In today's podcast, Kip Herriage dives into the current state of the market, discussing the broadening market trends and a new bull market reminiscent of the 1995-2000 era. He shares insights on the strength of the economy and the booming tech sector, emphasizing the significance of semiconductors and the rise of artificial intelligence.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Thursday afternoon, everyone. Kip Herriage here with the daily VRA investing podcast.

Hope you had a great day today. If you’re on Nvidia, you had a fantastic day today, of course, after their massive beat yesterday. Tyler covered that yesterday, so we’ll cover it just a little bit today. Also today, all time highs against SVF hundred. Dow Jones, Nasdaq 100 hundred.

Semiconductors again, all hitting fresh all time highs again today. And as Tyler just informed me, we had four of our eleven S 500 sectors also hit an all time high today. The market is clearly broadening out. I think we can do away with the fears that this is a too thin, too narrow market. That is not the case, really hasn’t been for some time. Just everyone’s been very focused, hyper focused on the magnificent seven and mega cap tech stocks, understandably. And yes, they have without question made up a higher percentage of these outside gains. But the key point here is the market has been broadening for some time, and that alleviates a lot of our fears.

[00:01:08]:
Our concerns actually has for some time now that this market’s too thin, because thin markets, it only benefits a few companies, of course, and the average person is not going to own those stocks. Only. We want to find the next palantir. Palantir, we own that as well. We want to find the next Nvidia, right? We want to find the next stock that’s going to go up 500% to 1000% in the next one to two years. And that’s what our focus is here. But for the average person, you’re not going to own a portfolio of one or two or three stocks. You’re not going to benefit from a thin market.

So that concern is no longer with us. Also, and this happened pretty fast. It was just last week we were talking about the market being extreme overbought. Well, here we are just a few days later, and now, even after today, even after the gain to today, our overbought conditions have evaporated. Yeah, we’re still a little overbought, I guess, but nowhere near extreme overbought. Nothing like that whatsoever, matter of fact. And again, we continue to think it’s very important today. As of today, the percentage of stocks SVF hundred above the 50 day moving average is only 64%.

We’re at 93 in January to start the year. The percentage SPF hundred stocks above the 200 day moving average is at 75%. Again, we are at 82% to start the year. So we have again, based on a lot of different metrics. We have forever to go before we hit extreme overbought on steroids, a level that would tell us, okay, it is time to take some profits. We’re just not there. We haven’t been there. Also, we’re seeing clear consolidation that took place over the last week.

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Again, these are healthy events that take place in a normal bull market, which, remember, we’re just in the second year of this new bull market. And as we’ve said for a long time, it’s just textbook. What we’re seeing is textbook. No two markets are the same. But if you’re drawing parallels to 1995 to 2000, which a lot of people now are, of course, we forecast that a year and a half ago, but we’re not there. We’re just not there to that kind of euphoria. Certainly more bullish. These kind of moves higher tend to make an investing public more bullish, obviously.

But if this is 95 to 2000, we think it’s going to be bigger than that. Again, this is not a new forecast from us. This is something we put in the big bribe. We’ve been talking about this now for, again, for a year and a half plus is that we’re going to get back to the same kinds of insanity that took place from 95 to 2000. It won’t just be Nvidia that’s skyrocketing or a few, a handful of other stocks that have gone crazy here. Yeah, that’s a sign that it’s starting. But you got to remember, from 95 to 2000, we had a lot of companies, we had a lot of people that were leaving their jobs to go day trade like they were leaving in droves. That hasn’t happened yet.

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We had for better than two years, we had more than 100 companies that went public and on the very first day of trading went up more than 100%. There were years where we had 50, 60, 70 companies that went up 300% plus. So the ipo market has not come BAck yet. It’s still pretty dead, although that’s about to change. I will tell you, a lot of companies in the pipeline ready to go public. We saw Reddit file today. They’re getting close. A lot of companies, we really DOn’t want to see that that draws liquidity out of our current holdings.

But again, it’s a natural evolution of a bull market. It’s going to happen. Can’t do ANYThing about it except Get ReADY for it. BUt again, that’s a process. We had, again, a two and a half year bull market Just in ipos, 95 to 2000 was just red hot, and it remained red hot for an extended period with shakeouts, as Always, but still the trend remained sharply higher. And then the other biggie that I think might sound a little crazy to say this, but we remember 95 to 2000 getting it. We didn’t have UBER and LYFt in, of course, but Getting in a taxi and your taxi driver was giving YoU stock tips. Hey, are you an investor? What do you think about this? Take a look at this.

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This happened. And so it reminded us of the 1920s, during the roaring 20s, reminded us of what happened at the end of that, which was that wall street guys were getting their stock tips from shoe shine guys. So that happened then. So you look for the parallels. So, yeah, we’re starting to see some of that begIn, but it’s only starting to begin. And the reason we think it’s going to be bigger, the structural distinction between this market, this economy, and what’s happened in past bull markets. We just never had an economy this strong. We haven’t.

I’m not going to cover all the details Again. You probably got tired of hearing me say it. But some of the most important things against consumer net wealth. All time high home prices. All time high. One third of homeowners own their home outright with no mortgage. Corporate debt to market caps at a 50 year low. Consumers have reduced their debt to a net to disposable income by 25% in the last 15 years since the financial crisis.

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So the strength of this economy, both for consumers and for corporate America, is just extraordinary. And when you combine that with not only the fact that tech stocks are red hot, semis, of course, powering ahead, Nvidia, et cetera. In addition to that, though, what else is happening? We have cryptocurrencies. Again, this is all adding to the building euphoria that is beginning to evolve into this market as investors come back. But again, it’s a process and it’s just starting, but this is likely going to get crazy. And if you think like an example of crazies today, Nvidia, and what happened there, well, imagine that happening every day. Imagine that happening, one company like that happening every day. But not just 110, and not just for one day, but it happened for an extended period.

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So the Fed, this may be what the Fed is actually looking at. They actually may be looking at, okay, irrational exuberance. Do we want to allow the market to melt up because of what the don’t? My opinion is, again, this is not what their mandate is. It’s not to manage a stock market. That’s never been a mandate. But this is not our parents Fed. This is a much different Federal Reserve. They like to tinker with everything possible and just get in everybody’s business as much as possible.

So, J. Powell, just get out of the way. Stop your monthly meetings. We don’t need those. We don’t need a different Fed chair. Fed governor speaking at ten college campuses every day with varying messages. So just kind of fade back into the background. Let us go about our business and get back to some semblance of normalcy.

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Okay, let’s get to the markets here. I got a few things to cover with you. Again, all time highs today. Dow Jones all time high up 1.1%. Not at the highs of the day. Pretty close to the highs of the day, though. Dow, one point, was up about 520 points. Big day, though, again, dow up 456 today up 1.18%.

S&P 500, up a big 105 points. Also, all time high, up 2.1%. Nasdaq up almost 3%. 460 point gain in Nasdaq, still not an all time high, but getting closer to it. Not even a 52 week high, but also getting close to that. We’re about 1% away. Nasdaq up 460 points. That’s 2.96%.

And finally, russell 2000. Small caps. They are an animal of their own, a creature of their own. When they move, they move quick and in a hurry, but they tend to lag. And then here comes the move that was the case this morning until they got hot in the afternoon. Did finish up right at 1% of the day, up 19 points. Rust, 2000. And the biggie, our leader, market leader, semiconductors, again, video, of course, helps with this, but SMH, the semiconductor ETF, up 6.8% today.

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Just extraordinary. And again, I wrote this up this morning. I think it’s just important that people understand you don’t have to own a single company to make a lot of money. Leveraged etfs aren’t for everybody, but if you understand what they are, you understand not just the upside potential, but the downside potential, the risk to the downside of owning these. There are a lot of leverage etfs that are better than others. One of those is the semiconductor ETF, which we own. Soxl, the three time semi ETF. I ran the numbers this morning for everybody because we have people asking, why don’t we own Nvidia? Well, we don’t, because I don’t know that company.

And instead of trying to learn one company that can make us a lot of money, again, hindsight is always fun. We used Soxel, the three time leverage ETF. Here are the returns today, for example, Soxl was up 15%, Nvidia up 16%. That’s essentially a push. How about from the bear market lows of October 13, 2022, Nvidia is up 602%, stocks is up 552%. So again, very close to a push. We like the diversification of having an investment in etfs. We like the leverage that leveraged etfs give you.

Again, as long as you’re aware of what these investments represent, I believe there are better ways to play major moves in sectors, specifically in tech, because that’s where bull markets live. I’m going to show tomorrow morning. If you’ve listened to our podcast long, this won’t be new to you. But the semis lead the market. The semis lead. Nasdaq leads the market. This is the way it’s been since the birth of quantitative easing in 2008 2009. If you get the direction right of semis by looking at a chart, then the market’s going to follow.

[00:11:55]:
That’s been your broad market tell right there. And once again today, semiconductors. Yes, you have hundred relative strength chart hit another new high today. Again, it’s been leading the entirety from the October bear market lows of 2022. We think that’s going to continue to be the case. It’s a great tell. If you watch one thing, watch the semis, that gives you direction. Again today, semis up 6.8% on the day.

Just insane. Nvidia, I just mentioned gross margins of 76%. Analysts are saying that before competition catches up with them, they’ve got a Runway into 2025 to keep growing at an insane rate like they have been definitely firing off cylinders. Artificial intelligence is not a fad. It is not a fad. Rather it’s the modern day reincarnation of the 1995 to 2000 dot boom. But again, with this, we also have the crypto boom, which is financial engineering against what we wrote about in the big bride. It’s all playing out now, and this is just the time to remain very locked in.

[00:13:03]:
We’re going to have overbought shakeouts that happens in every market. But by the dip, we believe will continue to be the smartest of smart money strategies. And so that’s how we’re going to keep playing it. Led by tech, of course, and this incredible boom time that we’re in now, again, it’s a very special time to be an investor. And if I have to be honest about it, it’s a very special time to be in the America that has the ability to take advantage of this. We have two americas. There’s no getting around that. Look, I come from that second.

That’s. That’s how I grew up. We didn’t have money. We were poor. All that made me want to do was work really hard to not be poor the rest of my life and to make sure my kids had a different life than the one that I had, financially speaking. So, yeah, if you’re in that first America, congratulations. Stay locked in, stay focused. And I’m going to keep rooting for second America.

[00:14:01]:
Because in this economy, if you’re hungry, in this economy, you just don’t have an excuse unless you’ve got some physical limitations, mental limitations. But if you’re a hardworking, normal person, there is no excuse from not being successful in this environment. And I believe that’s going to continue to be the case. I think it’s very good for the entirety of America. And again, we’re in the roaring two thousand and twenty s. I don’t think it’s a reason to apologize for that. There’s a reason to keep working hard, to joy, to share the wealth, to give back, be philanthropic, help others however you can. But again, the love of money may be a sin, right? The love of money.

But making money is not a sin. And I believe the best way to help other people is to not be broke. That’s at least been my experience of my life so far. But for the one America, yeah. This is time to stay locked in. This boom time is going to continue. Matter of fact, it’s likely just getting started, especially with this happening in AI, which is just extraordinary. What else? Here, I had one other.

[00:15:18]:
I’m going to cover cryptocurrencies in a little bit, but I want to share this with you. I did an interview yesterday with Wayne Allen Root, just a dear friend of mine for 20 years now. Had me on his real America’s voice tv show yesterday, and he wanted to talk about bitcoin. Wayne has not been a fan of cryptocurrencies. I think really, he’s a big gold guy. Like I’ve been my entire life, and we’ve always had that in common. But I just think, like a lot of people, Wayne just didn’t have time to really get to understand what does this represent? So he had me on the show yesterday to explain to people why now is a good time to own bitcoin, especially with the having coming up in mid April. And I ran the numbers, and I think this is what people should be focused on.

We’ve had three havings to date. They do them every four years. So the one in April is going to be number four. But they had one at the first one in 2012, the second 2016, again, the third in 2020, every four years. And this is by design. Every having makes it twice as expensive for bitcoin miners to mine. And this is how they slow the rollout of bitcoin. Genius in design.

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And I think the last bitcoin is set to be mined to get to 21 million, like 21 40. It’ll probably speed up a little bit, but we’re a long ways away. But again, it becomes more and more expensive. Timely, costly, difficult to mine bitcoin over time. Again, just genius design here. But here are the returns. Here’s why people should probably look to buy this in advance of, or at least at the time of the having. Because in 2012, twelve months after the having, bitcoin was up 7900%.

You made 79 times your money. In 2016, 18 months, a little bit longer, 18 months after the having. In 2016, bitcoin, you would have made 29 times your money, 2900%. And finally that 2020 having. Again, in 18 months, bitcoin rose 700%. So you made seven times your money. So the returns are dropping after each having. And again, I think that’s probably.

[00:17:32]:
I actually don’t think that’s going to be a trend. I think as the shortage of bitcoin becomes greater and greater, because what we also know is 70% to 80% of people that own bitcoin, they’re hobblers. They are not going to sell. This is fairly well documented. Now, that means the scarcity value and the supply demand component, which is, of course, the component of every investment relationship, is going to continue to drive bitcoin higher. That’s why I think these dips are going to be shorter and shorter lived. Bitcoin hit extreme overbought on steroids. As overbought as you can get on our system.

Last Thursday, Friday, well, it had a little bit of a shakeout, but here we go again. Bitcoin today back up to 52,000. Just a little bit lower right now. But actually, let me get a 51 seven right now. So again, the High was 52. Nine all time high, 69,000 to change. But I think the ods are pretty high that we’re going to hit all time highs in advance of the having and then march on from there. As I said, I expect the bitcoin to hit 100,000 this year.

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That’s been our target for the entirety of 2024. And I think it’s actually likely that bitcoin tops 100,000 either before the having or just shortly thereafter. So again, we’re talking about two months, folks. And if it doesn’t, guess what? You’ve got a great asset you can hold until it hits a million, if that’s what your target is, which a lot of people believe it will. I think they’re right. Of course. Who knows on the timing of that? It could happen a lot faster than most people think, though I do think that’s going to be the case. It’s an asset that we believe belongs in every investor’s portfolio, and we’re a broken record on this.

We’ve said this for a number of years. All right, let’s take a look under the hood today. All right, let me pull up the refresh here on the eternals. The Eternals have held up so much better, and this is one of the reasons that Tyler and I were like, you know what? This doesn’t feel like it’s going to be a serious shakeout because the internals just never got horribly weak. And remember, we went through a stretch with absolutely horrible internals. But that’s not the case anymore, and it hasn’t been the case during this latest pause. But today, they weren’t great. They were positive across the board, just not what you’d expect.

[00:19:56]:
With the market this incredibly strong, again hitting all time highs in our major indexes, at least Dow Jones SV of hundred Nasdaq 100 and semis. But advanced decline today was positive for Nasdaq, but only by about 400 issues. So positive but not by a lot. NYSE was positive, advanced decline, but only by about 700 issues. So again, not even two to one there volume was positive for both NYSE and Nasdaq. Nasdaq 1.5 to one positive and NYSE only 1.3 to one positive. So again, positive readings, but not what you’d really want to see on a day like this. I kind of expect we might see better tomorrow.

What we did see today, however, was a very solid NYSE advanced decline. NYSE Advanced has hit an all time high again today, or at least the highest since 2021, I should say. So. The market again is broadening out. We also had today 490 stocks hitting a new 52 week high. That’s Nasdaq NYC. Combined, 490 stocks hitting a new 52 week high to just 153, hitting a new 52 week low. Our sector watch much better here.

[00:21:04]:
Ten of eleven sectors finished Saturday again, four sectors finishing today at all time. Highs, but ten of eleven finished the high on the day led to the upside by consumer discretionary, up 2.1%. Consumer state. Let me do a quick refresh here. This is in right order. There we go. I was wrong. Technology, of course, finished today as number one on the board, up 4.3% today.

Thank you again, Nvidia. Thank you. Semis. Consumer discretionary, up 2.1%. Communication services, which is essentially tech, up 1.6%. And then we had a lot of others near up 1%. The only group lower utilities, which are, again, they’re their own bird. Okay.

[00:21:44]:
Utilities today just down seven tenths of 1%. Again, ten of eleven sectors finish on the day. Commodity watch again. I covered this with Wayne yesterday as well. There’s just no doubt about it. The move higher in bitcoin has for some time now been draining energy away, at least enthusiasm away from the action of precious metals. Gold is only $140 away from all time highs. But again, no one’s talking about it anymore because all the excitement is about bitcoin.

Gold today finishing right now flat at $2,034 an ounce. Silver down nine cents an ounce at twenty two seventy seven. Copper up two cent a pound at three eightyn. Copper looks very good here, which bodes well for the global economy. As Dr. Copper, of course, again, Tyler is our sector and international guy. I believe he said Japan just hit an all time high, which is saying something. You got about 30 something years for that.

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It’s big. And they managed to keep rates at 0% while doing it, something nobody thought they could do. And Germany, the DAX index, the most important equity index in Europe, obviously the strongest country in Europe, financially speaking. Germany also, I believe, hit an all time high today. So the growth internationally is taking place. We just never had the recession that so many thought we were going to have. It just did not happen. Copper should benefit from that.

Again, three eightynight a pound today. Crude oil today also oil is going to benefit from this as well, especially with China coming back, which we believe it is. Their stocks are starting to act better after just being destroyed. And then also their tech stocks are starting to lead. That’s what you want to see. I’m actually going to write that up tomorrow morning. Crude oil today up barrel at 78 35. And finally of the day, again, bitcoin, 51,700.

That is up 1.6% on the day. We’re now about one $200 away from a new 52 week high. And again, all time high, about 69,000 and change. All right, folks, I always appreciate you listening. Hope you had a great day and even better night. We’ll see you back here again tomorrow after the close.