VRA Investing Podcast: Another Solid Jobs Report. Direct Evidence of the Roaring 2020’s – Kip Herriage

Tune into today's VRA Investing Podcast as Kip covers the strong end to the week for our markets. After a bit of a rough week for our market it was good to see tech and the semis leading the way. Kip also dives into the latest job ...

Posted On April 05, 2024Episode 1358

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About This Episode

Tune into today's VRA Investing Podcast as Kip covers the strong end to the week for our markets. After a bit of a rough week for our market it was good to see tech and the semis leading the way. Kip also dives into the latest jobs report from this morning and other economic expectations. Tune into today's podcast to see what the VRA Investing System is telling us from today's action.


Don’t look back. The market is closed. Good Friday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herridge here with the deadly bear investing podcast. Hope you had a good day. Hope your week is fantastic as well. Let’s get right to it. We’re going to cover today the jobs report again.

The economy is rock solid. We are in the roaring 2020s. We’re going to cover it as it’s Friday. So we’re going to use a little adult language here. We’re going to cover an asshole by the name of Neil Kashkari who crashed the market yesterday. Of course, we recovered most of those losses today. What a loser. This guy is in the Federal Reserve going to talk about what’s happening with the miners.

Okay, if you’ve been joining us at all, if you’re a VRA member, what have we been doing over the last month or two? We’ve been pounding the table, literally pounding the table to buy the miners and to buy precious metals, gold, all time high today, miners. I’m going to. It’s a great story. We’re kind of filling in here. Okay. And I’ll tell you a little bit more about it. Why? This is just getting started, right? That’s the key. Just getting started.

Tyler was on with Wayne roots show. He did an interview on Wednesday night on his tv radio show, and he got into how we’re preparing our folks for what’s going on because, yeah, we do have inflation. Right? Guess what? I’ll let you a little secret. It’s not a secret. Inflation is never going away because they’re never going to stop printing money. And we only have inflation because of money printing. So let’s just be real clear about that. So when we say we have disinflation, which of course we do, disinflation just means inflation is falling.

Inflation was over 9% 14 months ago. Now she’s under 3%. So clearly that is disinflation. But it doesn’t mean it’s going to go away. It’s probably going to be sticky. It’s going to be higher. And that’s why our job is to beat inflation. And Tyler talked about this, a great interview with Wayne about owning hard assets and what our approach there is.

Kip Herriage [00:02:01]:
What are hard assets? Guess what? Just the things we own. The things going up. Energy going up. Right. Energy. Oil stocks. Oil, obviously, precious metals and miners equities in general. Right.

Real estate, housing, bitcoin. Bitcoin is clearly an inflationary asset, a hard asset when it comes to beating inflation, because guess what? It’s not a fiat currency, it can’t be printed into obsolescence like the US dollar has been, as Tyler pointed out, losing 98% of its value since the dev was created in 1913. So that’s the game. You know, we can bitch and moan about it, we can complain about it, or we can put a thinking cap on and beat it. And so that’s. I know we have a very smart crowd here, but again, I’m preaching to the choir, but we always have new folks join us, want to make sure we’re on the same page. So there you go. But again, economy is in rock solid shape.

The jobs data this morning, and I know, like, every government report, which is why we barely even pay attention to these on a month to month basis, really good trends, but, yeah, they’re cooked. You know, they’re, they’re. They’re gamed, right? But we’re just going to. We go off the official data and the revisions, which, by the way, the revisions were very small this time. That has not been the case. But we got, for the march, we got 303,000 jobs created, beat estimates to 214,000. Unemployment rates stayed unchanged at 3.8%. Average hourly earnings came in at 4.1%.

So right there, if you’re going off, again, the official data, if inflation is just under 3% and earnings are growing by better than 4% a year, consumer is okay. Consumer is actually really good. And again, we started when we did the research for the big bribe. We researched that book for over a year before we finally published it, wrote it and published it. We were stunned by what we found. We wonder why we weren’t hearing any of this reported. So this is something, we said this for the first time in a podcast over a year ago, all time highs and home prices. Again, this is direct evidence that we are in the roaring 2020s.

If you’re not hearing this from other people, ask them why. Ask them why. Because we’ve caught a lot of, a lot of flack for this, because we’re just reporting facts. Ask them why they aren’t reporting these facts. I don’t know why this isn’t showing up. Because this is hard data. Home prices all time high. Net equity in homes all time high.

Consumer net worth all time high. One third of homeowners own their home outright with no mortgage. Again, these are all records. This is kind of, I think, the biggie, or at least something that should make people think. And this is, again, all fact based. We learned from the financial crisis. In the last 15 years, consumers have cut their debt to disposable income. That’s the relationship that matters.

Not total number of credit card debt. None of that matters. What matters is debt to disposable income. That’s the ratio that matters. Consumers have cut their debt by 25% disposable income in the last 15 years. We learned from the finished crisis, we learned we never want to allow ourselves to be put in that situation again where banks or other assholes could take our stuff, right? So we learned we cut our debts and never again. Corporations have done the same thing. Corporate debt also is down by about 25%.

That’s to market cap in the last 15 years. And I think this is a stunning one. Again, no one’s reporting this. Not that I’ve seen. Don’t watch a lot of tv. Maybe I missed it. Tell me if I did. Corporate debt to market cap is at 50 year lows.

All that matters for this reason. This is the balance sheet data and the economic data that you see at the beginning of economic expansions, not the end. At the beginning, when they’re just kicking off at the tail end of this. When the economy does start to slow and consumers start to lever up, use more of their start to get more debt, now they’ve got another vacation home. They’ve got to pay off their boat. They got another boat, got another house. This is where we’re going, folks. This that bull market.

This is that economy. This is the roaring 2020s. They will, we will start to lever up. Companies will, too. But right now, things are clean. Things are really clean. You know, we shouldn’t feel guilty about this being the roaring 2020s. We should embrace it.

Okay? Because we’ve talked about this for a long time. We just come out of the worst two decades plus in american history. Worst. It’s not a close second. I’m gonna go through quickly. 911. All right? Followed by the Patriot act. How about that horseshit right then? That was, of course, Iraq WMD’s, because they had to find a way to take over the Middle east.

So that would. That that lie was told, right? How it is that the George Bush, Dick Cheney, Don Rumsfeld, Karl Rove, how these guys aren’t locked up is a testament to how far we are into the Roman Empire esque kind of a period. We’ve talked about it before. Who knows? We’re definitely on the back end of the Roman Empire as a parallel. If I had to guess, I’d say we got another 30, maybe 40 years before it completely collapses. And maybe I’ll be wrong. Maybe it’ll be 150 years. But when people and criminals get away with stuff in government, that’s.

This cleared everybody. That’s when, you know, you get a real societal problem. Right. So after the two wars, of course, we had the financial crisis again. This is also like the plandemic. This was planned as well. If you bought into or know someone that bought into this, this. This pile of horseshit that they told us made us force down our throat, that we, the consumer, the homeowner, we’re the reason that the financial crisis happened.

No, we are not the reason. That’s a bald faced lie. The reason is the Fed hiked rates 17 straight times from 2004 to 2006. They knew that the economy was levered up to the hilt. And what did they do? They kept pressing. They kept hiking. Right? They crashed the system. And at the time, same time, they get to take out some firms.

They didn’t want to stick around anymore. They got to take out bear Stearns. They got to take out Lehman brothers and give those assets to who? Yeah, their buddy Jamie Dimon at JP Morgan. Washington mutual is another one. Right? JP Morgan snapped all these up. So Wall street took over Main street through the financial crisis. Just horrible. Horrible for all of us.

Then, of course, we had Obama and Obamacare again. Our rights disappearing, everything costs, all our costs rising. That’s real inflation right there, isn’t it? Health care costs have unbelievably skyrocketed. It’s criminal again, what’s happening there. But, you know, we’re strong people, man. We survive, right? Americans are tough and we just work harder. We get smarter. We got to find a way to beat them at their own game.

But it’s all about control, isn’t it? You know, when they can bury us and all these added costs and things like that and regulations, it really is about control. It’s really the chinafication of the US. Of course, that is what’s happening. They want all the power and this. We’re the frog boiling the pot. Which, by the way, folks, is why we’ve got to stay focused and locked in right now. This is the time to stay locked in. We are, you can probably tell by the work we’re doing and the results we’re having.

We are absolutely locked in and we’re not going anywhere. Stick here with us. We’re not going to be perfect. We’re going to make some mistakes. But we intend to fully crush this roaring 2020 bull market. We think the best since the 1995 to 2000 melt up in the next, however years we have left. You know, whether it’s two or three, we think it’s more like five or six, maybe go to the 2030s. It’s that strong of an economy.

It is. This economy is on fire. This economy is on fire. And if you’re not hearing it elsewhere, ask them why they’re not reporting it. Because we’re giving you the facts here. It’s absolutely on fire. This is the worst time ever to be a pessimist. If you’re an optimist, you’re going to win big.

If you’re a pessimist, I feel sorry for you. I really do. And I think it’s, I think we have a superpower. I think, I think those of us that are, that have not been propagandized, okay, we have, like, the ability for that not to work on us. Right. We see through it, see the truth as it’s happening, like the planemic, like the rigged election, like all the things you just talked about, the ability not to be fooled, the ability to think for yourself, to be a contrarian. It’s a superpower because there’s a lot of people that I’m telling you that don’t have this ability. There’s something there where they’re easily, they’re more easily brainwashed and it works on them.

And that’s not who I am. It’s not who Tyler is. I know it’s a smart money group. I know it’s not who you are. But again, we cover these bases because we do have a lot of new listeners all the time. Thank you for joining us. And we want to make sure we’re all on the same page during the roaring 2020s. I’m just going to keep saying it because nobody else is after that, of course, rugged and rigged election and the plan demic happened.

You know, I just have to say it because I haven’t said this in a while. Yeah, 2020 was rigged, but probably so was 2016. Probably was also 20. They had to have, I think maybe they’re all rigged. They had to have Trump in office. Because if it was, if Hillary had won, if Kankles had won. All right. Cankel said, I love that name for her.

So, so apropos, if Kankles had won in 2016, we would have never had lockdowns. What? Who, what republican red states would have agreed to lock down on her orders? What are you talking about? This is a, it’s the cold and flu season. That’s what this is. Right? How, what kind of energy would she have had behind her if she tried to do an operation warp speed. Let’s, oh, let’s trust Hillary. Let’s trust Hillary to take a process, FDA process, it takes eight to ten to twelve to 15 years and gets it down to just a few months. We would have thought she was smoking crap with her husband bill. Right? And we probably didn’t right to say it.

It had to be Trump. Trump had to win because he had so many people behind him. He did a lot of very good things. This wasn’t one of them. So it had to be Trump. He followed in lockstep. He did exactly what they said and he rushed out these death jabs. And now we’re seeing the end result.

My God, just the people that I know personally that have vaccine injury or have died and our family and friends. And again, we read the stories online. It’s just horrifying. It’s just horrifying. Again, we’ve got to have Nuremberg, too. We all have to collectively wake up people, okay? Because this is not going to get better. They’re just going to keep doing this kind of crap to us. Right? But again, we’re going to be the winners out of this, and that’s a real advantage, okay? And so that’s what, that’s why we’re so locked in here.

And then again, in 2020, it had to be Biden because one thing Trump wasn’t going to do, he wasn’t going to make these jabs mandatory. He was not going to do it. Biden did it. How many people do you know, hopefully it didn’t include you, that had to get jabbed or their job is going as college students had to get jabbed or they weren’t going to go to school. High school students, you know, not get. Not gonna be able to do anything. And we go to school and still these things are on the children’s immunization schedules today. This is not over.

That means millions, millions of kids all over the country who have almost no risk to the, to, to COVID, they have to take, they’re taking at least one, and in many states, more than one jab every year from six months old to 18. So, you know, this depopulation event, if that’s what it is, I do think that’s what it is. This is, again, we had to wake people up, you know, at least make sure parents know not to let, not to give this to your kids. Okay? We all love our kids, right? The last thing you want to do is harm them. Why would you ever give a child these jabs? All right? So, yeah, all this combined worst 20 years in american history. And we’re due now, that’s kind of, that’s where I’m going with this. I’m an optimist, right? We’re due. We’re due for an incredibly great period.

Maybe we’re due for 20 great years. I think the evidence points to it again. At least the roaring 2020s will see how far extends beyond. But that’s all of that I just said is why the market’s going to keep going up. Okay, let’s talk about the markets now real quick. Dow Jones Today, we again just see inverse of yesterday with Kashkari sink in the market. Dow Jones today finished up eight tenths, 1%, 307 points, about 120 points off the highs today. Still a very good day.

SV 100 up 1.1%. Russ 2000 up half percent. Nasdaq led the way up one and a quarter percent. And the semis up 1.25%. The semis actually outperformed Nasdaq by just a little bit. Textbook. That’s how it’s supposed to happen. That’s how it happened today.

The ten year today up to a 4.37%. And the VIX lost gave back about 2%. Remember, it was up big 14% yesterday. No cash card yesterday was going along fine. And here comes this moron, the Minneapolis Fed president, okay, Neil Kashkari expels his name, Neel, not Neil. So there, you know, you know right away there’s something different about this guy. No, Kashkari comes out and of course, these fed, these fed talking heads, you know, they have to be out there. There are financial masters of the universe.

They have to be everywhere. You know, they have to, they know that they’re in this for the, they’re in this for the next gig, right? They’re not in it for this gig. They’re in it for the gig they get when they leave the fed to go be CEO of a vanguard, right? Get a cushy job at the fidelity, right? Something big with the big money tied to it, not the millions the tens of millions are going to make. That’s why they’re doing all this. So Kashkari came out yesterday and said, yeah, we may not cut rates at all this year. The market just reversed. We finished out just down 500 points or so. And I’m watching this and I go, look at this moron.

People are going to listen to this. The markets are going to listen to it good. People are going to get hurt. Jay Powell, just two days ago, the Fed chairman just two days ago said he confirmed he expects there to be three rate cuts this year. So here’s Kashkari going off script, seeking the markets, making things up. They’re laughing stocks, but they do move the market. So we had to pay attention to them, unfortunately. And of course, the geopolitical turmoil, we talked about that yesterday, that Iran is probably going to look for revenge against Israel, for bombing the syrian consulate, taking out one of their key guys.

That’s probably going to happen. So again, it was kind of a topsy turmoil day yesterday, but we reversed it today. Very good day today. And I think that again, the key is the dips are going to continue to be very short lived. Jobs data, again was good today, as we just talked about. And again, I think that we’re in very good shape. Remember April? April, the saying is bad things don’t happen in April, right. April is the second best month of the year.

It’s a very good month to be an investor and then sell in may and go away. Sometimes kicks in, sometimes it doesn’t. We’ll know, I think, because we’re going to be paying attention to the things we watch and the VR investing system, the internals, the foundational strength in the market, all of our indicators, the relative stream charts we run, they really give you the inside baseball to what’s happened to the markets. That’s what we look at here. That’s a big part, of course, of your investing system. But remember what happens in two weeks. Q one earnings. Q one earnings.

That’s why every, every sell off we get is going to be bought because remember, if we are in as we believe, the next 1995 to 2000 melt up led by tech and semis, every dip is going to be bought intact because their earnings are just going to keep skyrocketing. Okay, just thinking. Remember Nvidia and everything they’ve been talking about? Now it’s been backed up by so many other companies. This is real, this is happening, and it’s going to be extraordinarily beneficial to the US economy. Remember what Kathie Wood’s team is saying? Just great research out of her shop. They’re expecting GDP growth, GDP to grow six to 8% a year for 50 to 20 years. So three times the current growth rate for 15 to 20 years. You’re talking about an additional hundred trillion dollars in global GDP growth over what the current estimates are.

So you wonder why our stocks going to melt up. Why are we in a structural market of size and scope? There you go. The market’s always, the market knows what’s coming next. Which is why I pay attention to it. It’s why I’ll never understand people that fight the market. Why in God’s name as you want to do that, be a trend follower, right. You don’t have to guess which the market’s going to go. You know, it’s telling you that’s same thing with individual stocks.

You don’t have to guess. They’re telling you which way they want to go. So it’s not of course quite that simple, but trend followers kind of, it really is kind of that simple. Then you’ve got to make the tough decisions about what stock sectors don’t own, you know, where to put your stops in, you know, when trends change because they do that kind of thing. So Kashkari. Yeah. This guy, you know, he’s wrong more than Jay Powell, if you can believe it. He’s wrong more than Jay Powell.

And yet people still listen to this clown. All right. All right. I want to get now to, all right, I want to talk now just for a few minutes about what’s happening. The miners I mentioned a minute ago owning hard assets, inflationary type assets. We’ve been pounding the table over the last month and you’ve been listening, you know, we have been pounding the table just like we were pounding the table on the semis from the bottom of the tech, right? We’ve been pounding the table in that last month on the semis. It’s happening, right? All time highs in gold. GDX today up another three and a half percent.

Clear breakout as we’ve been reporting to you here. This is interesting. Listen to this. Gold at all time highs again today. The last quote here, 2000.

Podcast Newsletter

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Time Stamps

00:00 Bitcoin beats inflation, real estate remains solid.
03:28 Inflation is low, earnings are growing. Consumer strong.
06:52 Concerns about untouchable government officials and societal decline.
10:19 Ability to see truth is a superpower.
13:44 Warning against frequent COVID jabs for children.
18:20 Tech and semis driving consistent market growth.
20:03 People listen to the clown talking about economics.

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