In today's episode, Tyler breaks down an exciting day of stock market action to kick off the week. We will dive into today's record-breaking session and discuss the promising economic outlook that lies ahead. We will also cover the incredible rally in Bitcoin, which has now taken it to over $88,000 a Bitcoin. Lastly, Tyler explores what we have to look forward to in the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. Tune into today's podcast to learn more.

Don’t look back because the market is closed. Good Monday afternoon, everyone. Tyler here at you for today’s VRA Investing podcast. Hope you all had a great start to your week out there. Hope you had a great weekend as well. Got a little bit of the presidential celebration in there this weekend and the markets kicked off the week with the celebration here as well, with all time highs. And we’ll get to that here in a moment. But first and foremost, I want to thank all of our veterans out there today.

I know we’ve got a good amount of them in our audience here and just want to say thank you for your service, for your patriotism and your sacrifice and courage, for everything you’ve done for our great country. You are truly the ones who’ve made America great. And now it’s time to make it even greater for the next few years here and beyond as well. So happy Veterans Day to all of you out there. Again, thank you for your service from all of us here at the VRA. So on another positive note here as well, the markets are continuing to like the idea of a second term for President Elect Donald Trump here in our view of what is just the beginning of many great things to come here. We really do, and we’ve said it for some time, even under the Biden Harris administration, we said that no matter what they did, it was not going to be enough to derail what we’ve seen happening in America, which was really kicked off in many ways in 2016 when Donald Trump was first elected. Now, I’ll be the first person to tell you that I come from a mindset of if you believe that who the president is matters, then you’re already a leg down, right? You should be of the mindset that you can succeed in any environment.

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Right now, there is no doubt that who the president is does matter, as we have seen over the last four years versus the four years before that and what we expect from the next four years. But we remain firm in our call here and it’s only gotten stronger that we are due for an economic boom here in America through a technological renaissance, if you will. If we can get like is planned, some of the regulation out of the way, really stop hamstringing American businesses and individuals to do what we do best and that is to thrive in a free market economy. And we think that’s what’s coming. We think that’s a big reason why we see such a remarkable next few decades for our great country. Here. We’ve got the innovation revolution. We’re in the middle of the roaring 2020s here as well.

And now we’re about to get the Trump Economic Miracle 2.0. So it’s got a lot to look forward to here and the markets are front running it. Yes, we still see this. Yes, we just hit all time highs. This is still front running of what many expect to come here and people waking up and realizing what’s about to happen here. Remember, going into this week, there’s still roughly six and a half trillion dollars on the sidelines sitting in money market accounts. Kip talked about this on his podcast Friday here as well, that there were likely a whole lot of people over the weekend that checked their retirement accounts. And they’re probably looking at good numbers because our markets are at all time highs.

But they’re realizing just how good their returns could have been, that they have been under invested for the potential of a second Trump term here, which is now going to happen.

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So a lot of people realizing I am underexposed to this market here. I can’t tell you, you know, Kip and I both how many texts and calls and emails we’ve gotten from people just now saying, you know, hey, wanted to wait until after the election to really get into this market. And now it’s here. You know, where, where do I go?

And we’ll tell you right now. We don’t think you’re late either. If you fall into that camp, that’s okay. There’s still so much upside to come here and now. It won’t all happen overnight. Rome wasn’t built in a day. But to give you some context of what we see coming is we remain firm in our view here as well that by 2030 we’re looking at NASDAQ 40,000. That would be a 100% gain from here in the next five years.

Right. Dow Jones 100,000 by, by 2030 as well, again, over a hundred percent gain from these levels. So that’s what we have to look forward to in our view. And so no, you’re, if you not in this market yet, there’s still time here, but it’s time to start acting right. And of course along the way there’s going to be even bigger winners than the major indexes. That’s what we try to specialize in here at the vra. So if you’re not with us already, come and join us. We’ve got a 14 day free trial going on right now, so absolutely no risk to you.

Just to see what we are positioned like right now. So come and join us. You can find it@vraletter.com. you’ll also find our podcasts there as well. If you aren’t already a subscriber, we would love to have you with us. All right, so that said, let’s take a look at our major indexes on the day today. As we did hit all time highs right out of the gate this morning, we got a little bit of sideways action throughout the day, you know, a little bit of, of I’m sure, a little bit of hesitancy. We do have some economic data coming out this week.

We’ll get the latest look at inflation with CPI coming out Wednesday. But overall for our major indexes we also we didn’t finish at the highs of the day, but we finished well off the lows. And you’ll see it in our internals here in a minute as well that even when the NASDAQ went negative on the day to day, our internals remained positive. Good numbers there from our internals today, which I’ll get to. But leading the way today was the Russell 2000 and my screen is just refreshed here. So give me a second. Before the Russell 2000 ETF, which is IWM, up 1 1/2% on the day, again leading the way. Some of that likely due to the front running of the Trump trade as well, where US Businesses are expected to do very well and hitting a 52 week high today from the small caps, excuse me, for the Russell 2000 that is just barely shy of the all time high three years ago from 2021.

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So small caps, you know, been doing nothing during the Biden administration. Now we can get back to again a free enterprise, free market style of economy. I won’t say we’ll get exactly there, but closer to it again, deregulation, tax cuts, all of these things help small caps in a big way. So good to see. I mean we’re right at those all time highs from 2021. And then once you get into all time high territory, this applies not just to the small caps but stocks to Bitcoin. Once you hit blue sky territory, you know, obviously with stocks the sky’s the limit. But when you hit blue sky territory, there’s also a psychological impact to that that a lot of technicians talk about and we’ll talk about it here later with Bitcoin as well, that once you get to blue sky territory, again, all time highs, that means no one who’s ever bought whatever stock we’re talking about, no one who’s ever bought it has a loss, Right.

And so that is a lot of them, I think, oh well, I’ve got gains, maybe I’ll sell. No, people get greedy at these levels and want to hold on and buy more.

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So there is an interesting psychological factor there that once you get to all time highs, or in the case of bitcoin, you know, a big round number breaking through a threshold of a big round number, then it really is off to the races. And we talk about this here often as well. In a bull market, the party doesn’t even begin until you’ve hit all time highs. So the party hasn’t even started yet for the Russell 2000 as we see it. Next up here, the Dow Jones up just under 710 of 1% at an all time high, up 300 points on the day to 44,293. And just what you want to see, transports leading The Dow hitting a 52E high here, just below its all time high, which is a controversial all time high to those in the industry. But still, regardless, 52e highs are also very good to see. Transports up over 1.2% on the day today.

S&P 500 a little over flat today, up fractionally by 1/10 of 1%, but enough for an all time high. Closing above 6,000 at 6,001 for the S&P 500. Also an all time high today from the Nasdaq, up again just fractionally, but closed well off of the lows of the day, up.06% to 19,298. So good day again here. I will point out though, the semis not having as much of a good day, a little bit of uncertainty there, especially coming from the CHIPS Act. There are some rumors that Trump wants to gut it completely and start over, which I haven’t spent the time to really dig into the finer details of it. I can tell you right now that I most likely agree with this, especially for the reasons they were citing, that there were a whole lot of like DEI initiatives in there and things like that. So yes, gutting it and restarting absolutely fine here.

One of the things that Kip and I talked about earlier as well, when you have a product like the semiconductors that are in such high demand, what do, what do we need this CHIPS act for?

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Instead let’s offer incentives instead of paying them, right? Open a plant here, move it from Taiwan into the US and you’ll get a tax break. Not that you’re going to get billions of dollars in funding that is taxable.

That’s not what we want. It made me think of. There was an interview probably about a year ago now with Elon Musk and they talked about a part of one of the government plans is probably the Inflation Reduction act or something that there was a big subsidy portion in there or it could have been another type of deal, could be EV initiative, but there’s a big subsidy in there for charging stations. And Elon Musk said, take it out, just delete it.

That’s exactly what he said. And he said it made such a good point. Are there subsidies for gas stations? No. People use them.

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The goal should be to make money off of them. At the end of the day, we live in a, in a mostly capitalist society.

And should be heading more that direction now. So same thing applies to the semiconductors as well. When you have a product that’s that high in demand, yes, we want to bring manufacturing over to the U.S. but let’s read, let’s look at the incentive, the incentive structure here as opposed to just give them money to bring it over.

Because nothing gets done. Nothing of, of the semiconductor deal. The, the, I believe it’s the Chips Act.

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Of the billions of dollars allocated, only not even 100 million of it had been used because companies didn’t want to have to apply and meet all of the different, again, DEI type of regulations here. They didn’t want to be beholden to those agreements. So I’m fine with gutting it, but if that means that the semis take a little dip in the short term, no, no big deal. You know, this is still a group that we remain extremely bullish on, reacting to a little bit of news here as we see it. But again, it’s what we do, remain extremely bullish and the fact that we continue to hit all time highs while the semis isn’t, you know, we get a lot of questions about it. I would say it’s even more bullish because it shows that it’s not just the leadership taking this market higher. This is a broadening effect of the market here. And you’ll see it in the internals, which I’ve got next up here.

But again, point being, this is a broadening that we’re seeing if we’re hitting all time highs without the most important sector also hitting all time highs, not to mention not hitting all time highs, down two and a quarter percent on the day.

And again we remain bullish on this. So it’s not great to see. But key point broadening, which ultimately is Bullish as well. All right, so taking a look now at the internals on the day. Speaking of broadening again this morning the Nasdaq dipped negative. This is about 40 minutes after the Open and we expected to check the internals and started to see weakening internals. That was just not the case. They remained in the green and even got stronger by some metrics throughout the day.

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So we had advancing stocks beating out declining stocks. No big beats here, no two to one beats or anything. But positive. Firmly positive on both the Nyse and the Nasdaq. 52e highs lows, very good numbers here. Coming in roughly well over a thousand stocks hitting 52 week highs combined NYSE and NASDAQ to just 139 stocks hitting 52 week lows. So almost 10 to 1 positive on the day there. Lastly, volume, very good numbers here, shy of 2 to 1 positive but firmly positive for the NYSE.

And then over 2 to 1 positive on the NASDAQ today. Roughly 70% upside volume, which you don’t see as much of that as you do in the nyse.

There’s a whole lot of small caps and not quite ready for primetime players in the Nasdaq. So it’s not that often that you get 70, 80% upside volume. It does happen, but it’s a little bit rarer than the nyse. So very good to see on the day today. Next up, looking at our sectors on the day, we finished with 6 out of our 11s P500 sectors higher on the day to day. And as you might expect more all time highs here. We were led by Consumer Discretionary hitting an all time high today, up 1.75%. And of course it helps that Tesla is the second largest holding for this sector.

Tesla up nearly 9% on the day to day. Also an all time high here up in after hours trading now as well. This is a stock we’ve been pounding the table on for months and it’s just been on an incredible run. Let’s take a look here. From the lows of the year to today up over 150%. It hit $138 a share in April.

Huge move for Tesla. We do expect that to continue. They’re just, they’re valued at a little over a trillion dollars now and most people still wrongly assume that this is just a car company. Kip and I talk about it here often. They’re not a car company. This is a tech company. Look at all of their other product offerings that are on the way here. Whether it’s autonomous driving, which would make it a car company.

But then you also gotta look at their hardware, right, which is their actual car. The autonomous side is very much a tech thing of which Tesla has more data than its nearest competitor, probably 10 times over what their nearest competitor has. I talked about this a few weeks back, but when you look at the number of Teslas on the road, which I believe is a little over 7 million, their closest competitor in autonomous driving is Waymo, has a fleet of less than a thousand vehicles.

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So even if it’s a Tesla that’s not working on full self driving, it’s still collecting data and training the AI systems to use this. That’s how far ahead Tesla is than its nearest competitor. Then you look at the robotics division as well and there’s just so many exciting things in this story. So yes, we do remain extremely bullish here even at all time highs. All right, after that we had the financials also hitting an all time high on the day. Big banks have been performing well in the anticipation of a second Trump presidency as well. You know, maybe that might be a little short lived. We still do some big investigations into these big banks as well that hopefully we get something done about.

Next up, Industrials also all time high here today and communication services just shy of an all time intraday high, but an all time closing high here as well. Energy also higher on the day, hitting its highest level since April of this year. So again good readings from our sectors on the day. Our laggards as you might expect with the semis down, Big tech was actually our laggard on the day to day down 8/10 of 1%, nearly 9,10 of 1% followed by real estate and health care. Finally here for today, our VRA commodity watch as we are seeing some red on the screen here today. A little bit of a refresher. Gold now flat on the day today, but precious metals in general having a bit of a rough day here today. Part of that may be the strength that we’ve seen in the dollar here.

You know, tough to say right now where we are. We’re still as we see it in a long term bear market for the dollar. And remember the dollar went down considerably in Trump’s first year in office. So we’ll have to wait and see where the dollar goes. Was down over 2% on the day to $2,619 an ounce. Silver down over 2% as well to $30.78 an ounce. Copper now flat on the day at $4 and 24 cents a pound and oil back below $70 a barrel here again, we, we’ve talked about this here often as well. You know, interesting to see energy stocks up on a day with oil down 3% now again, it’s $68.14 a barrel.

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We think that that’s going to continue though. You know, lower oil prices doesn’t necessarily mean it’s bearish for energy companies. Yes, they’d like a higher profit margin, but these are companies that have been restructured from the heyday of 2014 when oil was over $120 a barrel and they were just printing money.

And spending it. Two, these companies have good balance sheets now and so we can get back to a deregulatory environment where they can drill, baby, drill. You know, they don’t mind oil prices being a little bit lower because they have higher volume as well. So they’re still making money. But I talked about this on Wayne show last time I was on how I felt about the price of oil. And you know, especially with Trump being in office, I think the price of oil could go lower. Will it? I won’t say that definitively, but it could go lower. But I don’t think that that’s a huge problem for energy stocks here.

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And finally here for today, one of the most exciting stories here of the day. After a huge weekend for bitcoin, it continued into today, now up 7.88% at $87,000 of Bitcoin got as high as 88, $347 a Bitcoin. It’s certainly one of the biggest winners of Trump being re elected here. We’ve said that’s often the case because there was clearly just one pro crypto president.

Trump tried to make that point very clear in his campaigning. But here’s some even more convincing evidence. The first from Kobisi letter so far, 50 out of the 58 candidates for US Congress that were backed by pro crypto PACs have won their races. The shocking part here is the other eight, their races aren’t done yet. How that we are now almost a week since the election and we don’t know the end of some of these races is absolutely unbelievable. You know, I’m sure you’ve seen the the chart now that shows the states that come, the only states that Kamala won, the states that don’t require photo ID for presidency. Now, I didn’t mean to get off onto the political topic here. I’m talking about bitcoin.

But you can see what an impact that those states will have by a federal election reform. We’ve got to require voter ID in order to vote. It’s a no brainer here. How can you, you have to use ID for everything else in your life. Liquor store, get to the airport.

But for some reason we don’t do it for voters for voting. I mean, I don’t think there’s anybody out there who can make a compelling argument against it.

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And that should tell you enough right there. But that’s the fact of where we’re at. We’ve got eight remaining races that have yet to be called, but those are the pro crypto candidates. And so far we’ve gotten a good amount in. And according to Cathie Wood’s arc, they just put this out today as well. We now have at least 266 Pro crypto members of the House of Representatives, another 18 Pro crypto members of the Senate. So we think that’s going to be incredibly bullish, especially if we can get in the strategic bitcoin reserve, which we think this is what we’re seeing the action in bitcoin is the front running of that. Now we have said from the beginning of the year, really that bitcoin, this is the year it hits 100,000.

We’ve been well on the way to that now. Now. But if you’re afraid of bitcoin because it’s gone up so quickly in price and is at an all time high here, just remember a few key points here. Again, if we’re talking about a strategic bitcoin reserve, what we’re seeing right now, and Kip talked about this on Friday, that smaller governments are going to begin buying bitcoin in anticipation of the US Doing this. They’ve got another couple months before Trump is fully inaugurated. So this is some front running here. And then the US Will have to pay up for it. But in our view, it would be worth it.

Now remember, we already have a strategic reserve of gold that is allegedly kept at. Was it Fort Knox where the Fed stores the nation’s gold? I agree with Ron Paul on this one. Again, they need to be audited. But the market cap of gold globally is roughly $17 trillion. Even with this huge move in bitcoin, the market cap for bitcoin is only just about right at or just over $1.7 trillion. Yes, that’s correct. Bitcoin is one tenth the market cap of gold right now. Now, I’m not trying to compare the two here.

Gold as a legacy store of value is firmly ingrained in Our society. And even with the pullback today, we do remain bullish on gold. We think it absolute, absolutely has a place in your portfolio. So again, not trying to compare the two, but trying to give you some frame of reference for just what bitcoin can do. From here it could double again from 88,000 to, you know, over 170,000 and still be one, you know, a 3.4 trillion dollar market cap versus gold 17 trillion. We think that that potential is absolutely possible here. It makes us even more bullish on bitcoin, actually, believe it or not. So all of these things being said, that gives you a good frame of reference.

But from a sentiment point of view, I thought this was interesting. Google searches for bitcoin are well, well below their all time highs. Which, you know, regardless of how you feel about Google.

[00:24:51]:
This is an interesting barometer to look at for sentiment. It tells you that we’re just not anywhere near the euphoria moment, nowhere near the euphoria that we saw in 2017 where a whole lot of people either thought about buying bitcoin and didn’t or maybe bought and sold their bitcoin. You know, it does surprise me with how bullish we’ve been on bitcoin, but how many people continue to tell us they do not own any even if they’re a believer in it?

Oh yeah, I’ve been following it for years, but I just, I haven’t pulled the trigger on it. It’s a little risky or whatever. Totally get it. But from where we stand, we are nowhere near a euphoria kind of moment here. And you know, it’s kind of one of those things. If you buy it today at an all time high, are you going to have a profit right away? No one can guarantee that. But I can tell you that over the next year, and especially the next four years of Trump in office. Yes, even at all time highs, we remain extremely bullish on bitcoin here.

And how can you not be? You’ve got companies like MicroStrategy, if you’re familiar with the story, and Michael Saylor that that was up even more than bitcoin on the day. But what he’s done time and time again, you know, taking on either loans or financing for his company to buy more bitcoin and he just came out buying more bitcoin today at all time highs, right. So that’s the kind of action that we’re getting in bitcoin. And it does seem like there’s a magnet to 100,000 here now. I don’t want to speak too soon or jinx it or anything, but back to what I was talking about earlier with the A lot of technicians, especially old school technicians, will tell you once you break through a round number like 100,000, that also can be when the party begins. It’s something about that psychological level, you know, whether it’s a stock that breaks 100 and then goes to 120 all of a sudden.

It’s not that uncommon to see it happen that when you break through a round number, you never see it again. We think that could be the kind of situation we’re looking at with Bitcoin here as well. So we’re not even at that level yet. But yes, as you can tell, we remain extremely bullish here. Folks. That is all that we have time for here today. Please be sure to subscribe to receive our VRA podcasts every day at the Market Close. You can sign up@vraletter.com, click the podcast link at the top, and we’d love to have you with us.

Thanks again for tuning in. Until next time, we’ll see you back here tomorrow for the Closet.