In today's episode, Tyler dives into the recent market movements leading up to the final FOMC meeting of 2024, where another rate cut is expected from the Federal Reserve. He discusses the implications of these rate cuts, the current state of the market, and the potential impact on the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Folks don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Tuesday afternoon everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing Podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today. Going to be a bit of a short podcast here today as I will be on Wayne Roots fantastic show this evening, the Root Reaction on Real America’s Voice. That’ll be on at 10pm Eastern time. So please be sure to tune in tonight on Real America’s Voice. Again, the Root Reaction.

And thank you Wayne for having me back on your show. I’m looking forward to it here as well. Of course it would have been really nice if we got those all time highs from yesterday again today. But that was not the case as we did see a little hesitation in our markets today as we gear up here for the final FOMC meeting of 2024. Now I know a lot of you out there. Let’s just get this behind us right from the Fed and we would agree with you 100%. But tomorrow the Fed is expected to cut rates by another 25 basis points, their third rate cut for 2024, ultimately culminating in 100 basis points of cuts or a full percentage point now for the year. And then all eyes will really be on Jay Powell’s comments after the meeting and the notes from the meeting as well to see what the future path of the Fed funds rates looks like going into this meeting.

[00:01:43]:
The plan for 2025, at least based off of their last notes, was for roughly an another 125 basis points worth of cuts in 2025. So if that’s a 25 basis point cuts again, then five more rate cuts for 2025. So we’ll see if that changes at all after tomorrow, right? We remember back to when Trump was first elected in 2016, the Fed even did a preemptive rate cut. At the time we said it was a mistake. And then in 2017 and 2018 they continued to raise rates, ultimately culminating in the December 2018 sell off that we saw going into Christmas Eve that year. So we wouldn’t put it past the Fed to try to do something to derail the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. But we don’t know if they’ll be capable of doing so with the strength that we see going forward from this economy. So over the medium to long term, it shouldn’t matter much.

We’ll see what the reaction’s like tomorrow. But what we need now from the Federal Reserve is just to get out of our way, let the Trump Administration do their thing. It’s going to be an interesting year next year. We think it’s going to be another great year for the market, but interesting in the point of what is the Department of Government Efficiency Doge going to get into next year? Right, we, I’ve, I’ve talked a little bit about this on the podcast. What we’ve seen from Javier Mal’s Argentina, right since he got into office. At first it was a little turbulent. Inflation was still at 25%. The ended up having to print a little bit more money during that time while he was deregulating getting rid of their useless government agencies at the time.

Now one year later, their GDP is back over 3% and inflation is back down to their target levels. So it didn’t happen overnight. But what we’ve seen from a year of Javier Mal is that this is certainly possible. So during this time period we just need the Fed to get out of the way, don’t throw us any curveballs here and let the market do its job here. You know, I’ve talked about this a lot on the podcast that we need more than a revamp of the Fed. At the very least we need a complete redesign of the Fed. But I’m more so in the Ron Paul camp of abolish the Fed, which is why I’m so excited about the Department of Government Efficiency which some rumors been floated around. Ron Paul has already said that he’d be willing to help.

[00:04:32]:
So we’d love to see that here. But again given the strength of what we see coming in the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0, it may not matter here what the Fed does. So we’ll see what we get back from the Fed tomorrow. But again we just need them to stay out of our way. That said, the markets were a little nervous about it today day as we did finish lower across the board here. We’re led lower today by the small caps down 1.18% to 2,334. After that we had the Dow Jones down just over six tenths of 1%, marking its nine day losing streak now its first nine day losing streak since 1978. So, you know, not great to see that.

But after the move higher that we’ve seen from the November election, it’s not surprising to see a little year end profit taking here. And that’s all we see this as, not a sign of something worse to come. To give you a little bit of a perspective, yeah, nine down days hurt, but we’re only roughly 3.7, a little over 3.7% away from from its all time high. So it’s been a pretty controlled move lower so far. And we can’t forget the Nasdaq just hit an all time high yesterday. The S and P is even closer than the Dow than it’s to its all time high as well. So again we are not overly concerned at these levels even though again nine down days is is never fun. Next up, the S&P 500 down 39% to 6050.

And lastly the NASDAQ down 310 of 1% at 2109. We did see a pop in the Vix today up 8.8% to a 15 now. But what I thought was interesting today is that yesterday the Fear and Greed index actually got back into greed territory. But it didn’t stay there for long. Today we’re back into neutral territory on the Fear and Greed index as we talk about here often until we get to the point where we’re at extreme greed for week over week, even months of extreme greed levels. And you start to hear market market commentators saying things like this market just can’t go lower, stocks only go up. Right? We’ve seen that story before. Until we get to that point, we think that the smart money strategy continues to be to buy the dip.

[00:07:14]:
Nothing has changed in our point of view here, including the internals which we just got 12 straight sessions in a row here of more declining stocks than advancing stocks. So let’s dive in to the internals here. Yes, negative, advanced decline again today over 2 to 1. Negative on the NYC, a little bit better on the Nasdaq. But again that’s 12 straight sessions with more declining stocks than advancing stocks. But there is a silver lining in here. Going back to 1992, we’ve seen streaks a little bit shorter than this one. This is a record here.

But the eight other times we’ve seen similar streaks in declining stocks over advancing stocks since 1992. Only one time have the markets been lower one year later. So overall you could look at this as a bullish indicator. Seven out of eight times, one year later the market is still higher. Now on to the rest of the internals. We did have more highs to lows as well. More stocks making 52E lows than 52E highs on both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. But volume continues to see inflows into the Nasdaq.

We with $5.2 billion flowing into the Nasdaq to just $4.3 billion declining in the Nasdaq today. Although we did have slightly negative numbers for the nyse. So not great internals today. But again there are some silver linings in there. Absolutely. Next up, looking at our sectors here on the day today we were led by just one positive sector day. One out of 11 positive today. But that sector hit an all time high consumer discretionary as Tesla continues its ramp higher here.

[00:09:04]:
Tesla up 3.6%. Excuse me, 3.6% on the day to day hitting another all time high here. I do plan to talk about this a little bit on Wayne root show tonight. I’ve got a big call that I’ve been excited to make here. Been doing a lot of research on as well as well. So again make sure to tune in to the root reaction tonight at 10:00pm Eastern Time. Looking forward to going through the Tesla story with Wayne as well. We’ll see if we get to it.

We got a lot of exciting topics to talk about. If not, I’ll cover it here Thursday on the podcast. But suffice to say we remain extremely bullish on Tesla here even at all time highs. But again we’ll dive into it a little bit more hopefully later this evening if we have time for it. In my interview this evening for our laggards on the day today we were led lower by industrials, energy and the financials. And on that note the 10 year yield was lower today down a quarter of 1% at a 4.38. Now something I hope to talk about tonight as well a little bit that yields at these levels don’t concern us here. Remember we’ve compared this period to the 1995 to 2000.com melt up where the NASDAQ rallied 575% and yields averaged over 6% during that time period as well.

So no yields at 4.3%, 4.38 don’t worry us here here. Finally here for today, our V Commodity watch. Let me get a quick refresh of my screens here. There is some red on the screen today. Gold now down 310 of 1% at 2,662. Silver down a quarter of 1% to $3.97 an ounce. Copper now down over 1% at $4 a pound and oil back below $70 a barrel here down 1.24% at $69.83 a barrel. And finally here for today, Bitcoin hit another all time high here today getting above $18,000 of Bitcoin hitting a all time high of 18,244.

[00:11:27]:
It since has settled down a little bit now still up over half a percent on the day at $106,446 of Bitcoin. Folks, that is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcast every day at the market close. You can sign up @vraletter.com click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.