In today's episode, Tyler breaks down an exciting day of stock market action on Wall Street, highlighting a number of All-Time Highs from our major indexes to the semiconductors. He also discusses a record level of companies reporting earnings beats, and what to expect from tech earnings going forward. Tune in for the latest, actionable, market-driven analysis. 

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Tyler Herriage here with you for today’s VRA Investing podcast.

Hope you’re all having a fantastic week week out there this week. It’s always great to be here with you on the podcast for a day of all time highs from our markets, from some of our major sectors as well. And today we’ve got some breaking news for cryptocurrencies, some phenomenal earnings data to bring to you as well. So we got an exciting podcast here for you today. We likely won’t have a podcast tomorrow.

Just a heads up there in case you don’t see one coming out tomorrow. So we’ll try to recap it all here today because this is a good one here to kind of wrap the week on. You know, unless something really interesting happens tomorrow, we, like I said, we won’t be here. But again, great day from our markets today. Another day of all time highs. Got a few charts to share here with you today as well, and a few screen shares as well. I want to say first of all, you know, thank you for all of your feedback so far with the screen share new video podcast as well. You’ve gotten some great feedback.

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We’ll keep playing with it and getting better at it here as well. Sometimes it might be a little hit or miss just with the functionality here, still getting used to the new systems and all. But my goal in doing this has really been to, to bring obviously that visual element to the podcast because so much of what we do in finance is numbers, figures, charts, and sometimes it’s tough to conceptualize those things in just an audio format. It really helps at least for me to see things as well as hear things. I also like hands on, get in, get dirty with it, right. And really dig in to what these things mean. And I gotta say how grateful I am to have such a, you know, a wonderful father and mentor here at the VRA in Kip. And thank you for the shout out Kip yesterday.

It’s really special time here for the v celebrating our 22 year anniversary. So, you know, like I said, couldn’t be more grateful to be here. But so during this time I was kind of reflecting on when we began the VRA Investing podcast and where it has come to. Now today I think I speak for Kip as well, that our goal in doing this VRA Investing podcast and especially making it free was to walk people through the VRA way of thinking about investing.

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We’re not always talking about trades specifically on the podcast. Not definitely not as specifically as we do in our daily updates to members. So if you aren’t with us or if you haven’t tried it out already, why not come and join us? We’ve got a 14 day free trial going on@vra.letter.com. um, but as I was getting into the business and Kip was teaching me a lot and you know, I, I’m a really curious person by nature. So as you can tell, I mean, I bought every book that you could think of, whether it was on day trading, long term, investing, options investing, options trading, different strategies. You know, I was trying to find podcasts out there that weren’t just about investing, but also can give me the recap of the day like we do here on the V Investing podcast in an actionable kind of way. So, you know, I was going through podcasts, different shows, different channels, you know, Bloomberg, cnbc, Fox. This was Fox Business.

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This was years ago now, before, like Kip says often CNBC really is unwatchable now. And what Kip and I both found in that process was there really wasn’t a podcast out there or a show out there. That was exactly what we were looking for, what we wanted to see on a daily basis from the market. And so that’s the need that we were looking to fill with the vra, because so much of what we do, we’re doing this research anyway on a daily basis, right? Because we love it first and foremost. And then now we have the opportunity to, to bring it to you in a podcast format as well. Uh, I mean, Kip and I both enjoy it very much. So we hope that you value it as well and get, continue to get value from these podcasts. So your feedback is always welcome.

So to dive into that a little bit more. And you know, one last point there, uh, I gotta give credit to Charles Payne. I know that Kip and I both do that often here, but really one is an amazing host on Fox Business, really one of the, the, the few out there on any network that is a regular watchable show. Really fantastic show. And so that is a lot of what Kip and I wanted to bring to the V Investing podcast, obviously from the VR way, VRA way of thinking. But as somebody who, who manages, you know, our own funds, what do we want to see from the market? Not what, you know, the investment and, and institutions want us to see, because most of this data is public.

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So what did we want to see on a daily basis from the market? And that’s what we’ve presented here with the VRA Investing podcast. So hope you enjoy it. Hope you continue to enjoy it. We’ll have a great podcast here for you today as well. So quickly, I’ll go ahead and I mentioned the VRA way of thinking. I’ve shown this one here before. Here are our, our 12 fundamental and technical screens. These are public, right? But this is we have our own proprietary way of looking at all of these things which we’ll walk through here on the podcast.

Right? These are things we’ve talked about in charts. Let’s start on the technical side, because we have looked at charts lately, right? Whether it’s moving average, the technicals for our momentum oscillators, which are at extreme overbought levels. You, you’ve heard us say time and time again there’s nothing more bullish in the market that gets overbought and stays overbought. We also look at volume. That’s a big part of what we do here as well. You know, obviously there’s so many indicators that you can look at throughout the day. Behind price, there really is no second best other than volume. You know, most of these indicators are based off of one of those two things, just different derivatives down the chain of those factors.

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Like, like moving averages, right? It’s following price. It’s the average price. So like Lane Misler like to say, there’s nothing like price to change sentiment. But then from the fundamental side as well, you’ve heard us talk a lot about Federal Reserve policy. We’ll get into some of that here today. Earnings, gdp, all of these things are regular things that we talk about here in the VRA Investing podcast. And we, we see as such a valuable framework here in the 12 screens that these are the key things that we’re watching for on a daily basis. And like I said, there was no other show that provided it in this kind of a way.

These are the things that are most important to us. So why wouldn’t we think it’s important to our clients and to fellow investors out there? So hope you enjoyed that there as well. Let’s keep going here on the charts. Where to begin, where to begin. Let’s go ahead and start with earnings today because this is the exciting, this is the fun stuff. It’s been a big week, you know, really kicking off earnings here for Q2. We had the banks earlier in the week. Kip is reported on that already here.

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The financials were up on the day today. Then we had asml, you know, starting to get into the chip names now. Here, the most important names out there really for this market. We talk about the semis or tech leading the market and semis leading tech. It’s exactly what we’ve seen from the April 7 lows. It’s exactly what we want to see continue. And asml, while not a commonly talked about stock here on the V Investing podcast, we own some other chipmaids. We like Nvidia.

I think there no secret here that we’ve owned in like Nvidia which also hit an all time high today. But ASML is another important player here. Sold off on earnings, but a solid beat here. Geopoliticals here, likely a buy the dip opportunity. Now the one I wanted to get to for today. This morning we had TSMC Taiwan Semiconductors reporting earnings. Now this is a massive company, roughly a 1.3 trillion dollar market cap. I know that pales in comparison to Nvidia’s 4 trillion dollar market cap.

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But these companies can move together for you know, very important reason that is easy to miss. Nvidia, you know, gets obviously lumped in. We think semiconductors, they all make their own things, which is true. Nvidia makes designs and makes designs and writes the software for these chips. TSMC Taiwan Semi actually produces the chips. So these companies are really quite a bit of a package deal because there are very few companies in the world and certainly not that can produce Nvidia ships to start and certainly not the capacity that TSM can do it right. Now obviously we’ve talked a lot about semiconductor capacity coming to the United States as well. Still in the works.

Those plants are still ramping up. So for the time being, you know, TSM is really the only player on the block with it comes to making these super high end chips, which is very important. Then today after the close we had Netflix as well reporting a revenue and earnings beat. And now this is where things get interesting. Okay, we’ll get to next week’s earnings in a second because we’ll start to really kick into high gear for earnings. But check this out. Just saw this right after the close today. So far, 55 companies in the S&P 500 have reported earnings.

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51 out of the 55 have beat on estimates. No shocker here, right? Q2 was going. Estimates were significantly revised lower because of tariffs after Trump’s, you know, Liberation Day on April 2nd and then the pause on April 7th or well the stock market low on April 7th. You know, we saw the sell off leading into it. Analyst estimates were in incredibly low. But this is a game that the analysts play time and time again and the companies play it as well, you know, taking advantage of every news headline that breaks as an opportunity to lower their estimates.

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I think it’s now 37 of the last 40 earnings reports have averaged beats above average. The 10 year average of gains. 37 out of 40, 40 have beat analyst expectations.

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So that’s the game, you know companies, if the analyst lowers it their, their expectations and the stock gets hit. A lot of these companies use that as a buying opportunity. Right. Share buybacks which now that we reported earnings will be exiting the share buyback blackout period.

It’s been a Great start to Q2 already. We’re at all time highs. We talk often about end of quarter fund flows and now again back into this, back out of the share buyback blackout period. For some of these companies, I think it’s about two weeks after earnings unless it was an already scheduled share buyback period or allocated funds for share buyback. So next week we’ll continue to kick it into high gear. Here, let me hide this here I guess. Here, let me. This is actually I usually use Earnings Whisper but they didn’t have this week’s chart for quite up and ready yet.

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Earnings hub. Here is the interesting one. Let’s see, you can filter by all kinds of things. Popular market cap, like I said, first time using this one, the no filter. You get a big number of names there. So let’s take a quick look at what we’ve got next week. Again the visual here does help to lay this out. So Monday got some big names, Domino, Verizon, Defense names, Coke, that’s locky there, gm.

And then but Wednesday is when we really start to kick into high gear again. Some more big names in there. Texas Instruments will be one to watch as well. But Tesla after the close on Wednesday. You know we’re long term fans of Tesla here. As Kip likes to say here often and I couldn’t agree with more, anytime Elon Musk said something, it makes you want to sell the stock and you see it dipping. You should be buying the stock most likely at those times. Those are a gift for where this company is is headed.

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You know, we’ll stay tuned. We got so after those earnings. Well, I’m looking forward to hearing some announcements on the call about the Cyber Cab rollout. The area has expanded here in Austin, Texas. They’re rolling out to new cities. I haven’t gotten one yet, but as soon as you know it’s fully open to the public. Absolutely. I’ll you know, add a little video to the podcast here as well.

Then some more big names later in the week. We’ll be sure to be reporting on those here. But again, so far, great earnings beats from this market and, you know, to be expected after the Q2 tariff scare, expectations were just so low for this market. All right, quickly here. I do want to recap what’s happening. The latest with the Federal Reserve. As you know, it’s been floated all week. Is he going to be replaced? What’s going to happen? You know, you heard Kip last week talking about Chair Payne with Charles Payne, which again, I mean, what a phenomenal pick that would be.

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Other names have been floated out there as well. But what Charles really gets and none of these Fed officials currently get, is what matters to Main street and how interest rates affect Main Street. He had a great interview today. I won’t, I won’t butcher all of his fantastic quotes in there, but just absolutely right and spot on of where we should be. And even within the Fed right now, these academics really, they don’t, I mean, it’s tough to say they don’t know what they’re doing because we’ve talked about this point as well, that if economic growth is going to be on the rise, wage growth is going to be on the rise, you know, GDP printing numbers not seen in decades. If that, as we believe will be the case playing out going forward for us, then J. Pal might end up being right. But this is the funny part.

It’d be for all the wrong reasons. He’s leaving rates higher because he’s afraid of tariffs. Uncertainty, uncertainty, uncertainty.

We’ve talked about this as well. If I came here on the podcast and every time just told you that I was uncertain like SJ Powell has done for the last 18 months now. And let’s not even get back to the complete width of on transitory inflation.

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That Kip has talked about this week as well. You know, it really does seem like these people are just guessing yet, Mary, there’s not even a consensus inside of the Federal Reserve. Mary Daly was on today, being interviewed by Mike McKee, the Bloomberg host, you know, says that two rate cuts this year is a reasonable outlook. And I think, you know, saying, okay, two rate cuts this year is a reasonable outlook. So that would bring it to, you know, what, three and a half to 3.75 on the fed funds rate about that.

Or four quarter, 450 right now. Yes. Two cuts to 375 to four. Okay. But she said that she Sees a good neutral rate is being 3%. So you want to cut twice this year, but getting to a 3% neutral rate based off today’s data, just again, more guessing more. I think it’s an important time and like I’ve said, diving into this business and, you know, I was a, a business major in college, always fascinated by economics. This is what we discussed every night at the dinner table.

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You know, Kip talked about extraordinary popular delusions and the madness of crowds. Got that book here on the shelf as well. Flipped through it many times. He’s got a big chart outside of his office as well, of tulip mania.

So that’s why I grew up looking at there and what I seem to find in the economists that I respect the most throughout history and, you know, a lot of these people are no longer with us, Thomas Soul being one of them, who still is with us. What an incredible story. That guy got a couple of his books on the shelf as well. What I think most of those economists will, will tell you, even the good ones, is that we’re dealing with sentiment, we’re dealing with human behavior. Humans by nature are unpredictable. So economics is not as much of a science as people are led to believe. It’s a social science, you could say, right. Which again, we’re dealing with human behavior, which implies unpredictability.

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So it’s always going to be more art than science. These academics at the Fed and similar economics economists think they can tell the market what to do, think they can tell consumers what to do.

When in reality they have no control over that. And here’s a prime example of Alan Greenspan. This is a quote from Alan Greenspan, right. Former Federal Reserve chair, pretty well liked Federal Reserve share. As you’ll see here in a second, we can’t really forecast all that well, and yet we pretend that we can, but we really can’t. These, these aren’t new conversations, right? It’s. I’ve gone back to this one. I’ll have to find this screenshot to share as well.

From minutes from the 1970s, the just after Arthur Burns era of inflation, where the Fed’s goal was to get back to 0% inflation. It wasn’t even until about 2012 that 2% kind of became the unofficial target, or I should say official target. It was kind of unofficial before that. So, you know, it’s, it’s. I know that the news cycle moves so quickly that sometimes we just imagine that these things are. That’s the way it’s always been. Well, it’s only been the case for 13 years, actually.

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Also same with Jay Powell. I talk about this one often. Stop giving these press conferences. These people aren’t celebrities. They’re. They should be public servants.

There’s no reason, unless they’re just a really fun person to be around, that they’re getting invited to celebrity parties.

Doesn’t really seem to fit the job description. But as many people know about Ben Bernanke, he loved playing the political game. That’s a common refrain that people talk about who worked with him. He loved the limelight. And that’s become what we’ve seen from the Federal Reserve since, and it has not served them well. Look at this. Like I said, Alan Greenspan, fairly well liked Federal Reserve chairman, obviously declined into that point. Now, you know, cut Ben Bernanke some slack from this point of view here that this was the 2008, 2009 financial crisis era, you know, a lot of people and, and we were doing the research on this for the big bribe even.

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And for me, going back and diving into history of looking at the feds, how they hiked rates leading up 2007, 2008 and likely were the straw that broke the Campbell’s back on that party. Then we got Yellen, got a slight increase in the trust of the Federal Reserve. I’m not sure why, really, as treasure Treasury Secretary, she did a terrible job as well. Then Powell was nominated by Trump. We can’t forget that as well. Kip talked about that yesterday and immediately went from seeming like somebody who was well liked by conservatives and immediately flipped. And we found out, you know, thanks to James o’, Keefe, that Jay Powell does not like President Trump at all. That’s from the first term. So of course Biden, you know, nominates him for a second term.

And see, I think that’s probably some of this increase in sentiment is people like, oh, he’s a Trump appointee, I think, oh, but he’s, he’s not going to, you know, take any from Trump. So like the, the Dems really started to like him. And then of course, Co 2020 when he turned on the unlimited money printer, went on 60 Minutes and said, yes, we just digitally create dollars and then told the government, yes, go ahead, make that bill bigger. Give the American people more money. Of course your popularity is going to go up when you’re throwing out helicopter money.

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It’s not much of a mystery there. And then look from there, the lowest rating, you know, in the last 25 years of any Fed chairman and this looks like a dead cat bounce. Absolutely. You know, the whiff on inflation. Really can’t believe that this happened after the 2018 Christmas from hell. Where again, first policy error from Jay Powell. Hiking rates into Christmas, the most illiquid, notoriously illiquid time of the year for the market. Incredibly unpopular decision, as was evidenced by the December 24th Christmas Eve sell off half day.

I had the podcast that day actually just, I mean, that actually was a pretty good buying opportunity in hindsight, but there’s just no respect for this institution anymore. Remember, they’re not federal and they don’t have any reserves. We need to blow it up and, you know, give the power of the purse back to the American people. Geez. All right, so that’s enough for the Fed here. Let’s start diving into our markets. We’re at 22 minutes. Sorry, I’ll start to wrap this up here for us.

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But it is so much exciting action here today. Another day of all time highs. I’ll go ahead and quickly, you know, quote from Kip’s update this morning because I, I don’t know if I could say it much better, but we are at extreme overbought levels. We’ve talked about that here at length. And now seasonality does begin to flip to bearish. Now we’ve seen this a couple times over the last, you know, really postco era where we’ve gotten big summer rallies like this and sell in May and go away. Hasn’t worked. And then you get a little bit of a pause at the end of summer.

You know, people might be taking profits before going on final vacations, whatever it may be. Again, we’re dealing with human emotion and sentiment. It’s always going to be unpredictable. Could be people chasing the top here.

Chasing all time highs. We could continue, absolutely. But combine the seasonality with the extreme overbought readings. We look at this as a time of caution. So if you’re not positioned in this market yet, I’ve said this on the last three weeks of podcasts. Yes, we’re at all time highs, but it’s not a reason for fomo. This is when the party begins. So if we get a little bit of a shakeout here, we would use it as a buying opportunity.

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We think it absolutely would. Would be a short lived shakeout from that point of view. I do kind of agree with Ryan Cohen’s interview if you’ve seen it on Charles Payne show earlier this week. You know, not didn’t really give GameStop investors a whole lot to go off of But I agree with the sentiment that right now we’ve just hit all time highs. You know look at this run. And this is kind of what I where I wanted to go with Kip’s update this morning. But the, the, the birth of a new bull market which we did just have a brief bear market on the tariff scare.

Again an unprecedented level of bare markets in the last four, five years since co coronavirus insanity. But the beginning of bear market bull markets always are the most explosive. Look at this here. You know s and P up 28% back at all time highs. Nasdaq up 38, 39% back at all time highs.

Wow.

I mean that is amazing kind of movement. But as we’ve seen from other V shaped recoveries like Covid, this is still the early innings of the move to get to all time highs. There will be buying opportunities along the way. All right. So for our markets today, small caps led the way up 1.2% followed there by the Nasdaq hitting an all time high. We also got an all time high today from the NASDAQ 100. Exactly what we want to see. And what else do we want to see? Semis Leading tech semis up 810 of 1% hitting just below its all time high.

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Let me check here that that might be an all time closing high. Let’s see. Yep, that looks like an all time closing high there. So hey we’ll take it you especially since it’s really a year. It took a full year for the Nasdaq to get back to the all time highs from July of 2024. And good to be putting in some space above those again. Blue sky territory. That’s when the party begins.

And they’ve continued to outperform the SB500. We’ve shared that chart here multiple times now I won’t share it here again today but the SB500 also all time high today. After that the Dow Jones up half a percent below its all time highs at 44,484. I will point out here that sentiment, you know this has been an interesting one. Let’s take a look at this here together again that’s pretty funny. Fear and greed though at extreme greed. But that’s not crazy really until you start to get to extreme greed in the 80s and 90s for weeks on end. That’s the beginning of the sign of a top.

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But we got to remember there’s other sentiment indicators out there as well. Look at the AI we almost had more bears than bulls this week. And we’re at all time highs. How did bulls fall?

Just two weeks ago, at lower levels than today, we were at nearly 6% more bulls than today.

Wow.

So optimism. Yes. Excessive optimism. I wouldn’t say so. We still have record levels of funds in money market accounts. Absolutely. Going to be coming off the sideline, folks. Again, if you have FOMO here, I get it.

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But this is, we’re so early in this bull market, you’ve got to tune out some of the noise. I know it’s so hard to do when you get onto the Internet during the day, watch news during the day. The world’s falling apart. If you watch the news but leave it on mute, check some stock charts. That’ll tell you a little bit more about where people see the world right now, where investors are putting their money right now as well. What’s considered the smart money.

Even though retail has done a fantastic job, especially in 2025, it’s about time let retail. It’s time for retail to get some wins. And speaking of that, we’ll get to some breaking news on bitcoin. You know, I’ve talked about this. With the stablecoin legislation going through today, we got an anti CBDC bill that looks like it passed as well. I’ve talked about that for a long time. Although that seems like just too obvious.

I’m looking more for a Trojan horse in this. I don’t think that bitcoin is really as anonymous at all compared to what people think it it can do.

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There may be ways to make it anonymous, but yeah, I mean anytime you have a digital paper trail, it’s going to be really hard to stay anonymous.

Still love the idea of cryptocurrencies. Just not sure if we’re quite there yet on what we really need. We’ll see. I’ll continue to talk about it more. If you’ve got any insights, I love to hear them here. We’ll get to bitcoin here more in a minute. Looking our internals on the day quickly here. Good numbers, positive across the board, over 2 to 1.

Both NYSE and NASDAQ for advanced decline. 52e highs lows coming in strong for both the NYSE and the NASDAQ. And lastly, volume coming in over 2 to 1 positive on the NYSC, 3 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ. Exactly what we want to see looking at our sectors on the day today we finished with nine out of our 11 sectors higher on the day with some alltime highs here as well as I Said earlier the financials took a little bit of a hit after earnings performing well now led the way today. Followed by tech. The tech sector hit an all time high. Then maybe a bit of a sleeper pick. The industrials hit an all time high.

I know that concerned a lot of people this week in some of the inflation reports of home materials, from linens all the way up to windows, seeing, you know, big price increases, we think that those are kind of going to come back and, and continue the trend of moving lower with inflation. Especially as we start to cut more and more of this blue tape, unnecessary democrat regulations and allow American companies to produce these things. It’ll be, it’ll take a little time but we’re going to continue our view here, remains unchanged, that inflation will move lower and it likely will surprise a lot of people. And as AI and these other factors continue to come online, these are deflationary things. Tech innovation is deflationary. Remember that. It’s important to remember right now when we hear, you know, but when you see cpi, PPI and people freaking out about inflation and then you dive into the data, you see it’s like one or two items driving any gains really. When you see truflation, a more accurate poll of inflation below 2%.

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Come on then our laggards today for our sectors again. So just to wrap up on inflation, we’ve said it for some time, we look at that as really a rear view mirror issue similar to tariffs. Then we won’t have pop ups that freak the market out or at least that’s what they’ll chalk it up to.

Any market shakeouts will be chalked up to something. They’ll try to make it inflation or tariffs or this or that or war. You know, that’s, that’s what they do, that’s what they’re paid to do because they, it gets eyeballs, it gets attention. What we do here, the VRA is not quite as sexy as that, but it’s pretty sexy for your bottom line. That’s what we would say here. Our laggards on the day for the S&P 500 sectors, healthcare and real estate, which really the real estate sector quickly here is made up of REITs. So we don’t like to follow that as much. Home builders were up nearly 1.4%.

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We do have a position as a group. We are long here at the vra. We think a lot of people have this story wrong. It’s, you know, best time to buy is when they’re blood in the streets. There’s very Few bulls out there talking about home builders right now. Finally here for today, our V commodity watch. Let me get a quick refresh of these screens here. Let me see.

Gold, really flat on the day at $3,345 an ounce. Silver hanging out right around those highest levels since September of 2011. The all time high for this group, 4950 an ounce. We are at 3843, 38, 42 or so right now. Again, right in the range of the highest level. It recently hit a 39 as well, but those are the highest level since 2011. Copper higher as well at $5.50 an ounce. Lastly here, oil flat on the day, essentially at 67.54 a barrel.

[00:32:05]:
And finally here for the day, bitcoin Breaking news here. I’ll go ahead and pull it up just so I don’t butcher it for you because I literally saw this right as. Did I just delete that link. I did. There we go. Okay, I just saw this before the close, so I don’t want to get this wrong. This is another big one here for crypto Trump to open US retirement market to crypto investors. So bitcoin, hell of a run that it’s been on here, you know, hanging out, you know, I’d love to see it build a nice support level around this 120,000 just below that level.

That’s fine with me. Right at 120 right now. And then set the move for the next leg higher. But with bitcoin, man, this thing can rip. But what we like to see here, the other ones, some of these have very interesting use cases. We’re up on this news 15. 7%, 8%, 9%, 12%. I mean, that’s some serious action there, you know.

[00:33:07]:
So it’s not just bitcoin anymore, but bitcoin is the major player on the block. That’s when we, like here at the vra. You know, some of these other coins might have great infrastructure and great points that they can sell on, but. But they don’t have a. Not all of them at least have a finite amount. Like there is Bitcoin. 21 million only goes out eight decimal places. Eight satoshis, if you will.

Really no other greater supply and demand story out there. But folks, that is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to join us here every day at the market close for the V Investing podcast. You can sign up @ VRALetter.com, click the podcast link there at the top. We’d love to have you at with us. Like I said, maybe no podcast tomorrow. So if not, hope you all have a great weekend out there. We’ll see you back here on Monday for the close.