In today's episode, Kip examines the market reaction to the latest CPI data and discusses the media's portrayal of the current administration, emphasizing the significant differences between Trump's first and current terms. He also sheds light on what many are missing regarding Trump's economic impact, highlighting the importance of "animal spirits" and what that means for the future of stock market performance. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Wednesday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast. Hope you had a great day today. We got the CPI data today. I was on Charles Payne show today on Fox Business. Let’s talk about that a little bit. I got CPI data which came in, if you listen to the media, it came in hot, especially the Trump hate media.

That’s particular where they really like to say, oh, Trump, look at this. He’s been in office almost just over three weeks and he hasn’t solved the inflation problem. Well, what is this guy doing? I mean, it is hilarious watching the left and the Trump haters try to tear apart, tear down. And they’re trying to turn administration officials against each other. Right? They’re trying to label Musk as some kind of a bad guy and trying to drive a wedge between him and Trump. That’s just not going to happen. This administration is completely different. This is so important.

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This administration has almost nothing in common with Trump’s first administration. And this is what, you know, Mike Cernovich is someone that I know a bit. Mike Cernovich has got pretty good political insights, man. I agree with everything he says, but I know a lot of you may follow him from Twitter, etc. And Cernovich said this, started saying this early on, very early in Trump’s administration. Said, man, look at the, he’s bringing the wrong people in. These aren’t Trump people that are going to turn on him. Cernovich nailed it.

That’s exactly what happened. And it really, it really destroyed Trump’s ability to accomplish almost any, anything because he had, again, he had turncoats that were working for him that were spies essentially for the left and for the rhinos. And from day one, he was struggling to get anything accomplished. It was a constant battle. And you know Trump, he doesn’t, he doesn’t, he doesn’t back away from any issue. He gets everything head on. So anyway, the point being this administration is so incredibly different. You’ve heard us say it many times here.

This is without question the most pro business administration in American history. That really matters. And I think this is the point that so many, and I really do. Okay, I’ll talk about this more in just a moment. But I think if I had to pick one point that people are missing the most when they, they’re bearish on the markets, they’re worried about the economy. They think Trump’s tariff policy, again, we hear this all day long. His tariff policy is not working. It’s not going to accomplish anything.

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What people are missing more than anything is that the American people and Tyler really pointed this out to me. This, the American people are seeing through this. The American people never, ever, Trump, Trump supporters did not back away from supporting him regardless of what happened. His base stayed with him. And now that base has grown. And these people aren’t listening to what the perma bears are saying. These people aren’t listening to what the left is saying, not listening to what the mainstream media is saying. They’re all behind Trump.

And the key point to that is that the American people recognize animal spirits are happening. They’re not gonna happen. They’re already here. And that’s the significant point that I think so many are missing. Because when you have true animal spirits, and it’s been a very long time, folks, a very long time, I can’t even. Reagan, I mean, Reagan probably was the last time we had true animal spirits in this country. And even that took time for him to get going. Took him about a year and a half to get going because he kind.

It was so in such a shambles under Jimmy Carter with interest rates, inflation at 18, 20%. But that, I think, is the last time we had true animal spirits in this country. Because it really didn’t get a chance to have it in Trump’s first term, did we? We saw a snapshot of it, GDP growth. We had a 5% GDP growth quarter. And then, you know, next thing it happened, the Fed started hiking rates, right? Seven, eight times. Jay Powell wrecked the economy, wrecked the market, the fourth quarter from hell in 2018. And then right after that, then the markets recover and what happens? We get the pandemic, right? So this is going to be the first time, I think this is why so many are missing it. This is the first time that we’re, this country is going to get, get a chance to see firsthand what having true animal spirits means.

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And this is, by the way, while we’ve said from, from, from Jump street that we believe GDP growth is going to hit 5% at least in the first 18 months, folks, I think it’s going to happen this year. I just have a feeling it’s going to happen this year when people realize that, no, inflation is not a problem. Oh, my God, look at rates plummeting. Rates are going to plummet. Elon Musk put a tweet about this today saying exactly that. When we get a handle on this problem with Doge and we start breaking down the federal budget and finding all the fraud, waste and Abuse. And we take that out of the system, interest rates are going to plummet. Jay Powell, actually, I watched, if you watch some of his congressional testimony the last couple of days, this is a different Jay Powell, very differential to Trump.

And I, it surprised me. Matter of fact, my ears perked up a couple times. Jay Powell said something effective. You know, there was a far left Congress probably maxing waters, you know, asking a tough question about Trump’s policies, trying to pin him in. And, and to that, Jay Powell said, you know, it’s not our job at the Fed to question the President’s policies. President Trump was elected to deal with immigration. He was elected to deal with economic issues, with tariffs. In this case, he was elected to deal with fiscal issues in the government.

And then he said, the quote that really stood out to me was he said here at the Fed, it’s not our job to question the wisdom of Congress or of Trump or the president. It’s very different. JAY POWELL So I’m hopeful that we’re not going to get a repeat of the first time because folks, the CPI data came in today and everyone again, everyone’s saying it’s hot. It was not hot. It was certainly not hot. Now, based on the report, again, CPI came in at 3%, core CPI at 3.3%. On the surface it looks like inflation is going the wrong direction. But you have to understand seasonality for January inflationary data, really all government data is horrible.

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It’s renowned for being completely unreliable. Number one, know that some of these things that in the inflation report made no sense whatsoever. Shelter costs are falling rapidly, but somehow they found apartment dwelling inflation was higher by a small segment. Remember, there are a lot of states that don’t even report this data, right? Certainly not on time. So the point being, inflation is going to continue to fall. This is a high confidence call from us, okay? High confidence call. Inflation is going to continue to fall and interest rates will continue to fall. Now, we’ve made the point, the case for a long time that it really doesn’t matter, okay? We’re going to have a level of GDP growth not just because of Trump, big part of it, but it’s the innovation revolution.

We’re going to have GDP growth that most people simply are not prepared for. I’m telling you straight up, it’s happening. The work that Cathie Wood’s team has done at arc, we’ve highlighted that here quite a bit because it meshes with ours so beautifully, the work that they’ve done, they believe GDP growth is going to top 10% by 2030 and that from here to then we’re looking at 5, 6, 7, 8, 9% GDP growth. You know, again, if we’re at 5%, if they’re right, I mean this is a melt up bull market for many years. Kind of think that’s what we’re going to have anyway. But the point being, as far as rates go, and I’ve made this, this case so many times, I didn’t get a chance to stay on Charles Payne show today because the topic of interest rates didn’t come up today. We had a lot of stocks to cover. I’ll touch on those in a moment and we’ll send the link out.

Actually I just posted it on Twitter and we’ll send it out. It’ll be in our, in our letter in the morning. But the point with rates and hear me on this, please Hear me, the 10 year today jumped to a 4.63% and it has a lot of people’s hair on fire. A lot of people think, you know, Here we go, 1 to 5%, inflation’s not handled. They’re all wrong. Okay, but even, even if they’re right, even if, Even if the 10 year goes back to 5, it’s not. But even if it were, the markets don’t care. The markets don’t give a shit.

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I’m going to tell you why, because this environment that we’re in now, the innovation revolution is going to be far more powerful, far more power than what we saw in the.com era, 95 to 2000. You got to take my word on this. I was a financial advisor then. Management had $100 million to help take three companies public during that run. Took seven companies public in total. And I was pretty locked in at that time, right? This is, I was a younger guy. I was putting in, you know, 14, 16, 18 hour days, hard days, right on the phone 24, 7 and working pretty much every weekend, traveling a lot. And I saw firsthand, we had animal spirits then, but it was just pretty much in the stock market in dot com related it didn’t really broaden out.

This is a different beast than that. But the key point being during that era the average on the 10 year was 6.1%, 6.1% yet the market was up every year better than 20% again, NASDAQ up 575% over five years. Of course that’s where all the action was. So I just don’t believe it’s going to matter. Even if rates do stay elevated, they’re not, but they’re not going to. So the point being it doesn’t matter either way. I’m telling you. Animal spiritual coming back everybody.

We talk to management teams. We were at the NAEP conference last week. People are rip roaring to go. They know they’ve got the right president for this time. It’s drill baby, drill. So for oil and gas, just look out. I mean they’re, they’re, they’re salivating and they’re about to drill like crazy. Okay.

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But that’s going to filter out through the economy and it already is. So our view remains government data. It just, it’s irrelevant. It’s irrelevant. And the market showed you that today, didn’t they? You know we had a sharply lower open Dow Jones over 400 points lower. Nasdaq over 200 points lower. Nasdaq finished up on the day folks. The semis finished up on the day.

SoxL Semi ETF finished up on the day. Dow Jones recouped half his losses down a couple hundred points. That’s nothing. That’s a half percent. S 500 down a quarter of a percent. Russ 2000 down 810 of 1%. That is a very interest rate sensitive group. I, I would that you’re going to see with the rally that we saw in NASDAQ continue because it’s not the news that matters.

It’s the market’s reaction to that news. And when you’ve got news that upsets the markets like this did but yet the markets come rallying back, that’s the tell. That’s the indicator that you look for. So yeah, I was on Charles show today. Let me just tell you what we talked about Tesla. It is our number one pick for the innovation revolution. You got to own one stock by Tesla. I talked about that and why we are we added to positions aggressively yesterday, hit extreme oversold on steroids on the VRA system.

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That is typically a reliable bottom but it just doesn’t matter. As I said on Charlie’s show today, it was pouring down here in Houston. We live in Sugar Land. So it’s about, I got about a 25 minute trip into, into into where the Fox studio is. It was pouring down rain but I decided to go ahead and put it on FSD full self driving just to see how this car handles it. How does it drive itself when in bad rain. And I put on hurry mode so I wanted to go fast and so I just let, I sat back a little nervous being honest because it was, it was raining pretty bad and this car just handled it Like a dream. I didn’t have a single intervention.

And until I got to the parking garage where you have to kind of take, take control, I didn’t have to touch the steering wheel once or break or anything. And that’s coming again. Full self driving is going to be unsupervised. Full self driving will be in place in June, according to Musk in Austin. And then next year it’ll be all over the country. Okay. By the end of this year it’ll be throughout Texas and California. That’s what, that’s what Tesla believes.

Based on. They’ve got to get to a certain level without an intervention. Right. To prove it’s safer than even a human being or it’ll never be approved. They expect they’ll be there by year end for California and Texas, then all over the country next year. And then Optimus robots, you know, they’re going to produce up to 10,000 of those this year just to work in Tesla factories. And then next year 10 times that. Right.

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So our goal in the Heritage family is to have an Optimus robot and to get one as soon as possible. How cool is this thing going to be? Right? So Tesla, that’s the stock we talked about today. Also, I will go the whole, the whole interview, but talked about the AI arms race happening with the, with the US and China. The significance of that. Tyler talked about this in the podcast yesterday, the JD Vance presentation, which you have to watch. He just laid it out. JD Vance is brilliant when it comes to all these topics. But he said, you know, look, this is an arms race.

It’s, it’s, it’s a winner take all arms race. And so we have to beat China at this. And the difference, this is, this, I thought, made the point really clear. The difference between China and the US is they both believe in innovation, but we believe in innovation because it gives us more opportunity and freedom. China believes in innovation because it gives an opportunity to have a stronger authoritarian government. Isn’t that exactly right? Which is, as Charles Payne said today, that’s how, that’s why we have to win. So we talked about that a bit and then we talked about one of my favorite gold stocks, which is Snowline Gold, which I think is going to, it’s up 400% two and a half years. And I think that’s just the beginning.

So it was. I always love being with Charles. He’s fantastic. Smart, smart. It’s the best financial TV that there is and just love watching the show. Thank you again, Charles, for having me back on what else today? Look, when I talk about animal spirits, I can’t not talk about this. And it’s been a little while since we’ve talked about it. We have pounded the table on this topic.

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People ask us, okay, you Beat the market 18, 21 years and you got, you got the bear market bottom call ride of October 2022. How do you do that? The key point is you have to get the macro right. If you get the macro right right, and this is typically what the media and the public gets wrong. Because whether it’s a psyop or whether it’s just this is just the way lemmings operate, I don’t know. I just know that my brain doesn’t work that way. We tend to see through the noise. And again, I’ve done this 40 years, so I’m sure that’s why, okay, I wasn’t always like this. 9 11, frankly, is what turned me into a better investigator.

And it really opened my eyes to what’s really happening. And that certainly was of course very different than doing it in the stock market. But the thought process that changes is still the same because the propaganda stops working on you. That’s what 911 did for me. The propaganda stopped working on me. And so what Tyler and I found when we were researching the big bribe were these economic facts that just blew us away. I mean, seriously blew us away. Let me give you a few of them.

Okay. Net equity in homes at all time high. How many of these are you hearing in the mainstream media? As I go through the list, you tell me how many of these you’re hearing about in the mainstream media, financial or otherwise. Net equity in homes at all time high. 40% of Americans own their home without a mortgage all time high. Of course, what 40? You would think that’s something that everyone would talk about because that means you cannot. It’s a physical impossibility to have another financial crisis or a housing meltdown. When you have 40% of Americans own their home without a mortgage and net equity homes at an all time high and consumer net worth at all time high, it cannot happen.

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That means you’ve got the ability to lever up for both the individual and for the corporations is unprecedented. We said this for a long time. I really think it’s true. I believe that the financial situation for both consumer and corporations is unprecedented in this country. That’s why this market’s going to keep going up. It’s why we called the bottom in October 2022. Credit scores all time high. Corporate debt to market cap to 50 year lows.

I mean, these are things that, you know, typically you don’t see happen in, in an economy that’s in trouble or a market that’s about to peak. And there’s so many people calling for a top. The fear and greed index is $just reminded me hit drop back into fear territory. Today we are less than 1% from all time high in the S500. Yet the fear and greed index is in fear territory. What are you talking about? How’s that even possible? How? Last week, you know, the AAI investor sentiment survey came back with the largest number of bears, percentage of bears since we had, since November of 2022. But we’re in this massive bull market. How is that possible? Because there’s a sigh of negativity or something out there now.

Actually, I know what it is. Look, we had three brutal bear markets from October, excuse me, from 2018 to 2022, we had three bear markets where in each case the average stock fell 40 to 60%. These happened back to, back to back, essentially. Okay, absolutely brutal. And so that’s, that’s what happened. It rewired our brains. We also had the worst two decades in American history, something we spent a lot of time, a lot of time talking about here. So the public has been hardwired now to expect bad things to happen both in the stock market and the economy and frankly in America.

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But we don’t have that president anymore. We got, we got, we got the, we got the difference maker now as president and with this strong financial balance sheet that I just spoke about, that we’ve been talking about now for over two years, almost two and a half years now. We published the big bribe in August 2022. Again, it is hard to be anything other than enormously bullish. Enormously bullish. Especially with the innovation revolution and now the right president at the right time, folks, as you can tell, it’s hard for me to see any outcome other than this market will continue to melt up. Going through a little bit of rocky period. Think about, this is crazy, right? Remember, think about how bullish everybody was, how excited everybody was when Trump got elected, right? Everybody was so optimistic.

So here we go, Here we go, folks. We’re only three weeks into this administration and look at all the pessimism, look at the bears, look at the people freaking out about tariffs or whatever, about Doge, right? It makes no sense. Stay the course. Right? I also talked about the semis today. I’ll just mention this again here and then we’ll move on to the internals. All right, Charles asked me about the semis and when are they going to break out? What’s going to be the catalyst? Well, here’s the catalyst. The catalyst is the semis. The AI boom.

The innovation revolution doesn’t work without AI and AI doesn’t work with us. How you doing? How’s that? So the semis have to participate. They fit in a four to five month consolidation pattern. They did bottom in August last year, but they’ve just been in a trading range, very choppy. Right. That’s what we think is the next big thing is going to happen here. Out of the blue. The semis will start leading and that’s going to be the next impetus for tech stocks and for the broad market to really start marching higher.

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Because otherwise, if the semis do break down below the 200 day and they’re pretty close to it right now. If the semis do break down below the 200 day, that’s telling you something else is going on. And look, you know, every bull market has shakeouts. Every bull market’s going to have corrections. So, you know, that can still happen in the context of a major long term bull market. I just don’t think that’s going to happen this early in Trump’s administration. I don’t think that’s going to happen. Animal spirits, you look at the fund flows coming into equities, hedge funds are buying tech stocks, candle or fist, in case you didn’t know that.

Okay, so that tends to be more, more aligned with the smart money. So yeah, I can just keep repeating the obvious. But look, we believe this is a clear cut generational bull market. This is the most bullish I’ve been in my career. If this, if the semis break down, you know what, then so be it. Maybe we’re going to go through periods of chop. Maybe we’re going to have a 5, 8, 10, 12% correction in the market. I just don’t see it happening.

The rotational strength in this market has been textbook. The semis have done nothing yet. The market keeps going up. That’s a that, that is a that. If you’re bearish, you got to look at that and go, wait a minute, that’s not, wait, what’s going on here? I got the call right? The semis haven’t done jack shit. But why isn’t the market going down? Because the rotational themes and the strength in other areas of this, of this market and this economy will not allow that to happen. So there we go. All right, let’s talk about the internals today, not great internals but no pretty good actually for the action we had this morning because remember they are cumulative throughout the day.

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Ben’s decline slightly negative today for NASDAQ NYC right at 2 to 1 negative for advanced decline volume today. Big time. Big time bullish for NASDAQ 64% up volume day for Nasdaq again good come back in NASDAQ today. NYSE today only slightly volume slightly negative volume for NYSE advanced decline also slightly negative on the day. No big deal there at all in our sector watch today not as good. Quick refresh. Yeah nine sectors lower, two finished higher downside Energy giving back some of its gains down 2.7%. Real estate down 9/10 of 1% to the upside.

Very not much there really. Consumer staples and communication services both with minor gains on the day. Commodity watch. Look I could talk about what’s happening gold and silver and the miners again. I talked about Snowline today with Charles. This is going to be big. It’s going to be a good big mining company. Okay.

I think the largest a gold discovery in North America in at least a decade, probably more. I think they’ll have the gold the resource report out later this year I think about mid year. I’m trying to get a handle they haven’t announced it. Trying to get some inside skinny there haven’t been do it quite yet. But the bottom line is gold is moving higher because the major players Comex, okay the JP Morgan’s right that really control Comex. They’re taking physical delivery of gold at a pace that has never happened before. You have to go back and this, we just, we just surpassed the all time high in this. You have to go back to the pandemic to find a time where there’s been this kind of volume taking physical delivery.

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And at Comex what does that mean when, when, when when the paper market see paper market being like GLD right these, these paper ETFs which are scams essentially. When this starts happening, when physical delivery starts taking place that tells you these major institutions have a sense of what might come. Now the word today we’ll see if this is this plays out. Trump is told his insiders that would mean Scott Besson, of course his treasury secretary and others that he wants to put the US Dollar back on the gold standard folks, if that’s what’s happening here. By the way we’ve recommended this. We’ve said we should have the US Dollar put back on a standard of both bitcoin and gold leading of course. And bitcoin, if something like that takes place, it makes, it makes the move higher in gold. That’s happening right now.

Makes sense, does it not? 1971, Richard Nixon took it off, takes off the gold standard. What happened after that? Inflation. Our currency started being debased. This is why both spouses and most families must work because of money printing. You can’t do that if your currency is tied, actually has a physical tie to gold and not paper gold, physical gold. This move in gold, folks, is real. It’s just, you know, we’ll tell you as we alerted yesterday, yes, gold is hitting extreme overbought on steroids. That’s our most overbought designation is typically bad things happen.

We’ll see. I don’t think anything bad’s gonna happen in gold. I think it’s going to go through, maybe through a sideways pause, work off the overbought readings and then march up again. Folks, we’re at 29, 29 an ounce on gold right now. Right? 3,000 is just a day away. It looks like today gold was down $3.60 at again 29:29. Love this story. Miners even more so.

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Miners have yet to even have a big bull market. That’s how you know this bull market in precious metals is early. That’s how you know. Because until the miners have their melt up and it will get cr. I’ve been through a few of these, okay? The miners are going to go through an insane period of melting up, especially the junior miners because they’re way too cheap. This group is trading at all time low valuations based on cash flow multiples based on their relationship relative strength ratio to gold. These are all time lows. Miners are going to get jumping.

They already kind of have GDX. The minor ETF is already up 25% this year. No one’s talking about this, okay? And so again, we’re going to make absolute fortunes in this group. I promise you this, folks. I promise you it’s going to be a lot of fun. And again, that’s how you know the bull market in gold and silver hadn’t even started yet because the miners haven’t started, you know, ramping. I’m talking about a 500% move higher, 500% move higher in a compressed period of time, couple three years. That’s what’s directly ahead of us for the gold and silver miners.

Silver today up 1.1%. 3270 copper today continues to move higher, up by 2% today at 469 a pound. Crude oil again down today, down 2 bucks a barrel. 7121. Drill, baby, drill. That is going to keep it. That’s what Trump wants. Trump wants oil prices down.

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He knows that’s how inflation is going to fall. It goes into everything. So it is what it is. We’ll make a ton of money directly in our investments into these, these energy stocks like Lost Soldier, which if you were on the zoom last night, folks, they really believe this is the largest gas and oil discovery in the country since the Permian Basin. That there’s nothing like this. 40,000 acres, folks. Virgin territory surrounded by massive protection. This has never been drilled because of uranium mine there.

Took them four decades to put this together. It is incredibly sexy story. So unique. And Brunner is in New York right now with his financial team and they are raking in the money. So gonna be a fun run, folks. But again, in the meantime, we do think that oil price now, natural gas prices should continue to move higher because again, natural gas will be a mate. Is, is a major player. It’s the major player for utilities, of course.

And with the AI boom happening in the data center boom, you know, we’re going to need so much more Nat Gas and nuclear, which of course we love as well. So we love NAT Gas, by the way. NAT Gas today while was down 2, 2.8%. Nat gas today up 7 to 1% at 354 per mcf. What else? Today, I guess we’re down to the very bottom. We’re down to bitcoin. Bitcoin today up to 1.7% at 97,915. You know, we love it.

[00:27:25]:
We loved it for a long time. Going through a consolidation period here. I think some people are disappointed that the strategic reserve hasn’t been announced. But folks understand that takes congressional approval. Just like putting the dollar back on the gold standard. These take congressional approval. That work is being done, that heavy lifting is being done behind the scenes. So when they announced the strategic reserve for bitcoin, it’s ready to go.

There’s no need to talk about it. Congress is going to prove it. So use this as a buying opportunity like Tesla, you know, it’s the Kmart blue light special. That’s what’s going on here. And when you know something’s going to go high like we do, then you know you love the dips. You love to buy the dips. The smartest of smart money strategies since this bull market started October 13, 2022. A bottom that we called to the day within five minutes, actually.

All right, folks, that’s it for the day. Hey, always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day. Even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.