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VRA Investing Podcast: April Front-Running is Underway. The Bull Market’s Momentum Continues – Kip Herriage – March 27, 2024

Major indexes rallied today, once again approaching All-Time-Highs. In today's episode, Kip breaks down the exciting action of today's market, and what the VRA sees going forward as we head into one of the most bullish months of t ...

Posted On March 27, 2024Episode 1352
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About This Episode

Major indexes rallied today, once again approaching All-Time-Highs. In today's episode, Kip breaks down the exciting action of today's market, and what the VRA sees going forward as we head into one of the most bullish months of the year. Get ready, this generational bull market is just getting underway.

Transcript

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today because, boom. Did we ever have a great day today. Right.

Folks, if you’ve been locked in with us, that’s been our request. That’s been our admonition, if that’s what I’m looking for. I’m a little, I’m a little all over the place, I gotta tell you the truth. Been one of those days today because so many things are happening and working right now. And yeah, it is going according to script, but the key here, folks, this is the, this is the key. It’s just starting. This is a generational bull market of size and scope. It’s going to last a long time. Won’t be straight up, but we are so far from overblock. A lot of stuff to cover today.

It’s very important and it is happening, folks. We got to all time highs today. And yes, we have 100 big, big data. Dow Jones up a huge 477 points today. Five this tomorrow when we close higher tomorrow. This is April front running. We’re closing higher tomorrow. So five, this will make five straight months of gains.

[00:01:04]:
Right. That’s number one. Again, all time highs 500. Everything else is close to it except small caps, which soared today, up more than 2% today. They’re now, what, 12% from all time highs. The market we’ve been telling you are giving us a gift with small caps. We’ll get into that. Ten year yields.

Oh, my goodness. What’s happening here with yields? All these folks say no, inflation’s back. Yields are going higher. Whoops. Uh oh. Ten year close below 4.2% today, going a lot lower because the Fed’s about to start cutting rates and the ten year is leaning the way lower. What else? Today, April front running. That is what’s happening here.

Again, we’ve been trying to alert you to this. This is powerful because when you have a market, it doesn’t matter if it’s a bull market or bear market, when you have a market that’s trending aggressively in one direction, as this market has been doing for a long time. Remember, we started calling this a bull market, a bull markets, a generational bull market 18 months ago. And I booked the big bribe. We said we were going to have a melt up bull market, right? But when you have this kind of a market that’s trending this aggressively, one thing starts to really happen. And this is an investible trend. It’s an investible trend. It’s called front running.

[00:02:14]:
Front running of everything starts to happen, especially big things, because April, the beginning of April, is a very big month. Why is that second biggest month, second best returning month of the year since 1950. That’s number one. What we also have happening now, all this money, right, is coming in beginning of month fund flows that’s starting to pile in now people are, again, smart money. That’s us. We’re front running all this. We know what the market’s about to do, so why not get in front of it? Let’s profit from everybody else as they catch up to where we are. That’s the key to being a smart money investor, anticipation and getting in front of these major moves.

Because it’s not just beginning of month money, it’s beginning of quarter money. All the retirement money, pension money, 401k money share buyback, all of this starts big time, really comes in at the beginning of a new quarter. And that’s what we are. Guess what else is about to happen. Q one, earnings. Can you believe it? We just, we’ve just been talking about fourth quarter earnings. We were just talking about that and how time flies. Now we’re getting ready for the first quarter earnings, which are going to be sensational.

[00:03:21]:
Well, for everything, right? This economy’s on fire. This economy is on fire, folks. Look, and the big bribe caught a lot of gruff for this. Put a, put a section in there. We even talked, Tyler, I talked a lot about it. Should we put this in there? It’s not going to be received. Well, that said that to Joe Biden was going to have his Bill Clinton moment. And look what’s happening from an economic point of view, again, by Bill Clinton over his eight years.

Stock market SB 500 average gains better than 26% per year. Unbelievable. I don’t, I’ve always said I don’t know that any president will repeat that, and I don’t think Biden will. But if Biden gets reelected, which is likely if Biden gets reelected, okay, I believe you’re going to see, first of all, the market’s going to melt up into November. So they’re going to, they’re going to do everything they can to goose this thing for him. They being the uniparty, that’s all we really have now, isn’t it? So the deep state wants to see him reelected, obviously. At least that’s what I believe. That doesn’t really matter.

[00:04:25]:
Bottom line is this market’s going higher. They’re going to goose that. The Fed’s already doing that the Fed gave the all clear. Remember the last meeting Jay Powell gave the all clear. We’re not worried about inflation. We’re going to let things run. Yes, we’re going to be cutting rates. He even told us what they were going to do.

So we have their playbook. So, yeah, April, front running is happening. A lot of money coming in, folks. We’re jumping in front of that miners today. We’ve been pounding the table on the miners. I’m going to talk about each of these topics a little bit today. GDX, the miner ETf up today, 3.8%. Now, the volume was only 26 million shares for GDX.

If you follow my work closely, you know, I watch two things I like with the miners. I want to see the miners outperforming gold. That’s been happening now for the last three, four weeks, and it’s been happening almost every day. That, over my career, is one of the biggest buy, if not the biggest buy, signal from a short term timing point of view in the miners that this, again, in my 30 year career, that’s the key. That’s what you look for. And we’ve got that big 3.8% today again in the NGDX. So I think, you know, what we’re going to find is these miners are really about to take off now, and I’ll cover that more in a moment as well. And then small as caps again, up 2.1% today.

[00:05:41]:
Been patting the table in small caps. It’s the cheapest group out there. Market’s given us a gift. Tyler just pointed this out to me, too. I mean, again, this is so textbook. You couldn’t ask for a better setup. In addition to all these gurus that continue to say the market’s overheated, they’re trying to pick tops. I mean, my God, people, what are you doing? What are you doing? Does credibility not matter to you? Because this market’s clearly going much, much higher.

The put call ratio today. Check this out. Tyler just pointed this out. Was over one all day today. I mean, a lot of people are buying puts. Why in God’s name would you be buying puts here? Thank you for doing it, but that’s a great contrarian setup for us. I don’t know why you’re doing it. Maybe it’s a hedge, you know, who knows what’s going on? Again, so many people think the market’s gone too far too fast.

It just hasn’t. It’s just starting. And again, q one, earnings are going to be fantastic. So let’s get right to it. First market, Dow Jones today up 477 points of 1.2%. Today wasn’t our leader, though, was it? No, our leader was small caps. You could roast 2000 up 2.1%, svf 100 up nine tenths, 1%. Interesting, too.

[00:06:50]:
Nasdaq and the semis were down kind of all day, really. They started pretty strong this morning, and then, boom, semis went negative, although Sox was up all day. It’s really kind of an odd. I don’t understand that exactly. I know Nvidia was down today, and that has to play the role. Again, these one offs happen like this. Nvidia today, for example, video today was, I mean, another great setup, folks. Nvidia today down $22.

That down 2.4%, folks. Why does that matter? Nvidia is a market leader. They’ve been a market leader, have they not? So the fact that the market rallies like this in the face of weakness, that kind of weakness from the market leader, I mean, it’s telling you we don’t care. The market’s giving Nvidia the big side eye. You go down all you want to, we’re going to keep going up. So anyway, just, just, again, it really is a perfect setup. Nasdaq rallied, still, actually finished up a half percent today. And then the semis even rallied today, and semi is finishing up one 10th of 1%.

But Soxl, which we own, of course, the aggressive three time leverage semi ETF, which we just crushed it in, finished up 3.3% today. There’s something going on there probably has to do with Nvidia, the different components of soccer versus semi ETF, SmH, that’s a little bit in the weeds there, but just interesting. We don’t see that a lot. But again, I think that the tell from that is the markets did not care and Sox will still finish up 3.3% today. So again, the semis lead Nasdaq. Nasdaq leads a broad market. That’s been the playbook from the birth of quantitative easing. If you’ve been joining us here, you know we preach this, right? If the semis are going in one direction, you, I don’t mean day by day, because we’ve had this rotational theme in the market.

[00:08:39]:
It’s really prevented us from getting to extremely bold levels. It’s really adding fuel to this fire. But if you follow that playbook of the semis leading and the market following, it makes market timing, frankly, very simple. And we’re going to keep, we’re going to keep writing that playbook until it no longer works. This is the longest running repeating pattern of my career. I cannot remember any other pattern that is played out so beautifully and perfectly as the semis leading in both directions, because that is working. And frankly, I don’t hear many people talking about it, which blows me away. But again, you got to understand, I watch very little tv.

We’re not into groupthink here. And the more I watch, and I hate to say it, I mean, there’s a lot of stupid people on tv, okay? But they’re probably not stupid people in real life, but they’re stupid when it comes to decision making because they, they bought into groupthink. You cannot beat the markets if you are into buying into groupthink, which is why we don’t pay attention to it. That’s the best way. If you watch tv all day long, financial tv all day long, I’m gonna tell you, you cannot beat the markets because it’s impossible not to be impacted by what these fools are saying on television, right? It starts telling you, you hear over and over the same message over and over again and it starts to weigh on you. And it works both ways, by the way, there’ll be a time when everybody and their mother is bullish, and that’s when we’ll be taking some profits and we know what to look for. By the way, you know, again, the percentage stocks above the 52 hundred day, when those reach over 90%, we are going to be lightening up. That’s just what we’re going to do.

[00:10:15]:
I’ve just seen this too many times. We’re not going to be sucked into the mania in either direction. And also, the other thing that we look at, of course, our VRA investing system and our VR eight momentum oscillators, and because they are just beautiful market timing tools. And, folks, I have to run the screens again after the close tonight, but we’re not, we’re not anywhere near extreme revolt levels. Again, this rotational theme has been textbook to extending the move higher in this bull market. And I think what the market realizes is that this is just beginning. And I hate to be a broken record because this is what we’ve been saying pretty much every day now for 18 months. But this is what we should get accustomed to.

This is the time to stay locked in. It’s a time to make generational wealth, and we want to make sure we’re in the right sectors. Don’t get complacent, don’t get cocky. I said it often, and I’m going to say it again, because in case somebody thinks I’m bragging, I am not. I am just telling you what’s happening versus what we’ve said and what is actually happening. I know this to be true. If you’re not already humble, the markets will make you humble. Okay? This is not bragging.

[00:11:29]:
This is us putting in the hard work and then celebrating our victories. There’s nothing wrong with that. But the key is you got to stay locked in, stay humble, and keep doing the work. Right. And don’t be afraid to make a big call, like when we go bearish, okay? When we start taking profits, there will be people very pissed off at us. I can promise you this. I can already see emails coming in. I can see the social media backlash.

When you were saying generational bull market, would you change your tune? Well, when all the bears capitulated and turned into bulls, guess what? That’s a sell signal. So, look, that’ll be a great opportunity to raise some cash. I really would, honestly, because I’m starting to get that feel, that now we’re at that real momentum stage, which is fantastic, because this is when, you know, you go parabolic, and that’s happening, okay? That’s what’s happening. But that stage is followed by a sell off. That phase is followed by a shakeout because it ain’t this easy. It really isn’t this easy. Okay? But that’s why the shakeouts happen, because it rings out the excess, and it teaches people who’ve gotten too cocky to learn their lesson and get back in their place. Mister market does not like to be effed with, I can promise you that.

[00:12:44]:
And if you get too arrogant, too cocky, people start talking about how easy this is. That’s idiotville. That’s when you know you’re in trouble. We know the science to look for. Stay with us. Keep listening. We’ll let you know when we’re seeing it. It’s not now, by the way, this, especially sector wise, small caps miners.

Right? Wow. I mean, we’ve already made a lot of money in the semis. They took a little bit of a breeze. Not much of one. A little bit. But this is now when the market really begins to spread. That’s what’s happening. It’s broadening out.

This is when the fun part starts, really for everybody and good for us, right? Good. Good. Don’t we deserve this, folks? Don’t we deserve this? We had three bear markets in five years where the average stock lost 40% to 60% of its value each time. Unprecedented, absolutely brutal. Never happened before in history. Don’t think that ever will happen again and again. No one’s talking about that. But it set us up for where we are now because it got people so incredibly bearish and so just shell shocked, you know, up down, up down, up down.

[00:13:45]:
I don’t know what to make of this. I’m just going to get out and guess what? They did. And they have money market accounts. $6.2 trillion still sitting in money market accounts. That’s an all time high. Well, guess what’s going to happen now. That’s fuel for the fire. That’s money coming off the sidelines.

And money now is getting in the markets, folks. What do you think is going to happen? We have three weekend coming up, right? What do you think is going to happen here at the end of this week, which, of course is the end of the month, right in the quarter, people go home, open up their portfolio and go, what are we doing in 70% cash? Why are we in bonds? Why are we sitting in money market accounts? Yeah, this sure seemed attractive, making four to 5%. For a while, we felt like we were rock stars. And now we feel like we have dunce caps on. So all this money is going to start flooding in. This is when parabolic moves happen. So let’s stay locked in, folks. That’s really the key here.

I do want to cover a couple things again. We always have a lot of new listeners join us. Our podcast is really growing. We appreciate it more than you know. Love your feedback. Keep that coming and tell your friends about it. Look, again, we want to make this party as big as possible. Right? Keep referring people to our podcast.

[00:15:00]:
We have a great community here at the VRA. We want to keep growing that and we appreciate that. Again, please keep your feedback coming. We always appreciate it greatly. It means more to us than, you know, on both sides. Criticize us when we need to hear it. And yeah, every now and then, if we’re all making money together, you know what? It’s fun to. It’s fun to celebrate that, too.

Again, there’s nothing wrong with that. Tyler covered it yesterday. I mean, Tyler went over in detail the April front running that we saw coming. He nailed it, as he tends to do. And again, that’s what’s happening here. So again, remember, that’s just starting, right? We’re not even April yet. So the first, the first week of April could be. Could be idiot, though.

It could be just crazy, though, when all these folks open up their portfolios over the weekend and start making what happens they make the switch over the weekend. So they start converting, you know, their 401 ks, iras from cash money markets into equities and then mutual funds and et cetera. And ETF’s have to purchase on Monday. They don’t have a choice. They can only keep a certain amount of cash. So that money’s got to come into stocks and it’s going to be monster levels of investor money piling into equities here. And so again, next week should be a lot of fun. We’ll let you know when we reach those levels that concern us.

[00:16:13]:
But again, we’re not really close to that at all yet. So we got a ways to go. This will make five straight months we’ve been up that. You got to go back to World War two. Post World War two, it’s been now since 1950 that we’ve had a market this strong five straight months. And that bodes very, very well for the rest of the year. It’s happened eleven times and in all eleven times the market’s been higher. For the rest of the year, there’s not been a single instance where the markets finished lower.

From that point, over the rest of the year, the average return the last nine months has been 12%. So I think it’s going to be better than that. But again, that’s not, that’s actually not too bad for nine months, is it? All right, I want to cover some of the things I shared this morning. Let’s just get right to the meat here. All right. Semis have been leading, we think they’re going to keep leading. Precious metals and miners now are getting some wind at their sales. Right.

[00:17:06]:
I just, I just put this out. Let me, let me just read this from a tweet. It’s easier to do that than try to remember. Exactly. So I want to get it right from. Again, the miners stay up three point eight, three point nine percent. One second here. So since February 28 of this year, the miners are up 21%.

I think that would surprise a lot of people. GDX is up 21% since the end of February, folks. That’s a month in a month. Right. And, but what people need to know is that, again, the ten year today, all these signals, right. We know the Fed’s going to start cutting. Guess what GDX has done over the last three rate cutting cycles. Put up average gains of 100.

It’s either 170 or 180%. I think it’s 180%. I’ve been using 170. But I went back and saw my tweet from about a month ago on this, it was 180. So regardless, GDX over the last three rate cutting cycles has been up an average of 170% to 180%. Now we’re only up 21%. We haven’t started cutting rates yet, so that has, that calculation hasn’t even started yet. I remember last week we also had a big outside day.

[00:18:24]:
We talked about a bullish engulfing pattern that was the classic buy signal. And we’re just, the miners are about to soar. The miners are bad. We’re about to make, I believe, and we’re on record saying this. I believe this is the bull market of bull markets for precious metals and miners. Will it keep up with bitcoin? No, it will not. That’s just not going to happen. Bitcoin is going a lot higher.

I’ll cover that more in a moment as well. But it doesn’t mean we shouldn’t have a participation in it. Shouldn’t have ownership of, you know, you never want to put all your eggs in one basket. That’s an old cliche, of course. But, you know, we like about 10% positions in both gold and in bitcoin. Okay, that’s, I might be a little more aggressive than that. In fact, I am. I’m very heavy in bitcoin right now, but I’m also very, very heavy.

I have more gold and miners in gold combined. I have far more invested in that than I do in bitcoin, from a personal investment point of view. But again, I’ve always been a gunslinger. I believe I learned how to invest, really, by playing blackjack and by being an investor and a sports bettor, is what I’m trying to say. I learned risk analysis and investing discipline from gambling and sports betting, which I guess are exactly the same, aren’t they? And so that taught me how to analyze risk and how to make decisions. And one of the things you learn in blackjack is when you’re winning, you press your bet, right. It’s called pyramiding. A lot of namesport.

[00:19:58]:
That’s what I learned, and that’s the approach that I’ve always used in investing when something’s working. And again, in the market, we call it averaging up. You always want to average up instead of average down. That’s the smart money play. That’s what I like to do when something is hot. Right now, what’s hot? Bitcoin been averaging up at the wazoo in bitcoin. The miners now averaging up is what I’ve been doing aggressively. So, by the way, I’ve been buying you know what? Out of Tesla, I’ve been telling you this, okay? I think the move that’s going to happen in Tesla is going to be insane over the next one.

3510 years. And I don’t care. I do not. Tesla is going to report sales next week. I don’t care what those are. That’s the past, right? I care what Tesla is about to do. Guess what they’re about to do. Tesla, they own.

They own this entirety of this base. Of coUrse. They own ev’s. They. They own. I don’t have my notes in front of me, but I just wrote this UP, what, yesterday. They own. I’m kind of changing topics here.

[00:21:03]:
They own. Now I’ve completely lost my train of thought, okay? Tesla owns four different categories, autonomous driving. Now, FSD is now here. It’s not waiting. It’s here. And that is going to be massive for Tesla. Robo taxis, folks. They’re going to be robotaxis.

Tesla’s robotaxis. And they’re going to. Other companies will sign, are in the process of. I just happen to know this. It’s not been announced yet, frankly. But this is all the talk. Car manufacturers and independent companies, right. Something.

Have nothing to do in this space. Maybe like an Uber, like a Lyft. They’re in negotiations now. I think these announcements are coming pretty soon where they’re going to be doing deals to have Tesla’s technology, to have Tesla’s vehicles. These cars are called robo taxis. They will. They have no steering wheels. They have no drivers, obviously.

[00:21:59]:
Okay? And they’ll have all kind of different sizes, just like an Uber does. And they’ll be everywhere. They’ll be everywhere that you’ll have in your neighborhood, regardless of where you live, as long as you’re not, you know, in a. In a. In a. In a, you know, an area where there’s almost no people living, they’re going to have these vehicles everywhere. So car ownership is kind of going to become a thing of the past. It’s going to be so cheap to go anywhere you want to.

And you won’t have to wait. You don’t have to wait that, what, 510, 15 minutes takes? Get an Uber. You’re just going to go, I want my. I want. You’ll go to your app. I want. I need a car. And within about a minute, you’re going to have a robo taxi sitting outside your house ready to take you wherever you need to go.

And so families will keep. Most families will keep one car. Okay? I mean, look, I don’t my family knows me, and if you know me, you know my deal with vehicles. Like, I have a very hard time letting go of my vehicles. I fall in love with my vehicles. We have a 66 Mustang convertible that I’ll never let go of. All right? And it’s, it’s, it’s, we souped it up. It’s got Ford racing engine, suspension, all that.

[00:23:07]:
Obviously, that’s not going anywhere. I have a 1985 Hummer that I’m now getting retrofitted, getting that redone so it looks brand new. Matter of fact, if the guys had it now for a couple months, it’s a big project, but, so I’m going to keep at least those. I’m sure my wife’s going to keep her car, but most people, most families will have one car because robotaxis will be everywhere. Again, Tesla owns this space, so that doesn’t even take into account the fact that Tesla owns the battery space. Battery storage is about to get so much better than it already is, and it’s gotten pretty good. Right? But battery storage is about to, is about to be transformational. And Tesla owns all of this, and the markets are not, they’re just not factoring this in.

So again, I hope Tesla gets cheaper. I want to see the stock go down more. I want to keep buying it every possible week or month that I can, that I’ve got extra money, or maybe I’m taking profits in something else. This topped Out. I want to buy more TESLA. I’m buying more TESLA. I’m buying more bitcoin. I’m loading up on the miners.

[00:24:12]:
Of course, obviously, we’ve been heavy in the semis, heavy in the broad market. So, you know, you got to pick your spots. We can’t buy everything. So you want to be at the key point I’m trying to make here. You want to be in the hot sectors, and that’s what we’re going to continue to do, is try to not try to, but find the hottest sectors by fund flows. Obviously, price action tends to give that away. But, but trend analysis, that’s what the vera investing system is pretty good at. That’s what we’re going to keep doing here.

So let’s STAy locked in together, folks. TOdd and I’ll be here with you everyday doing it. And, and if you’re not a member of the VRA letter with us, come join our community. Two free weeks still in place. Vrainsider.com again. Vrainsider.com, comma. Come check it out. And I think maybe you’ll stay with us.

A lot of people have and continue doing. We always appreciate that. What else here? Okay, let’s just skip right to this. This morning I wrote this up, a pretty lengthy analysis of bitcoin because the next acceleration cycle is very close to happening. Now you can say, what are you talking about? Bitcoin just more than doubled in no time at all. What do you mean the next one? It’s already happening. Well, it’s true, but we just had all time highs at 73 seven. We had a shakeout to 60,600.

[00:25:30]:
That happened pretty quick. This is a pretty having good commonality. It’s a tradition essentially of every having that. Bitcoin has these shakeouts. Well, we just had it. Bitcoin fell to 60,600 back to 69,000. Now it’s 71,300 this morning. The volatility is going to remain because the futures markets are now dominating.

You can talk about ETF fund flows into bitcoin all you want to. Futures trading, that’s the long, that’s what the long term driver is going to continue to be as a supply, the best supply to be in store on the planet. But futures market trading has gotten so massive now in bitcoin. That’s what’s driving this intraday volatility, everybody, because it’s such a great trading vehicle. People are, guess what? They’re trading it. And that’s fantastic. Right? But what’s also happening is as we get ready for the next halving, which is on April 19, folks, that’s what is 21 days away. We’re almost there.

We’ve been talking ad nauseam about the moves that have taken place coming out of bitcoin halvings. Just a quick refresher. 2012 after the halving in one year, bitcoin up 79 times, 7900% your money. After the 2016 having over the next 18 months, bitcoin up 2900 percent, made 29 times your money. After the 2020 having, bitcoin rose 700% in just under 18 months. So that’s well known. Everyone knows that’s when the big moves have happened in bitcoin. And now I’m seeing a lot of downers.

[00:26:54]:
I’m seeing this all over. Well, everybody’s talking about these. The move after the having. That means it’s not going to happen. I want to hear more of that. I want to hear more people saying, no, I want to be short bitcoin because that’s what’s happening. I wrote this up this morning. This is pretty massive story that Tyler and I are talking about here at the VRA.

And Josh, of course, newest addition to our team. Just been fantastic for us. A lot of you got an unjust Foley, just a great guy. We’re really glad to have him on board here. We’re going to continue to grow because we are growing and we’re adding a lot of people and we want to make sure we take care of everybody and we pride ourselves on not good, but great customer service. So if you know somebody that’s looking to join a fast growing company that loves the markets like we do, and that’s a team player and that knows I’m the top dog, and they just got. They just have to let me be your mentor. If someone can have that mindset and they’re really good team player and they work their ass off like we do, hey, reach out to us, let us know we’re growing.

[00:27:56]:
And it’s about. We’ll have some news on this pretty soon. I think the growth rate is about to go parabolic for us as well. But here’s the story. These traders have gotten incredibly short. Bitcoin. Total short interest in this bitcoin space now is $11 billion. Can you believe this? These traders people are, these.

These supposedly professional investors are betting against bitcoin before having 80% of short bets. Now against microstrategy and Coinbase global because microstrategy is. I just wrote it up this morning. Michael Saylor’s company, just an incredible setup he’s got going. He owns 1% of all bitcoin. Great video I shared this morning. If you’re with us here as a very member, you’re going to want to watch this video over the weekend. It’s long.

It’s an hour and a half long. It’s the debate between Michael Saylor, again, macrostrategy founder, chairman, and. No, I’m sorry, the debates between Eric Voorhees, who is a bitcoin insider, and Peter Schiff, who spoke at one of my w, my events back in 2009. Peter Schiff’s a big gold bug. Hey, I love gold, too. But he hates, as you probably know, he hates bitcoin. Oh, my God. He’s just been talking about everyone’s going to wind up bankrupt.

[00:29:11]:
You’re going to lose all your money. It’s going to zero. And he’s still saying it. What’s funny is they also have a father son set up. His son is a big bitcoin guy. And so I think he just embarrassed his dad. I don’t know how his dad. I don’t know why his dad does it.

I mean, I do not know how. I don’t. One of the things that’s always fascinating me about investing is that people are more these so called professionals like Schiff. And I know Peter a bit. They’re so committed to being right that they’ll lose their shirt in investing and credibility for forever because they cannot change their mind. That’s the definition of insanity. Pure definition. Look it up.

Peter Schiff is in the dictionary under the definition of insanity. You see a picture of Peter Schiff. Because you cannot be that wrong. Why would you want to be? That’s a great thing, by the way, about being a trend follower, which we are. It means you’re never on the wrong side of major moves. Why would you want to be right in a bull market or bear market? We just want to. That’s our job, right? Make money regardless of the market. That’s why you don’t want to be a perma bull or a perma bear.

[00:30:16]:
Either one. And trend following removes that is even a possibility. But anyway, back to bitcoin. All this money coming in, record levels of short selling in this space, I think I find that amazing and I love it. That means they’re going to get squeezed. That means you’re going to get squeezed, and the price is going to go even more parabolic. All right, one other thing, and again, I’m new to this topic a little bit. By the way, there’s now 72,000 bitcoin sold short.

That’s a record 72,000 bitcoin sold short. Paper losses are already more than $6 billion, and yet they’re still continue to double down. They’re betting on a crypto collapse that ain’t gonna happen. Also, this is a new topic. It’s something we’re gonna be talking about a lot more. So stay with me here. I’ll cover it quickly. It’s called the liquid inventory ratio.

All right. Liquid inventory ratio. Sell side liquidity is so low. Right. It’s, right now is like historically low levels compared to demand. And the way you calculate it, quickly, liquid inventory ratio is calculated by dividing the total sell side inventory by the 30 day bitcoin balance. Change of accumulation addresses. And if that sounds complicated, it’s because it is.

[00:31:33]:
But thankfully, we have charts and methodology that make that very clear so we don’t have to do the math. And I shared a chart with our folks this morning in our very letter, where you see it right in front of you. Right. Bitcoin soaring and availability supply is at almost record lows. There’s just nothing in inventory. This is when parabolic moves happen. Scarcity value on top of scarcity value combined with record levels of short interest are going to combine for a squeeze that’s going to be, I think, a little crazy. Again, I’ve used that.

My views on change. I think bitcoins can hit 100,000 either just before or just after the having. Again, April 19, about maybe April 20, 420. How perfect would that be? And then with, I think, 100,000 into out of the halving, I’d say within 30. Look, if I had to put a number on it, within 30 days of the having, okay, bitcoin will be over 100,000. And then I think it’s got potential to be over 250,000 by the end of the year. I wouldn’t be surprised. Said it before, I said, again, not a prediction.

But it’s also not exaggeration. I would not be surprised if bitcoin goes from 100,000 to 200,000 within 30 days once it passes 100,000, because that’s how tiny the market cap is, folks. The market cap of bitcoin now is only 1.3 trillion. It’s smaller than Microsoft, Apple, Nvidia, Amazon, Meta. I mean, it’s smaller than companies. And bitcoin is not a company. It’s a new asset class. The SEC has admitted that they’ve now given it their blessing.

[00:33:08]:
And it’s really, more importantly, the new de facto global currency that’s not fiat can’t be printed. Only 21 million ever be in existence again. Tyler reminds us that only 19 million have already been printed. There’s only going to be 21 million printed. And the having makes it twice as expensive every time. That just adds to the scarcity value, and it just makes the supply demand story that much better. So that’s our position. We’re unequivocal.

We’ve been bulls for a long time. We’ve done very well in bitcoin. Knocking on wood, not bragging, investing gods. But that is the reality of it. And it’s just the most amazing investment story of my time, probably of anyone’s time. And it’s just getting started. I just want to make one last point. People used to laugh at me when I would say that bitcoin will still be a buy when it hits a million.

[00:34:04]:
They’re not laughing anymore. They’re kind of quiet when I say it now because they realized that they got the story wrong. I’ll repeat it. Bitcoin will still be a strong buy when it hits 1 million. You’re going to see insane moves in bitcoin, folks. Insane moves. And of course, the other, I know a lot of people are playing the other altcoins, if you will, some of the crap coins. That’s not what we’re doing here.

We’re all about the king of the hill. We’re all about bitcoin. We keep it very simple. I’m a simple Texas guy. I keep it simple. I like bitcoin. I do like some of the miners. We own one of the miners, but they call themselves the Goldman Sachs of the crypto space.

They have a lot of other Goldman Sachs partners in this thing and they’re building it. I’m talking about Galaxy Digital. They’re building, I think, a very smart company that’s making a lot of money. Like the last quarter report just came out this week. So much is going on. And you get a chance to write this up. We have a buy rec on Galaxy, but they, I think they make close to $300 million in net income. And yeah, they do mine, but they do invest in banking.

They have like five, six different divisions all involved in the crypto space. I think it’s a smart setup. I think at some point that stocks can get hot. And I like it better than just owning a miner for something like that. I want to own bitcoin. Right. I want the coin itself. And then I will own something smart that has the ability to be, you know, to go, it’s a $10 stock.

[00:35:28]:
Now, this thing could be $100 in a couple of years. Right? We don’t list it as a VRA ten bagger. Maybe I should. Maybe we should. But anyway, I do like the company. It’s still not listed fully in the US. It’s a canadian company. You know, it trades on the pink sheets here or the.

It’s effectively the foreign pink sheets here. Galaxy. But they’re going, they are going through the process of getting it listed here. So there you go. Um, so there, there’s, there, there’s some of the themes that we’re working on. Let’s take a look under the hood today, and we’ll wrap this, let you get about your business again. Here we go. I mean, wow.

Internals. Okay. Fan, fan. Just fantastic. Just fantastic. Internals today, 83% of volume day. NYSE 72.9% Nasdaq. Again, these are very good readings.

Check this out. NYC. Vance, decline five to one positive. Been a while, folks. Been a while. But it’s going to get higher pretty soon. We’re going to talk about seven to eight to nine to one. Upside days for advanced decline.

[00:36:29]:
That’s coming, right? That’s coming again. That’s, that’s copy action against one of the signs we’ll look for. You’ll hear us talking about it. That’s one of those signs. Nasdaq today, advanced decline three to one positive. Also, fantastic reading today. And finally, new 50 highs and lows. 418 stocks, a new 50 week high to just 90, hitting a new 52 week low.

Kind of like volume, pre thinks, pre easter volume. So otherwise, I think we’re looking at 6700 stocks at new 50 week high. That’s coming as well, by the way. Just fantastic. How about a sector watch? Well, guess what? More great news. All eleven sectors finished high on the day led to the upside by utilities. Now why would utilities be up 2.7% today? Oh, maybe they see what’s happening with bonds. They know that rate cuts are coming.

I still see a lot of people that say rates are going higher, inflation is coming back and my goodness, I just don’t know what to say anymore. I don’t. I don’t say anymore, folks. Interest rates fell for 41 years. 41 years. But we had this two year period because of massive money printing where rates spiked up. And so people now think we’ve had a rate, a change in direction rates. We have not.

[00:37:40]:
Rates are going lower. They’re going a lot lower. Gravity. Gravity is one of the biggest reasons, okay, not the fed rate cuts. It’s gravity. What do I mean by that? What would you rather get? Would you rather get a 4.2% just under that today? 4.2% yield on safety and security of a ten year us government bond. All right, the ten year treasury, would you rather get that or 0% in Japan with the japanese government? JGB, japanese government bond. What would you rather get? Duh.

Right? What’d you rather get? 4.2% ten year Treasury, US or 2.5% in a german ten year treasury? That’s the gravity. Again, it’s another supply demand equation. This is not rocket science, folks. Folks, don’t make it complicated. Gravity will continue to force rates lower. And yeah, the fed rate cuts will help. And yes, the second America is starting to fill the pinch of higher rates. They are.

That is happening. But it’s around the edges. And again, I hate to repeat it, but we’re all big boys and girls here. The second America doesn’t matter to the market has not mattered for a very long time. There’s another topic that I’m doing some research on. That’s really going to piss a lot of people off. I’m going to go and tell you now. Okay, here we go.

[00:38:57]:
Everyone’s. First of all, Joe Biden runs nothing. We know this, okay? The deep state, the planners, right. Our planners run everything. Okay? And that was the same for Trump, too. That’s why he got circled into, sucked into the whole plandemic and the poison jabs. Trump just did what he was told, okay? He’s very easily manipulated, as we’ve learned. But when it comes to immigration, Joe Biden does not believe in open borders.

Have you seen any of the videos from before? The last few years, he believed in a strong us border. This is not what he was. He’s being told to do this. Now. Why would he be told to do this? I know some people think that our open border policy is going to cause massive terrorist attacks and all. God, I hope not, and I don’t think it will. I think we have direct evidence what’s happening here. This is going to be a write up.

[00:39:46]:
I’m going to work on it this weekend. I’ve got some more work to do on it. It’s going to, like I say, it’s going to piss a lot of people off. People think I’m crazy, but when I can’t make sense of something, it drives me crazy. So I have to find reasons, right? Follow the money. This week we focused on this, on the Cathie Wood white paper, the ark white paper about the ridiculous growth that’s about to happen in the US and the global economy because of the innovation revolution taking place. You saw it, right? You read it. We focused on it.

We’re talking about GDP growing by hundreds of trillions of dollars, more over the next 20 years, 30 years, than what the estimates are because of what’s happening in the innovation revolution. Okay? All these five different areas that Kathy Wood’s team have pointed out works very well with our five big, broad megatrends, doesn’t it? What if we’re going to have that kind of growth? What are we going to need? We’re going to need more people. And we need a lot more people to do the jobs to grow the economy. First of all, we got a baby boom happening. Everybody we know is having kids. That’s got to be the case for you too, right? We got another baby boom happen in this country right now. They’re going to call the COVID generation, probably. Maybe they’ll come with a better name.

[00:40:57]:
The pandemic generation. That’s what they should be called because that’s where it’s coming from. But with all this growth, we’re going to need people to do a lot of jobs that most people don’t want to do. And we’re going to need a lot of people. Yes, foreigners. These people coming in to be trained to build robots. These, like Optimus for Tesla, another area. Have you mentioned that their AI and their robotics program, again, unbelievable stuff coming here, folks.

There are going to be millions of these robots doing jobs for us all over the country. Some of them will be building other robots, be building AI systems, all of this unbelievable innovations like Sci-Fi movie that’s happening here, folks. Space exploration. They’ll be in space. We’ve got hypersonic space exploration, travel coming up, where we’re going to be on other planets with robots building things. All of this is going to have to be constructed. The economy is going to soar. Probably a lot of these immigrants are going to be going to other countries, other planets.

[00:41:55]:
So that’s the upside to this open border policy we’ve had. That’s, there’s a lot of downside to it. Don’t give me, I get it. I get it. Get it pissed me off, too. But that’s the upside. That’s a story not being told. I want to be one of the first to tell it.

So there you go. It’s the first time I’ve said it today. That’s the upside from illegal immigration that’s happening with our open border. And you’ve got to think that our betters, right, our planners, this is what they’re doing. I believe the evidence points to the fact that it is, folks, this is a glorious time to be alive. It’s always a good time to be alive. It’s a great time to be an investor. It’s an amazing time to be an optimist.

I’m going to repeat it one more time. If you’re a pessimist right now, boy, you got to check yourself before you wreck yourself. You really got to look in the mirror and go, I got it wrong. And don’t be Peter Schiff. Don’t be Peter Schiff. That’s the point of this podcast. Okay. Yeah, we now have transcriptions for all our podcasts.

[00:42:56]:
I kind of don’t want to go back and read this one, but then again, I do. Maybe we’ll make this podcast a book, a little booklet from just this podcast today, because I think I’m going to beg, borrow and steal from this, especially with the immigration part that the foreigners, these illegal aliens could be working on other planets and helping build robots, etcetera. That’s really what they’re going to be doing. But the growth is going to be sensational and it’s just an amazing time to be an optimist. I’ve just never been more excited in my life to see what’s happening here. And who knows if it is Trump as president? You know what? What better president could you have over a really strong economy than that guy, right? So I think it’s a win win. I think it doesn’t matter who wins, folks. I think, I think our path is set and I think it’s fantastic either way.

Who would rather be? I think, you know, I’d rather be. I’d rather be Ron Desantis. That ain’t going to happen. I don’t blow. Something very odd happens. But anyway, that’s why you. I said all of that talking about the utilities being up 2.7% today, all right? And that’s why they’re going up, because utilities are the largest borrowers of money in the country. And so when they’re soaring, that means rates are going lower.

Kip Herriage [00:44:11]:
There you go. That’s my whole hypothesis for rates going lower. Real estate today up 2.4%. Again, another benefactor of lower rates. Foreshadowing discounting is happening here, folks. Utilities at one point. Again, all eleven sectors higher today. We’ll move on from that.

And our commodity watch. Again, more good news. We love the miners, love gold, love silver. It’s the everything bull market. Why wouldn’t it go up right today, gold just can’t crack 2200 an ounce and stay over it. It’s about to. Gold today, right now, 21.93 an ounce of $16. Love physical gold here.

Silver, $0.14 an ounce at 24.77. Copper today. Of love copper as well. I just can’t find. You know we got a home run with Turquoise Hill, right? Got bought out. Should have been bought up for a whole lot more. Rio Tinto stole it. So.

Kip Herriage [00:45:04]:
Been looking for another copper play. Just haven’t found it. But we got such great exposure to the, to the, to this base right now. Miners impressed mills, miners. I just, I just. I know. I know Rio and I know some other miners that are heavy in copper. But a Freeport McMurray, of course, but I just can’t find another pure copper play I really like.

That’s okay. We like the other ones. We’re in crude oil today, up nine cents a barrel at 8171. Again, we’ve been pounding the table on energy stocks. If you notice, they’ve gone parabolic. Okay. And they have reached. That’s.

This is one group. This is one group that has hit extreme overbought on steroids. We have paused our buying. We own the two time leverage, the energy ETF. We paused our buying because it’s hit extremely bought on steroids. Tyler taught me how to sell it. I wanted to sell it because if you already. System says it’s overbought.

And he reminded me that, you know what? They’re going a lot higher. And they are. They are. All this economic growth, what do you think is going to happen? The price of energy, oil and gas. Yeah. Boop. Right. A lot higher.

Kip Herriage [00:46:08]:
Of course, the battery storage advancements and technological change is going to help with all of this. We’re going to need it. We are going to need it. All right, folks, again, bitcoin. I’ll give you a lab. Already covered bitcoin. Pretty, pretty fully here. Last trade, exactly 69,000 on the day.

Again, what a phenomenal buy it here is here as well. Hey, folks, always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a good day. Even better. Night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.

Podcast Newsletter

Listen On

Time Stamps

00:00 April begins front running, anticipates major moves.
05:01 Miners outperforming gold, signal for buy.
09:21 Reject groupthink, stay independent in financial decisions.
11:54 Generational bull market, beware of sell signal.
14:00 Markets expect influx of cash, prepare now.
19:11 Invested heavily in gold
23:07 Tesla dominates markets.
25:50 Bitcoin futures trading driving intraday volatility, halving near.
27:15 New team member brings fantastic energy. We're growing.
31:33 Charts show Bitcoin scarcity, predicts record squeeze.
34:45 Galaxy Digital building smart company, making money.
39:46 Weekend work to analyze financial innovation growth.
42:56 Excited for the future, regardless of president.
43:45 Desantis, utilities, rates: strange talk about economy.

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