter today, the 10 year broke down to, to a what is a 45 month low today, a 10 year, 10 year yield today closing at 4.17%. This is going to drive everything, folks. This is driving the bus because in addition to rates plummeting, which has been our call for some time now, that Trump is just basically manhandled Federal Reserve, you know, and look at this Lisa Cook story. Federal Reserve Governor, the more that comes out about this woman, the more damning it looks not just for her right now. It looks like she’s been guilty of mortgage fraud in not one, not two, but three cases basically claiming that, that every home that she’s purchased has been her primary residence. That’s not the way it works.
Right. And so now the Justice Department has jumped in, they have filed suit and, or shoot me. They’re, they’re, they’re actually pursuing charges against her. You know, she had an opportunity here when Trump and, and Bill Pulte of Trump’s administration and housing had, he came forward and said, listen, we think you’re guilty of mortgage fraud and you should, you should step down. She said, no, I’m going to fight it. And she used the, she really did quietly it was the race card, folks. That’s what she used. The gender and the race card.
How tired is that? Those days are over. The days of victimhood, folks, is part of what we talked about. We’ve won the culture war, right? America is in the process of healing. This kind of game doesn’t work anymore. And, and it doesn’t matter what you’re claiming victimhood of, it’s over. It won’t work. Americans have moved past this, right? How amazing is that? You know, you’re going to get by on what you, what you can accomplish, what your accomplishments are and what your abilities are, the way it’s supposed to be. Well, Lisa Cook now is going to be another of these Fed governors is going to be leaving and Trump is going to have complete control of the Federal Reserve before long.
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It’s just fascinating story. I know there are people, you know, Wall street types, okay, you know, professional economist types that have a problem with this because they’re saying the Fed is losing its independence. Right? It’s got to maintain that that is complete as a smoke show. That’s never the way it’s supposed to be. This has always been a cabal of private bankers set up to really control people, to control us, to print our money at, to just again into, into oblivion. And that’s what’s happened. Of course, we all know this now. The Federal Reserve, since they were created in 1913, the US dollars lost 98% of its value.
Money printing is their gain because they know how to profit from it. The average person is a slave to it. And this, these are the kind of things that Trump again, is bringing to the surface. So I would encourage everybody, instead of falling for the mainstream media’s continuing, you know, know, a message of, oh, they’re, they’re attacking the Fed’s independence. Right. And this is bad for us. I would, I would encourage everyone to look through that. And I think most people are, again, this, this victimhood game, it doesn’t matter who you are.
It ain’t working. Not going to work. Federal Reserve not going to work for Lisa Cook, and it’s not going to work for Jay Powell. And that’s the other part of the story that is, I think, is fascinating. We’re now getting a very clear picture of the lack of oversight and the lack of due diligence that Jay Powell has done into his own people. Remember, he’s been Federal Reserve chair now since 2018. Yes, Trump did put him in. Trump likes to blame someone else for that decision.
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But Trump didn’t make the decision, of course, you know, it was his first time in holding office. Kind of give the guy a pass for getting snowed by this. But it did happen. Who wouldn’t that happen to, by the way, if I’m being honest? Thrust into that kind of a role, not having a staff and not knowing who to trust. I mean, you know, you got, you got to put people in a position. Jay Powell seemed to be a guy that, you know, based on everything we knew about him, was a guy you could trust. Well, I think that’s becoming not, not so clear now. And I think based on the job they’ve done of just putting people in as Fed governors, there’s only 12 of them in the country.
These are primo jobs. And now we find out she’s under qualified, she is very likely guilty of plagiarism in her, in her PhD. And so again, these are all the things coming out the surface now. But it reflects not just bad on Lisa Cook, but it reflects really bad, poorly on Jay Powell and the entire Federal Reserve. And God, thank God for that. It’s about time this happened. I’ve only been talking about this now for three decades. And when I first learned the truth about the Federal Reserve, when I met Gvard Griffin and read the Creature from Jekyll island, and my eyes were open, never to be closed again.
But this really sits at the heart of the problems that we have in this country. I’ve said this on stages all over the planet that the Federal Reserve is responsible for almost everything that’s gone wrong in this country and so much has gone right. But for the average family where both spouses now have to work, both have to work right to, to make the same take home money that one income would, would take, would, would bring in like 30 years ago, maybe even two decades ago. But that’s only because of money printing. That’s the Federal Reserve, that’s our, that’s our financial system. It’s again, the printing away and the destruction of the value of our currency. And, and again, you’ll find nobody in the mainstream really that talks about this, which is really our first clue, is it not? But again, getting back to race now that Trump is, is resting control of the Federal Reserve. Trump and Bessant by Scott Besant is I think the untold hero of this administration because behind the scenes he’s tried to work with Jay Powell, he’s tried to talk common sense into him about bringing race down.
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There’s no reason for it to be this high. There never has been again, this is this is their, this is their control attempt of Trump knowing that this economy is going to take off like a rocket ship once rates begin to fall. And that’s the point I made this morning in our, in our very letter, about 10 year yields falling to the lowest level since May, the first getting close to today at 4.176% because we’re getting a breakdown now on the, on the charts. Technically speaking, this chart looks bad, meaning that rates are going lower and bond prices are going higher. I think we’re going to see a pretty fascinating situation evolve here over the next several years as Trump and beset. I’ve been talking about this. I’m actually writing this up now. It’s a very, it’s a very difficult story to explain in a way that makes sense to most people and frankly, the way that I understand it.
But the attempt here that Trump and Besson are trying is to inflate away our debt. And it’s a tricky game. You know, you’ve got to take advantage of what is a fixed what rate, meaning treasuries. And you’ve got to actually inflate the, yes, you are inflating the, the economy. So you are purposely inflating that, that can get tricky. That could, that can turn into something that is not a very good thing. If we were to ever have a situation of hyperinflation. And you’ve got to make sure that our, the debt we’re able to lock in, that replaces this higher level debt is going to be lower.
So you have to have pressure on rates. They must be going lower for this strategy to work. But if it works, and we’re already seeing, by the way, that I talked about this yesterday, the Federal Reserve, now the Treasury Department is buying treasury bonds back. They’re not, not, not, not the Fed, but the US treasury is, it’s their own form of quantitative easing, buying back the debt to, to inflate away the debt. And this is what they want to do here. So again, I’m going to, I’m going to get to a point where I can explain this in a way that really makes a lot more sense. It’s not, it’s not an easy topic for most people to understand. It’s not a easy topic for me to understand because this has really never been done before, certainly not at this level.
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What we’re sitting with, you know, was it $37 trillion in debt, but the lower rates is a battle that Trump and Bessant are winning. And that’s the key takeaway here. And if we’re right about this, and if we think that by the end of the year, the 10 year will finish below 4% by end of next year send you below 3%. And now this is when in a strategy, a strategy like this inflating away the debt can really start to work. I think the markets already know it’s coming again all time highs today, today, again in the SP 500. But the, the story that’s not being talked about nearly. This is the story folks. This is, look, yes, we have an innovation revolution that unbelievable.
Yes we have the Trump economic miracle, that’s unbelievable. But from a macro structural point of view, the fact that we have M2 money supply, a $22 trillion all time high, we have seven and a half trillion dollars of that sitting in money market accounts all time high. And we have 34 trillion again another record $34 trillion sitting in home, home equity. Right when rates begin to fall and people have more sense that okay, you know what these, these terrorists tariff policy is working best in strategy of potentially inflating away the debt is working. People become more confident in the economy as if we’re right that GDP growth surpasses 5% at some point by mid next year. Again that’s been our call for some time. If that begins to filter into the public’s eye and the soft surveys start to go, go, go the way they should, which is go bye bye because they’re just nonsensical and that’s how they control us, right? All these stuff surveys that, oh people, people are expecting inflation to be 5%. People are expecting the economy to be weak.
These are, these are not hard data surveys and not that we can trust those anyway, right with the BLS and what we found there. So again, these are battles that Trump is having to fight one after another. It is fascinating to watch this play out. And again he’s got a great partner investment there that is right there with him making it happen. So you, there’s a revolution that’s taking place inside our own government. A lot of this happening behind the scenes. But if you just watch, you see all the signs of it happening and if I’m right about this, and if, if, if, if rates are going to continue lower, if people begin to become more confident in the economy and if I’m right that GDP growth is going to 5% plus then yeah, guess what? That is going to happen. Then guess what’s going to happen as rates plummet? This unbelievable ocean of liquidity that gives Americans and American companies the ability to lever up something we’ve not done in some time.
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People have been so afraid that they’re paying off their debt. That’s why we have $34 trillion sitting in home equity. That’s why 40% of all homeowners have no mortgage. People are still scared to death from what happened with the financial crisis. Like I’ll never let that happen again. So that’s all really helped to really stabilize and not just stabilize, but really strengthened to a degree we’ve never, at least not in decades seen in this country. That’s how strong both our balance sheet is and the corporate balance sheet. Again, a topic very rarely talked about today.
American companies have the lowest debt to market cap in 50 years. Do you hear people talking about this? No. Why do you think companies are buying back their shares every year at record levels? Because they have no debt, they don’t need to take on debt and they have so much extra cash they’re just buying back their own stock. Why would they do that? Because they know what their stock price is going to do going forward. It’s going to. Their stock prices are going to continue to rise and I think that’s really going to pick up speed. I really do. I think next year is going to be a barn burner of the year.
I think this fourth quarter is going to be exceptional and I think we’re going to. It’s a melt up bull market, folks. It’s a melt up bull market. There are a lot of ways to play this. But again as we said often here, as rates continue to fall, we want to own the most interest rate sensitive groups there are. What groups benefit the most from lower rates? Okay, that’s obviously growth stocks and top of that list, semis and tech. But all growth stocks, small caps. Now making this big comeback.
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This when the small caps get going folks, and you know what I’m talking about, they go, we’re talking about short term moves of 40, 50, 60%. I think that’s what’s underway here. Now I know Tyler agrees with me on this and so very, very optimistic, very bullish on small caps here. We don’t love those here in the viewer portfolio. And of course the big boys of precious metals and miners, we’ve got a massive exposure there after a long time. Really starting to pay some huge dividends now. And housing stock. Now if you’re with us here, you know that we sold our housing ETF.
I mean look, six week gains of 59% was kind of hard not to take those. Once again we get the Sell signal on the various system just being extremely overbought. We will own housing stocks again. Take that to the bank because again this is a key group that we want to own. As rates continue to plummet. What else today, tomorrow. Remember we get the jobs data tomorrow for the month of August. Now this is big.
It’s one of the reasons the market rallies today. People think it. Honestly they don’t, doesn’t matter. That’s what’s really coming through here. Because if we can’t trust the BLS data, why should we trust the data being reported tomorrow? And I think people are seeing through all this and again it’s just this ocean of liquidity and our five mega trends we’ve talked about here with you now for the last three years. People are just not, they’re ignoring that, that noise. They’re ignoring the mainstream media, the financial media because they’ve been lying to us for so long. We don’t believe the data, we shouldn’t believe the data.
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And again this ocean of money is being, is coming in day after day in increasing amounts into equities, into bonds and it’s going to continue to happen. That’s why we call this a melt up generational bull market. So don’t, don’t be distracted by the noise folks. That’s our big message here. That’s why we try to pound the table on this as much as we can. Because we’ve all been lied to for a very long time. This is, this is a time to be long and strong stocks. This is why buying the dip has been the best strategy for the birth of this bull market.
And it’s why we remain aggressively long here again today. Good day all around. Good internals today. I’ll cover them quickly with you here. Advanced decline today was a two to one. Better than two actually for NYSE almost three to one. Two to one for NASDAQ volume today very, very solid. Two to one on volume for NYSE.
NASDAQ came in at one and a half to one on, on volume. We also had today about, about 100 more stocks hitting 52 week high than a 52 week low in our sector. Watch today. This is even better. We had 10 of 11 sectors finished higher on the day. Let it be upsell by consumer discretionary. What you want to see. Communication services.
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What you want to see. Tech industrials. Again this is a snapshot of what you want to see of these groups advancing. Telling you it’s risk on folks, it’s a broadening bull market. That’s risk on and these dips are going to continue I think to be very short lived. If you read Rich Ross’s report today, by the way, Rich Ross is the quant at Evercore. Love the guy’s work. We publish it about once a week.
And you know, he’s, he’s saying what we’re saying. This market’s broadening. This is a sign of a, this is a textbook bull market indicator. When tech stocks, which they had been weak for a while, right, like not more than a few days, but semis have been lower. Tech stocks have been lower. Max 7 been lower. It did not matter because the market, the money’s not leaving the market. It’s simply shifting to other sectors and other stocks.
And again, that’s what’s happening right now with small caps. That’s what’s happening right now throughout the market again. Housing stocks, energy stocks getting hot again. Love that group by the way. I think we’ve been making a lot of money in that group. We made a decision today not to tell sell something. We thought we were going to feel good about that again. These sectors that have been under loved and unloved are really going to start taking off.
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That’s been the case of course with mining stocks where you know, we’re basically printing money here folks. This is the, this is a money printing bull market for gold. Miners know that. Understand what that means. This is not hype. While I have, I have nothing to gain from telling you this except that this is after 40 years of doing this. I, I think we’ve got a, an unbelievable bull market this underway. We see that already in gold now silver is really getting hot.
But it’s the miners. That’s where the leverage is. It’s always been where the leverage is. These stocks remain dirt cheap. Dirt cheap by every single chance you get. All right, what else today? Commodity watch. Commodities are a little soft today again. Look, this group has been so red hot, okay? It’s been so red hot.
Let me pull that for you here. When you get to extreme overbought and that’s where gold is, that’s where the miners are. This is kind of what happens. But I just don’t think these pauses are going to last long. I really don’t. I think we’re going to see buyers coming in waves. You know we told you Yesterday that for GDX, the gold miner ETF, it finally traded, right? It finally traded more than 40 million shares the day before yesterday. Yesterday was back down to 25 million.
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Today 25 million. Okay, this is Trump change When this group really gets going, we’ll know it. Because these gold mine, the GDX, for example, and GDXJ, the junior gold miner ETF, the volumes will start to explode. The ETF volume coming into these gold ETFs will start to explode. We haven’t even breached that level yet. I’m trying to make this as clear as possible, right? So you know what I’m saying, this, this bull market has barely begun, right? You’re going to be able to, if you, if you want to go buy five homes, right? If that’s what your goal is, to own five homes all over the country, own this group. I mean, I’m, maybe I’m telling you what I’m doing, All right? Own this group. Own it aggressively.
Own it with leverage. And because this is going to be a bull market, folks, if one for the record books, we probably will say that about several sectors. All right. We’ll be able to say it about tech stocks. Certainly with the AI boom and the innovation revolution, there will be a lot of ways to make money in this market, right? A lot of ways over the next many years. But I think the gold miners are going to prove to be. You think, you think Bitcoin had a big move? That’s kind of the thing these, these mining stocks can do. Talking about 10, 20 to 1 returns over a compressed period of time.
Again today, go with softer, you can come off extremely bought. Levels down today, 34 bucks an ounce. Last trade 3601 down just under 1%. Silver today down 1.7% at 4132. That’s down 74 cents an ounce. Copper today down 1.4% at 456 a pound. Crude oil giving up 90, 60, 67 cents a barrel today, down just over 1% at 63.30. Again, I think once Trump conquers the inflation demons, he’s not really worried about it.
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He shouldn’t be, but he knows that the public is, he knows that they, you know, the, the, the, the, the Wall street messengers, the Federal Reserve messengers, they want inflation to come back to say they told you, told you tariffs weren’t going to work. Trump’s got to stay on top of this. He’s doing it by pressuring oil prices. He’s doing it by keeping oil prices down because oil goes in everything. But once that’s over, and I think we’re seeing this in energy stocks now starting to anticipate. Energy stocks have been leading oil higher all year. This relationship is very important. It’s a It’s a relative strength relationship.
We do a lot of work in this area and as we’ve told you over the years, when the semis are leading The S P500, that’s a relative strength chart that matters. Okay. That’s been happening all year. When the miners are leading gold, that’s another one that really matters. That’s, that’s telling you the direction the entire group is going to go. And now we’ve got a significant outperformance in energy stocks over oil. But I think what’s going to happen here is once this inflation beast is tackled officially, right? So even, even, even the Federal Reserve and their, and their, their, their, their, their, their PhD economists, right, like Paul Krugman, even they have to admit that inflation is not happening here and it’s not going to be. Trump knows how to kick it.
Then you’re going to see oil prices really take off. I think we’re looking for some opportunities now to play this. We’ve got some good ones already, of course, that we’re invested in, of course, for Lost Soldier, we’ve got a position in Falcon Oil and Gas. That’s a whole position, but we still own it. And, you know, we’re looking for some other opportunities in the space as well. We’re looking to use leverage on these. So we’re not quite there yet. Well, as always, we’ll keep you in the loop.
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Finally today, Bitcoin a little soft today, down 1.4% at 110,400. Some interesting stories coming out about a regulation in this group. Mstr. Of course, strategy has been soft. I think this is going to set up a very, very good buying opportunity which we’re going to be looking to take advantage of, not just in the VRA portfolio, but in Parabolic Options as well. By the way, for all of you asking, and thank you, by the way, when is parabolic options number 23? This will be program number 23, if you can believe it. When is it going to reopen? When it’s a new program. We’re going to open their formula programs.
We’re going to be opening that in like two weeks. We’ve got a couple more trades we really want to get off in parabolic number 22. I think the week. I think the action coming up over the next one to two weeks is really going to give us that opportunity to really go out strong because it was kind of a dormant program for a while, you know. Anyway, point being, we’ll be opening parabolic 23 up and and we’ll announce that within two weeks. And we’ll make sure everybody’s got that. Got that word. So you can join us if you’d like to.
All right, folks. Hey, always appreciate you. Listen, hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.
In today's episode, Tyler takes a deep dive into a day marked by all-time highs across a wide range of sectors, illustrating just how much the current bull market is broadening beyond the “Magnificent Seven.” He breaks down standout earnings from Taiwan Semiconductor, which sectors are leading the charge, and what the future of the innovation revolution holds. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.
Welcome back to the VRA Investing Podcast! In today’s episode, Kip Herriage breaks down a fascinating day in the markets, where headline numbers showed a decline, but everything beneath the surface pointed towards ongoing strength. Was this dip just a breather in a relentless bull market? Kip Herriage dives into why small caps continue to shine, analyzes powerful positive market internals, and explains how bitcoin and semiconductors are leading the charge—even on a red day..
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