In today's episode, Tyler breaks down today's rollercoaster stock market action. Despite the mixed action from our major indexes, we are seeing massive bullish signals under the hood of this market. Plus, there is potential market-moving news for Bitcoin as Trump prepares to speak at the 2024 Bitcoin Conference. Tune into today's podcast to learn more!

Dont look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for Todays VRA investing podcast. Hope you all had a great day out there today. I gotta say, it is good to be back here with you today. If you noticed earlier this week, we haven’t had a podcast yet this week as Kip and I just got back from a few days of investment meetings with lost soldier oil and gas up in Rhode island. It was a beautiful trip, but after a few flight cancellations, reroutings delays on both ends of the trip, we were both back in Texas as of late last night. And to start off on a little bit of a side note here, it is so interesting to see what has happened with transportation in just the last three and a half years.

We’ve always had to deal with cancellations and delays, but it doesn’t seem like I’ve taken a trip in the last two years that didn’t experience at least one delay, one cancellation of some kind on the part of the airline. And now, you know, with the issues going around with crowdstrike last week, that continued into this week as well. In the system, one of my flights was canceled, so I had to rebook one for the next morning. Of course, the airlines were very little help on that, but their system didn’t show because I missed that flight. Didn’t show that or didn’t think that I had made it to Providence, Rhode island. So despite standing in front of the clerk there at the airport, who was very nice, by the way, and was, hey, I can clearly tell that you’re here, but the system won’t let me change. It. Just, you know, little bizarre, quirky things like that.

[00:01:59]:
At the end of the day, it’s good to be back. But it does seem like the incompetence at every level, really, under the Biden administration just seems to increase. And another reason here, why we must elect Donald J. Trump here again in November. But I won’t get too much into politics today. I did that on Fridays. Thank you for everyone’s feedback on that podcast as well. It was really thoughtful, really, thank you.

It was some really good feedback there on that podcast. And as always, we know we’ve got an amazing audience here. So thank you all for being here with us day after day. This is absolutely what we love doing. Wouldn’t want to be anywhere else than here with you talking about the market action and to help investors like yourselves right out to continue to make money in this market when there’s so much fear, so much negativity out there, so much pessimism overall in the world. And to go back to one of my themes from Friday and from Trump’s RNC speech last week as well, we do remain optimistic of the future here in America. You’ve heard us talk about it time after time that we are in the midst of an innovation revolution that is going to turn into massive growth, likely like we’ve never seen before. Not only the innovation revolution, but from the AI standpoint as well.

And what we need now, deregulation from our government. We need our government to get out of our way. At the end of the day, let the american people do what they do best, innovate, find problems to solutions, and again, just get out of the way. All we want you to do is to protect our rights at the end of the day, the rights that are given to us by the Constitution to uphold those and to honor their, their, what they were sworn in as right to uphold the values of the Constitution. Anyway. All right, I’m going to get on to another topic here because it was a roller coaster of a day in the markets today, and I want to spend a lot of time on that today. It is good to be back here. One more quick heads up.

[00:04:17]:
Kip will be on the root reaction tonight with Wayne island root, that’s on real America’s voice tonight at 10:00 p.m. eastern time. So hope that you can join them tonight. As always, Wayne does the best interviews. He really does. I know a lot of you here today are with us because of Wayne Allyn Root and just the tremendous impact that he’s had as well. So we’ll have it up on our channels if you can’t join them tonight as soon as it’s available. So stay tuned.

We’ll have it up on our website, on our rumble channel and shared on social media as well as for our markets today. Again, roller coaster kind of action. Saw a lot of red on the screen early in the session today. Looked like it was going to be a continuation of the move lower that we’ve seen recently. But we’re also starting to see the signs here of capitulation, signs that we need to begin buying the dip here and beginning re adding to our positions as we’ve gotten out of the extreme overbought readings that we’re at. Just a couple of weeks ago, we started to do so as well today here at the VRA. So if you want to find out more about that and you’re not currently a member, you can join us right now for our 14 day free trial. Check it out@vraletter.com.

but what started out as a lot of red on the screen early in the session led to a big, really a strong move higher. Just before midday today, we saw the semis go positive. Our major indexes were higher across the board, and ultimately we did finish mixed on the day to day for our major indexes. But the key point here to remember is what we’re seeing under the surface of this market. We are currently experiencing a breadth expansion of this market that’s absolutely destroying the narrative that has been repeated so many times over the last couple of years that it’s only seven stocks taking this market higher. Well, that can no longer be said here, and I’ll point out some reasons why throughout the podcast today. So stay tuned. And while we have had a sharp move lower from the mega cap names and from our major indexes as well from the July 10 highs, we continue to look at this as healthy bull market action.

[00:06:42]:
And the kind of bull market that dips, buying the dip continues to be the smart money move. Now, at the end of the day, we all know here that trees don’t grow to the sky overnight, and the same applies to our markets. And so while these kinds of moves, like we’ve experienced over the last 15 days, or roughly twelve trading sessions, eleven trading sessions or so, it doesn’t feel great, right? But they are necessary as part of healthy bull market action, and that’s for a few reasons. First off, we look at this as the pause that refreshes our market. As I mentioned a minute ago, we were at extreme overbought readings on all of our favorite sectors. We’re still there on major indexes like the small caps. But what these pauses do is allow us to get out of those overbought readings, which we’ve now done for tech and the semis. We’re now quickly approaching oversold levels here.

And again, trees don’t grow to the sky overnight. These are dips that need to be bought. And again, the pause that refreshes. Second here, moves like this shake out the weak hands, the emotional money out there that will ultimately be forced back into this market at higher prices, which does add fuel to the fire going forward. Already we’ve seen this in our sentiment indicators showing up. AAII came out today, still leaning bullish here, but an over 8% drop in bulls week over week. And now the fear and greed index today is back into fear mode, coming in at a 39 so quickly approaching extreme fear here again, just two weeks away from this market peak that we’ve seen most recently. So as contrarians, this is what we love to see.

We’re all again back to the breadth expansion for one third and final point here that I will get to with our major indexes. But we’re seeing great internals here. So even if the magnificent seven are pulling back right now, the internals have been positive. The equal weight s and P 500 actually finished higher on the day today. I’ll cover that more in a second. But those are signs there that this market continues to expand. Now, we’re coming to the end of the week here. All eyes are on tomorrow’s latest look at inflation data.

[00:09:14]:
We’ve got PCE data coming back tomorrow. We would not be surprised here at all to see another good inflation number tomorrow, like we’ve seen from CPI and PPI recently showing signs of disinflation. But as we talk about here often, you know, there’s so much manipulation going on with statistics in general. You know, you’ve probably, we have the GDP first look at GDP from Q two this morning as well, coming in at 2.8%, coming in above consensus of 1.9%. You know, a few worrying narratives were in there and likely would be revised lower in the future. Although that wouldn’t concern us here. We’re nowhere near, you know, negative growth here, as they like to say now. But again, with this level of manipulation, we don’t put too much stock in any one month’s reporting.

What we want to see from tomorrow’s number is just a continued trend of disinflationary readings. We’ve seen it again in the last few inflation data points, and we do expect that to continue, especially over the medium to long term as well. And just like trees don’t grow to the skyd overnight, we knew from the beginning that inflation was never going to come down in a straight line. Yields were never going to go down in a straight line. But again, what we want to see is the trend where we’re seeing in inflation and in yields that we’ve seen for some time, which is lower highs and lower lows. Yields were down on the day, getting close to disinverting on the yield curves here. Ten year down seven tenths of 1%, still above the recent lows at a 4.25. But stay tuned here.

We’ll be reporting on the economic data here tomorrow on the podcast as well. That said, let’s take a look at our market action on the day to day. As I mentioned earlier, we did finish mixed on the day to day. We were led by small caps, which have had some really good outperformance as of late. And two areas. Well, okay, I’ll skip ahead a little bit here. Two areas that we look at as fantastic for this market, small caps, one leading the way. Very good.

[00:11:34]:
Russell 2000 up 1.26% on the day to 22. 22. And we got the transports leading the dow today here. Once again, we’re up big. Earlier in the session, still finished up 1.68% on the day. But the reason why I single the transports and small caps out is these are great barometers for what the US economy is doing. When the Russell 2000 is doing well, that typically means that the US economy is performing well because most of the stocks in the Russell 2000 are us based companies. And again, the transports as well means that we’re shipping more products here in this country.

We want to see both of those continue to perform well. So on that note, the DAO also finished up two tenths of 1% today at 39,935. And if you’re a Dow theory subscriber, you really like to see transports leading the way today, which again we got next up. The S and P 500 was down half a percent on the day to 5399. But as I mentioned earlier, what was so interesting about this is that the equal weight ETF for the S and B 500 managed to finish higher on the day. Today was up more earlier in the session, still finished up really just above flat on the day. But another signal here for us that we are experiencing expansion of breadth for this market, a trend that we do want to see continue. Lastly, the Nasdaq, down nine tenths of 1% on the day to 17,181.

And I have to point out semis did lead lower today, tagging their downtrend line here, which we would look at as a support level right in that range. Now down 1.83% on the day though. And we do want to see the semis go back to their leadership role. We are quickly approaching extreme oversold levels there as well. That is another dip we’d be looking to buy. So again, it has been a quick, painful pullback here, but it is one that we will use to continue to buy the dip. We’ve, our tune has remained unchanged going back to October of 2022 that buying the dip is the smart money move and that remains the case today. Keep in mind here as well, I was talking about shaking out the weak hands earlier and that they’ll be forced to buy in at higher prices.

[00:14:05]:
One theme we’ve had here for some time is that we’ve seen record levels of money or cash in money market accounts. So there’s plenty of money on the sidelines right now. That number has come down a little bit, but that money has been waiting to buy a pullback. We think that that adds more to the support levels of this market and will continue to add fuel to the fire as we move forward in this new bull market. We’re not even through year two here yet, so as we see, this is a market that is looking for a bottom. Again, we’re at support levels here and we want to see the semis get back to leadership here to really confirm that for us. And the way that this bull market has been acting, that could be tomorrow. It happens very quickly.

These pullbacks have been short and sweet since October of 2022. Next up, looking at our internals on the day to day, this is a major reason that we remain so bullish here, even with our major indexes finishing mixed on the day with Nasdaq semis and the S and P 500 leading lower today. As we dive into these internals, you’ll notice that here we finish higher across the board. Advancing stocks beating out declining stocks. Just a few issues shy of two to one. Positive on the NYSE. Also positive on the Nasdaq as well. 52 week highs and lows coming in strong even though we’ve had this pullback.

Just 29 stocks hit 52 week lows today in the, in the NYSE to 178, hitting 52 week highs. We also saw the Nasdaq coming in just about right at two to one positive on the day as well. Lastly here, volume. Not quite the two to one beats we’ve seen everywhere else, but positive for both the NYSE and the Nasdaq. So good readings on a mixed day like today. Very good. Very good internals. Next up, looking at our sectors on the day today, we finished with just four out of our eleven sectors higher on the day.

[00:16:13]:
We did have more higher earlier in the session, but we’re led today by energy, followed by industrials and then financials, which I want to pause on here because this is one area that continues to give us confidence in this bull market. Now, if you’ve been with us for a while, you know that we really don’t have any love for the big banks. We don’t typically take positions in the big banks. That being said, you do want to see them participating as part of healthy bull market action. If we were about to see a recession, if we were about to see a bear market. The warning signs typically show up early in the financials, and more specifically, they show up in the regional banks. So the financials finish higher on the day, and the regional banks led, hitting another 52 week high today, finishing up half, sorry, finishing up two and a half percent on the day. Again, that’s a 52 week high.

Now, we are at extreme overbought levels for the financials and for the regional banks. So a little bit of a pause here wouldn’t be too worrisome for us here. Wouldn’t be a surprise. But we want to see if that’s the case, then we want to see tech retaking the mantle as the market leader here, then our laggards. On the day to day, we were led lower by communication services, which is roughly a proxy for tech. After that, it was tech and then utilities and healthcare. Lower on the day today. Finally, for today, our VRA commodity watch.

Let me get a quick refresh of my screens here. There we go. All right, a little bit of red on the screen here. Gold now down 2.16% on the day today at $2,363 an ounce. Silver down pretty big on the day, four and a half percent to $27.98 cents an ounce. Copper higher on the day, up two tenths of 1% to $4.11 a pound. And oil now up 1% on the day. Still below $80 a barrel at $78.35 a barrel.

[00:18:28]:
Finally here for today, covering a couple of cryptocurrencies, we usually just focus on bitcoin. Bitcoin was lower on the day, down three tenths of 1% to 65,442. A group here that we do remain extremely bullish on. And while we don’t have a position in Ethereum, I’ll point out, since we haven’t had a podcast here in the last few days, that we’re seeing a bit of a buy the rumor, sell the news event happening here. I think Ethereum ETF’s began trading on Tuesday and since then have sold off, adding to those losses today now down over 5% for Ethereum. And as you know, have you been with us here for a while? We’re big fans of bitcoin here. And overall, we look at these developments happening in crypto ETF’s as bullish for cryptocurrencies as a whole. But just like with most new innovations and most, if it’s a new sector, new types of technologies, it typically pays to buy the leadership, right? And that has been bitcoin and Ethereum and really mostly bitcoin.

Typically, again, it pays early on to own the market leader, to own the largest, and there is no doubt in this case that that is bitcoin. The bitcoin conference is taking place right now, which has the potential to see some really big news for bitcoin in particular, as Trump, it’s been rumored that he will announce a strategic reserve of bitcoin as well. Now, what do you think that that would do to the price of bitcoin? Be incredibly bullish, right? So that’s not to say that Ethereum doesn’t have potential here. We think, again that getting these ETF’s launched is part of healthy action in this maturing sector, this new area of investment vehicles. And that doesn’t mean there won’t be other great cryptocurrencies and crypto based products. Right? We’ve talked a lot about the tokenization of assets and what that can mean for the potential for all kinds of different areas, whether that’s could be luxury goods, it could be, you know, tokenized tokenization of the real estate market, not only for commercial but for residential as well. There’s so much opportunity, opportunity there. But for right now, we continue to like the bang for your buck in bitcoin here.

And much like our markets, the dips need to continue to be bought, folks. That is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcasts every day at the market close. You can sign up at vra letter.com, click the podcast link at the top and we’d love to have you with us. Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the close.